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  • Mon, May 4 2009
  • 7:26 AM » Treasurys flat ahead of debt sales
    Published Mon, May 04 2009 7:26 AM by CNN
    Treasurys were mixed Monday morning as investors remain concerned about more debt coming into the market and focused on signs the economy may be stabilizing.
  • Sun, May 3 2009
  • 5:13 PM » Housing 'becoming more affordable'
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 5:13 PM by www.topix.net
    Housing affordability for first-time buyers has trebled since house prices started falling 18 months ago, research shows.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.topix.net
  • 2:51 PM » Federal loan program set to kick off in June
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 2:51 PM by www.topix.net
    The Federal Reserve announced Friday that it will launch a much-awaited program in June to bolster commercial real-estate lending.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.topix.net
  • 2:51 PM » Mortgage Fraud: How the FBI Blew It
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 2:51 PM by The Big Picture
    > Source : Aaron Task Yahoo Tech TIcker Apr 06, 2009 08:00am http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/225823/Mortgage-Fraud-Epidemic:-How-the-FBI-Blew-It-and-Why-Theres-No-Perp-Walks
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 2:51 PM » HomeOwner’s Equity: Less than 15%
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 2:51 PM by The Big Picture
    Interesting discussion on negative equity in this week’s Barron’s. Citing Stephanie Pomboy’s recent missive, Alan Abelson takes a closer look at some of the negative details around corporate profitability and homeowner equity. When it comes to Homeowners Equity, the official data is misleading. Why? Pomboy notes the Fed data is accurate but misleading. It includes both the homes with mortgages and those owned free and clear. Why is this significant? About a third of homes have no mortgages whatsoever. The unencumbered properties improve the homeowners equity data from the Fed’s Flow of Funds report. Add in 33% of homes with 100% equity and it skews the data. The total looks better. before you say “So What?” co the following: We know that those homeowners that do not have mortgages — i.e., 100% equity — cannot default. So if we want to understand the potential further mischief real estate land can cause, it is the mortgaged properties we should be watching. Back out the third of home owners that have no mortgage — the 33% of homes with 100% equity — and the Fed’s measure of 43% net equity drops precipitously. Thus, Pomboy’s assertion that it would be more informative to say that those homes with a mortgage have homeonwers equity of less than 15%. Here’s the Barron’s excerpt: “The complacent reaction among the investment cognoscenti is that the credit markets are wildly oversold. More likely, she sniffs, it has something to do with the fact that “an overwhelming portion of some $8 trillion in mortgage debt (or 80% of the total) is teetering on the edge of, or in some state of, negative equity.” As to the Fed’s claim that the equity of homeowners as a group stands at 43%, she points out that what the Fed neglects to tell you is that roughly a third of them have their houses free and clear. Lo and behold, some basic arithmetic reveals that 67% of homeowners with mortgages have equity of less than 15%. That, Stephanie comments drily, suggests the “destruction priced into...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 10:15 AM » WSJ: Citi Needs "Up to $10 Billion" in Capital
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 10:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the WSJ: Citigroup Inc. may need to raise as much as $10 billion in new capital, according to people familiar with the matter ... The bank ... is negotiating with the Federal Reserve and may need less if regulators accept the bank's arguments about its financial health ... In a best-case scenario, Citigroup could wind up having a roughly $500 million cushion above what the government is requiring. If Citi isn't required to raise capital, I doubt there will be much confidence in the stress test results. I was expecting a much higher number than $10 billion. Also, from the NY Times: Citigroup said Friday that it would sell its Japanese brokerage and investment banking units for $5.56 billion, securing much-needed capital before results due this coming week from a U.S. government “stress test” of its financial health. ... Citigroup said it would realize a loss of $200 million on the transaction, which would generate $2.5 billion in tangible common equity, a measure of financial health.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:15 AM » Barney Frank in 2005: What housing bubble?
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 10:15 AM by themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com
    Via .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com
  • 10:15 AM » ARMs Reset Crisis Revisited
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 10:15 AM by Google News
    Just over a year ago I took a . Inquiring minds may be asking "What's Changed?" The answer is: there has been much improvement across the board, but especially for 5-1 ARMs. In addition, those in ARMs tied to the Cost of Funds Index (COFI), will be pleased to note that on April 30, the COFI sank to an all time low. The shows the March 2009 index value at 1.627, a record low. A year ago index value was 3.280. Last month it was 2.003. COFI is the weighted average of the cost of funds (CDs, savings deposits, checking deposits, etc) for member banking institutions of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco (the 11th District). COFI is a lagging index. The index value for a given month is typically reported on the last day of the following month. For Example: At or after 3 p.m. on the last business day in September, the bank announces the August COFI. The most common indices used to compute ARMs are COFI, 1-Year Constant Maturity Treasuries (CMT), 1-Year LIBOR, and 1-Month LIBOR. Rate Comparisons - COFI, 1-Yr CMT, 1-Yr LIBOR Those in interest only loans are frequently tied to 1-Month LIBOR. 1-Month LIBOR All charts courtesy of . Click on any chart to expand. ARM Index Rates COFI - 1.627% 1Yr CMT - .64% 1Yr LIBOR - 1.97% 1Mo LIBOR - .41% ARM rates consist of an index rate (typically one of the above), plus a margin component (e.g. 1 Month LIBOR + a spread). The amount of the spread is based on credit risk and other factors at the time the loan. Regardless of what index rate is, ARMs that are now resetting are likely to be coming in at lower rates, perhaps even much lower rates. 1 Year CMT Table One Month LIBOR Table One Year LIBOR Table COFI Table Across the board, those in 3-year ARM rates that have recently reset or are about to reset, will do so at a much lower rate unless there is a floor. Moreover, with the specific exception of 1-Year LIBOR based loans, there will also be a reduction in 5-Year ARM rates when those loans reset. Looking ahead just one...
  • 10:00 AM » Foreclosures: Banks Setting Opening Auction Bid Below Amount Owed
    Published Sun, May 03 2009 10:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Jillayne Schlicke at Rain City Guide: I attended a foreclosure auction in Bellevue, WA last week to discover if the rumor was true that banks are opening their bids below the amount owed. I received confirmation from three professional investors that yes, the banks have been doing that, it’s no secret, and there seems to be no discernable pattern. It’s not one particular bank or lender, it’s not particular types of property or in any specific area. It appears to be random. ... Only a few of the trustee sales attracted bidders, and the rest were deeded back to the bank. Out of the 92 active sales, 25 had opening bids below the amount owed to the bank. Jillayne offers some possible explanations why the banks are bidding below the amount they are owed. I've been hearing similar stories in California. Also, here is the monthly post: .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Fri, May 1 2009
  • 7:29 PM » Home Valuation Code of Conduct Effective May 1; Update on IVPI
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 7:29 PM by Freddie Mac
    We are reminding you that the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (Code) goes into effect today, May 1, 2009, and Freddie Mac will no longer purchase mortgages from Sellers who have not adopted the Code. Additionally, for all mortgages with application dates on or after today you must represent and warrant that all appraisal reports are obtained in a manner consistent with the Code.
  • 7:23 PM » New Mortgage Loan Data Requirements; Independent Valuation Protection Institute
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 7:23 PM by view.exacttarget.com
    Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Wingdings; panose-1:5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0; mso-font-charset:2; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:0 268435456 0 0 -2147483648 0;} @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} p {mso-style-priority:99; mso-margin-top-alt:auto; margin-right:0in; mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:0in; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} /* List Definitions */ @list l0 {mso-list-id:1010958397; mso-list-template-ids:-1740468888;} @list l0:level1 {mso-level-number-format:bullet; mso-level-text:; mso-level-tab-stop:.5in; mso-level-number-position:left; text-indent:-.25in; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Symbol;} ol {margin-bottom:0in;} ul {margin-bottom:0in;} --> /* Style Definitions */ table...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: view.exacttarget.com
  • 6:16 PM » Guest Post: Cracking Down on the Naked Short Selling of Treasuries
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 6:16 PM by Google News
    Plated by Jesse of The 'fails to deliver' statistics on debt instruments is almost as interesting, and a bit less opaque, than the naked short selling of equity instruments. A "fail to deliver" occurs when someone sells an asset such as a Treasury note to another party and then does not deliver it within a reasonable period of time. As you can see from the chart, this had become a pandemic fraud recently as investors flocked to Treasuries as a safe haven and the usual front running and hedges based on shorting the bonds started to fall apart. Let's see how this works, and if the 'financial charge' is more than a wristslap to the hedge funds and banks who engage in these practices. Now, if someone could kindly turn some attention to the obvious naked short selling in commodities and equities, other than when their banking friends are in trouble, we might see a return to markets based on some reasonable approximation of the fundamentals and price discovery of value, rather than blatant manipulation of nearly everything as facilitated by the demimondes of Wall Street. The banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, before there can be any sustained recovery in the real economy. New York Fed Applauds Implementation of the TMPG's Fails Charge Recommendation May 1, 2009 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York welcomes today’s implementation of the Treasury Market Practices Group’s (TMPG) recommendation that settlement fails in U.S. Treasury securities transactions be subject to a financial charge when short-term rates are low . The TMPG worked with both buy- and sell-side market participants to address a weakness in market practices that became apparent last fall when short-term market interest rates neared zero . The New York Fed has adopted this new trading practice in its own market operations and continues to encourage its adoption by all market participants. (The New York Fed was frontrunning Treasuries and selling them...
  • 4:27 PM » Fed to launch program bolstering commercial loans
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 4:27 PM by Market Watch
    The Federal Reserve will take a key consumer-lending program and expand it to help jump-start the commercial real-estate lending industry.
  • 3:40 PM » Home Valuation Code of Conduct: Fix or Fraud?
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 3:40 PM by CNBC
  • 2:53 PM » Quick Take: Commercial Mortgages, Sticky Property Tax, 10-Year Treasury, Manufacturing
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 2:53 PM by Google News
    More loans will become available for commercial real estate but residential mortgage rates could be creeping higher.
  • 12:31 PM » Fed's Bullard says jobless peak won't reach 1982 level
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 12:31 PM by Reuters
    HOT SPRINGS, Arkansas (Reuters) - The U.S. jobless rate will probably not rise to levels reached during the recession of the early 1980s and is likely to crest above 9 percent before declining, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Friday.
  • 12:31 PM » Personal Finance Daily: Houses getting more crowded with young and old
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 12:31 PM by Market Watch
    The key to congeniality in a multigenerational house? Communication. That, and maybe a well-planned bathroom schedule. Read about this and more, in personal finance.
  • 11:21 AM » Fed Purchases $3.316 billion in Agency Debt Coupons
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 11:21 AM by NY Fed
    The current program to purchase direct obligations from housing-related GSEs is intended to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of homes.
  • 11:16 AM » Fannie Mae's Retained Portfolio Contracts 1.3% in March
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 11:16 AM by Fannie Mae
    Fannie Mae reported its retained portfolio contracted an annualized 1.3% in March to $783.9 billion, and follows -1.3% in February. YTD, the portfolio has contracted 1.7%.
  • 11:13 AM » Economic Report: Consumer sentiment rises on Obama's policies
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 11:13 AM by Market Watch
    Pumped up by faith in the current administration’s policies, U.S. consumer sentiment rises in April, but remains at relatively low levels, according to a survey by the University of Michigan and Reuters.
  • 11:13 AM » Economic Report: Manufacturing contraction slows in April, ISM says
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 11:13 AM by Market Watch
    The factory sector contracts again in April, but the pace of decline slows, according to the Institute for Supply Management index.
  • 10:34 AM » Fed to Revise Terms for TALF Loans
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 10:34 AM by WSJ
    The Fed is preparing changes to TALF that would allow for five-year loans, aiding commercial real estate.
  • 10:34 AM » Ghost Office Space Piling Up Around The Globe
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 10:34 AM by housingdoom.com
    [ Thanks L! ] When the housing market began collapsing across the developed world, commercial real estate remained a bastion for builders. But now the global recession is dragging it down, too. Central business districts that only a year ago were crowded with construction projects are emptying out as office tenants cut staff and operations. Building values are sinking, while delinquencies on securitized loans have tripled in the past six months. The abrupt downturn in commercial real estate is punishing cities as varied as Detroit, Dallas, and Hartford, where downtown office vacancy rates top 20%. Unoccupied space is piling up quickly in San Antonio, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and San Jose. Outside the U.S., high-profile towers have been halted everywhere from Dubai to Santiago, Chile. New York, though, may be the epicenter of the bust. The world’s biggest office market, with roughly 350 million square feet of floor space, New York added 2.9 million square feet of vacant property in 2009’s first quarter alone — more than the entire Empire State Building. In that same period, calculates commercial real estate brokerage CB Richard Ellis, rents slid 14.6% to an average of $57.35 per square foot, the largest quarterly drop on record. Remember this video? Expect similar ghost buildings here. You’d think we’d learn from previous mistakes.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: housingdoom.com
  • 8:53 AM » Stress test results may be delayed
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 8:53 AM by CNN
    Read full story for latest details.
  • 8:53 AM » Foundation Backs Foreclosures Project
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 8:53 AM by WSJ
    The Ford Foundation plans to pump $50 million into a new nonprofit venture that will help municipalities buy foreclosed homes from financial institutions.
  • 8:53 AM » Banks Seeking Short Sale Deficiencies
    Published Fri, May 01 2009 8:53 AM by Seeking Alpha
    submits: A new form of restraint is evolving on future residential real estate bubbles that goes way beyond more stringent lending standards and better due diligence on borrowers. The Wall Street Journal’s reports that banks, mortgage servicers and mortgage investors are becoming more aggressive in recovering the remaining loan balances after a short sales and foreclosures. The inclusion of a promissory note might not be directly obvious in the short sale agreement, as the clause might be hidden in the small print. States vary in their laws for allowing additional recovery after foreclosures, and forcing the borrowers into bankruptcy might or might not benefit the lender. But short of foreclosure and bankruptcy, the lender has complete discretion on the amount of forgiveness to bestow on the borrower. Dept forgiveness by the primary mortgage holder does not imply forgiveness of any secondary leans. The Journal pointed to a former WaMu borrower granted a short sale with forgiveness on the first mortgage only to have JP Morgan (JPM) demand payment on the second mortgage.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
  • Thu, Apr 30 2009
  • 8:43 PM » Freddie Mac pays 2008 bonuses, honors Kellermann's
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 8:43 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Freddie Mac, the U.S. mortgage finance giant, on Thursday said it paid $1.3 million in retention bonuses to three executives in late 2008 and so far this year, including a full payout of the award promised to its acting chief financial officer before his shocking death, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
  • 8:43 PM » Chrysler to Enter Chapter 11, Form Alliance With Fiat
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 8:43 PM by WSJ
    Chrysler filed for bankruptcy at the behest of the U.S. government after failing to reach an agreement with a small group of creditors.
  • 5:37 PM » House approves credit card legislation
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 5:37 PM by CNN
    Read full story for latest details.
  • 5:36 PM » Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2008
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 5:36 PM by US Treasury
    April 30, 2009 tg-116 Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2008 WASHINGTON -- The final results from the survey of foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities at end-June 2008 are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury web site at (). This annual survey was undertaken jointly by the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The next survey will be for end-June 2009, and preliminary data are expected to be released by February 26, 2010. Complementary surveys measuring U.S. holdings of foreign securities are also carried out annually. Data from the most recent survey, reporting on securities held on year-end 2008, are currently being processed. Preliminary results are expected to be reported by August 31, 2009. Overall Results The survey measured foreign holdings of U.S. securities as of June 30, 2008, to be $10,322 billion, with $2,969 billion held in U.S. equities, $6,494 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities (of which $1,532 billion are holdings of asset-backed securities (ABS) and $4,962 billion are holdings of non-ABS securities), and $858 billion held in U.S. short-term debt securities. The previous survey, conducted as of June 30, 2007, measured foreign holdings to be $9,772 billion, with $3,130 billion in U.S. equities, $6,007 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities, and $635 billion in short-term U.S. debt securities (see Table 1). Table 1. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by type of security, as of recent survey dates (Billions of dollars) Type of Security June 30, 2007 June 30, 2008 Long-term Securities 9,136 9,463 Equity 3,130 2,969 Long-term debt 6,007 6,494 Asset-backed 1,472 1,532 Other 4,535 4,962 Short-term debt securities 635 858 Total 9,772 10,322 Of which: Official 2,823 3,493 Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2008 (Billions of dollars...
  • 5:35 PM » April Economic Summary in Graphs
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 5:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is a collection of real estate and economic graphs for data released in April ... Click on graphs for larger image in new window. New Home Sales in March The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted). Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the lowest sales for March since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 34 thousand new homes were sold in March 2009; the previous low was 36 thousand in March 1982). From: Housing Starts in March Total housing starts were at 510 thousand (SAAR) in March, just above the revised record low of 488 thousand in January (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). Single-family starts were at 358 thousand in March; just above the revised record low in January (356 thousand). From: Construction Spending in February This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. "Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $275.1 billion in February, 4.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $287.4 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $390.7 billion in February, 0.3 percent above the revised January estimate of $389.5 billion." From: March Employment Report This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 663,000 in March. January job losses were revised to 741,000. The economy has lost almost 3.3 million jobs over the last 5 months, and over 5 million jobs during the 15 consecutive months of job losses. The unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent; the highest level since 1983. From: March Retail Sales This graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 1.1% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), but sales are off 10.7% from March...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 5:35 PM » World economic reports (April 23-30): the good, the bad, and the ugly
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 5:35 PM by Google News
    The 2009 global economy is still contracting quickly, as shown by key Q1 GDP reports. However, there are some glimmers of hope that are emerging, like industrial production in Japan got a bump in March and German and U.S. survey reports show some signs of relief. However, the light at the end of the tunnel is still very dim - even the positive indicators remain very much in negative territory. The good: Japan's Industrial Production rose 1.6% in March The chart illustrates the preliminary figures for Japanese through March 2009. The 1.5% bump is certainly a relief; however, production levels remain down over 35% since last year. Baby steps, I suppose. More good: Survey reports in Germany and the U.S. rebound The chart illustrates the Germany Ifo business climate survey and the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey through April. The German Ifo survey rose to its. However, businesses contend that inventory liquidation is imminent, and therefore, new production is not. Likewise, the U.S. in April, consistent with yesterday's reported in consumer spending. However, it is prudent to note that this survey is still very low, and so too is consumer demand. The bad: Annual export growth remains on red alert The chart illustrates annual export growth through March for Switzerland and Thailand, and through February for the Philippines. The noteworthy observation here is: that annual export growth slowed in Switzerland and the Philippines, which is luke warm news at best, given that their growth rates are double digit negative. The ugly: GDP falling precipitously in Q1 2009 The chart illustrates GDP growth in Q1 2009 (on a year over year basis, which means Q1 2008 to Q1 2009, not quarter over quarter, or Q4 2008 to Q1 2009...easier to compare) in South Korea, the U.S., and the U.K. The figure speaks for itself: the economic contraction worsened in Q1 2009. Each economy is setting records, especially in Korea. Overall, hope that key economies are no longer in...
  • 5:35 PM » Judicial Power on Mortgages Is Rejected in a Senate Vote
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 5:35 PM by NY Times
    The Senate handed a victory to the banking industry by defeating a Democratic proposal that would have given homeowners in financial trouble greater flexibility to renegotiate the terms of their mortgages.
  • 4:22 PM » Cash Out Refis Hit Five Year Low
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 4:22 PM by www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com
    Only 42 percent of refinances carried out during the first quarter resulted in cash out, according to the latest “Cash-Out Refinance Report” from Freddie Mac. That’s the lowest amount since the first quarter of 2004, well below the 55 percent seen in the fourth quarter of 2008, and nowhere close to the near-90 percent levels seen [...]
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com
  • 2:24 PM » MarketWatch First Take: Wages barely growing, raising risks of deflation
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 2:24 PM by Market Watch
    As private-sector wages in the U.S. economy increased just 0.2% during the first three months of the year -- the slowest growth on record -- Federal Reserve policy makers find themselves having something else to worry about: deflation.
  • 12:35 PM » Markets During Presidential First Terms
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 12:35 PM by The Big Picture
    Sy Harding (who you may know from his prescient 1999 book ) had an interesting piece in Barron’s over the weekend. Sy wrote: There’s a strong tendency for each new presidential administration to do whatever it takes to make sure the economy and market will be strong when reelection time rolls around four years later. As the table below shows, of the 19 bear markets since 1917 — I define a bear market as one in which stocks fall at least 20% — 15 ended in the first or second year of a presidential term, so that the economy and stock prices had recovered by the time the next election took place. . . . The sole president who didn’t see the bear depart until his fourth year in office was the unfortunate Herbert Hoover, who wasn’t re-elected. So, the odds seem good that the current bear market will conclude in the first or second year of the Obama presidency.” 15 of 19 seems like not bad odds, and if you look at the last 4 — 3 of them came during a president’s second term. Statistically speaking, 2010 looks like a pretty good bet for the end of the Bear market, according to Harding. One caveat: Just because the Bear ends doesn’t mean a new bull starts right away. My 1973 thesis is still playing out according to schedule, which puts us now somewhere in 1974. Even when the bear was dead, markets still needed another 7 years for a new bull to begin . . . > > Source: SY HARDING Barron’s April 25, 2009 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124062166589055461.html
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 12:29 PM » Refinances in 1Q Reduce Mortgage Payments by $2.5 billion in Coming Year
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 12:29 PM by Freddie Mac
    In the first quarter of 2009, half of borrowers who refinanced their loan lowered their annual mortgage interest rate by at least 20 percent according to Freddie Mac's quarterly Refinance Report. T
  • 12:21 PM » Federal Reserve Purchases $3.025 billion in Treasury Coupons
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 12:21 PM by NY Fed
    The purchase or sale of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a routine basis to offset other changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to maintain conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
  • 11:00 AM » A Road Map to a Chrysler Bankruptcy
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 11:00 AM by dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com
    If Chrysler files for bankruptcy protection, as seemed almost inevitable Thursday, there could be a very public brawl between the government, which is effectively propping Chrysler up with billions of dollars in loans, and a group of its recalcitrant lenders.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com
  • 11:00 AM » Stocks rise on recovery hopes
    Published Thu, Apr 30 2009 11:00 AM by CNN
    Stocks rallied Thursday morning, extending the recent advance, as bets that the economy is closer to stabilizing trumped any worries about a looming Chrysler bankruptcy.
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  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 106-03 (0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -2.52%
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  • Refinance Index 0.33%
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  • Purchase Index -4.92%