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  • Fri, Feb 23 2018
  • 4:42 PM » Lawler: "Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 4:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook At the end of last year the Census Bureau released its estimate of the US population for July 1, 2017 and its updated estimates for previous years (the so-called "Vintage 2017" estimates). As of July 1, 2017 Census estimated that the US resident population totaled 325,719,178, up 2,313,062 (or 0.71%) from the upwardly-revised estimate for July 1, 2016. The estimated population increase for 2017 was slightly lower than the 2,366,096 estimated gain in 2016, reflecting slightly lower estimated births, slightly higher estimated deaths, and slightly lower net international migration. Revised population estimates for previous years mainly reflected revised estimates of net international migration, which were driven by an updated methodology for estimating foreign-born emigration and net native-born migration. Below is a table comparing Vintage 2017 population estimates compared to the Vintage 2015 and the Vintage 2016 estimates. The Vintage "estimates" for the subsequent year reflect near-term projections for each Vintage. Estimated US Resident Population Vintage 2015 Vintage 2016 Vintage 2017 7/1/2010 309,346,863 309,348,193 309,339,421 7/1/2011 311,718,857 311,663,358 311,644,280 7/1/2012 314,102,623 313,998,379 313,993,272 7/1/2013 316,427,395 316,204,908 316,234,505 7/1/2014 318,907,401 318,563,456 318,622,525 7/1/2015 321,418,820 320,896,618 321,039,839 7/1/2016 323,889,854 323,127,513 323,405,935 7/1/2017 325,344,115 325,719,178 7/1/2018 328,033,240 While Census had originally planned to release updated long-term population projections in December (the last long-term population projections report was released at the end of 2014 with "Vintage 2013" as a starting point), "senior officials" delayed the updated population release until sometime in March. Many analysts use these population projections to project...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:06 PM » Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 2:06 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may think it's sounding more hawkish these days, yet the debt markets don't quite buy it. Traders are pricing in less than the three quarter-point rate hikes that officials have signaled as likely this year, and the market is still ... and more »
  • 2:03 PM » Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 2:03 PM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:20 PM » House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 12:20 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others). Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index. The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted), compared to Case-Shiller (Seasonally Adjusted). Click on graph for larger image. The median and mean house prices showed less of an increase in prices during the bubble (this was the distortion I discussed back in 2005 and 2006). Now it appears the median and mean prices are pretty much tracking the Case-Shiller index. The second graph show the same data on a year-over-year basis. On a year-over-year basis, the mean and median track Case-Shiller pretty closely. The Case-Shiller National Index was up 6.2% in November. The NAR median price was up 5.8% in January, and the mean price was up 4.7%. I still prefer the repeat sales indexes, but I think the NAR prices are also useful. The third graph shows the NAR existing home median prices, the Census Bureau's new home median prices, and the Case-Shiller national index. As has been widely reported, the new home builders have been focused on higher priced homes - and this is clear in the house price data. Compared to the bubble peak, the NAR median price is up 4.4%, the Case-Shiller index is up 6.4%, however new home median prices are up 27.5%!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:04 PM » Permits Grow Across Most States Over 2017
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 12:04 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the twelve months ending in December 2017, the total number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 817,319. This is 9.6% ahead of its level over the first twelve months of 2016, 745,525. The results from the SOC are similar, single-family permits over the first twelve months of 2017, 817,700 are 8.9% ahead of their level over the same period... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:37 AM » Fed sees rate hikes on track; continued U.S. growth
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 11:37 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve, looking past a recent stock market sell-off and concern about inflation, said it sees steady growth continuing and no serious risks on the horizon the might pause its planned pace of rate hikes.
  • 11:06 AM » Fed sees economy past full employment but with only 'moderate' wage gains
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 11:06 AM by CNBC
    Fed policymakers see an economy that may be past full employment, market prices that are high and overall growth that continues to gather steam.
  • 10:24 AM » Fed should lean on rate cuts, not QE, in next recession: paper
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 10:24 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should focus on lowering interest rates in the face of the next recession, and avoid relying on asset purchases that are a less effective policy tool than previously thought, four top U.S. economists told a roomful of Fed officials on Friday.
  • 10:17 AM » Most House Hunters Have Been Searching For 3 Months or More
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 10:17 AM by Market Watch
    Most house hunters have been searching for 3 months or more
  • 9:14 AM » Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share Remains Elevated
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 9:14 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The market share of rental multifamily construction starts ticked back up to an elevated level of 95% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to NAHB analysis of Census data. In contrast, the historical low share of 47% was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. The average share of 80% was recorded during the 1980-2002... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:30 AM » Atlanta Fed President Says 'Things Continue to Look Up' for US Economy
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:30 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Atlanta Fed President Says 'Things Continue to Look Up' for US Economy Bloomberg The U.S. central bank is carefully raising interest rates against a brightening economic background that has perked up conditions for the nation's lenders, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. After years of emergency-era ...
  • 8:30 AM » Why Man-Made Hazards Aren't Deterring Buyers in Pricey Areas
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:30 AM by www.realtor.com
    Living in an environmentally hazardous area may be risky-but homes in such areas are appreciating more than residences farther away from these risks. The post Why Man-Made Hazards Aren’t Deterring Buyers in Pricey Areas appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:28 AM » JPMorgan's Quants Warn Risks Are Growing for Bond Short-Squeeze
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:28 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg JPMorgan's Quants Warn Risks Are Growing for Bond Short-Squeeze Bloomberg Investors have become so bearish on U.S. government bonds that they risk getting caught out, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s quantitative and derivatives strategy team. Short positioning in Treasury futures has climbed to a record, increasing the ... and more »
  • Thu, Feb 22 2018
  • 4:22 PM » Global Markets Fret Over Next Leg of the Treasury Selloff
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 4:22 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Global Markets Fret Over Next Leg of the Treasury Selloff Bloomberg While investors focus on soaring yields on U.S. bills and the 10-year note, global markets may be at the mercy of a fresh threat: a rising term premium, or the extra compensation to hold longer-maturity debt over short-term securities. Strengthening ... and more »
  • 4:19 PM » Next up for markets: new Fed chair Powell weighs in on the interest rate debate
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 4:19 PM by CNBC
    Market pros are hoping Fed chair Jerome Powell will step in as referee in the violent tug-of-war between bonds and stocks.
  • 2:58 PM » Michele: Fed is 'Terribly Behind the Curve'
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Michele: Fed is 'Terribly Behind the Curve' Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- A lot of investors hope for something more dovish from Janet Yellen's final Fed minutes, but the Central Bank was right to sound a hawkish note says Bob Michele, Head of Global FICC at JPMorgan Asset Management. He tells Daybreak Europe ... and more »
  • 2:27 PM » Brighter US Growth Outlook Emboldens Fed on Rate-Hike Course
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:27 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Brighter US Growth Outlook Emboldens Fed on Rate-Hike Course Bloomberg U.S. central bankers sent a strong message Wednesday that an expansion with "substantial underlying economic momentum" could sustain additional increases in interest rates this year. Federal Reserve officials "anticipated that the rate of economic ... and more »
  • 2:14 PM » US Stocks Rebound, Dollar Stumbles With Yields: Markets Wrap
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Stocks Rebound, Dollar Stumbles With Yields: Markets Wrap Bloomberg U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days even as most global gauges slumped in the wake of Federal Reserve minutes that seemed to boost the prospect of tighter monetary policy. The dollar fell as Treasuries rose. The moves in U.S. assets ... and more »
  • 1:58 PM » Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:58 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 February The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17 February 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 12-18 February 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: +1.2% to 62.9% • Average daily rate (ADR): +3.2% to US$128.75 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +4.4% to US$80.99 emphasis added Note: Houston is no longer reporting a large year-over-year increase in occupancy, so it appears the impact of the hurricanes is fading. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels). Currently the occupancy rate is second overall, to date (just behind 2006) - and ahead of the record year in 2017 (2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes). Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:48 PM » Draghi Gets ECB Back on Message
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:48 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Gets ECB Back on Message Bloomberg The European Central Bank got its communication largely back under control on the third anniversary of the publication of its policy accounts. Aside from a brief spike, the euro stayed relatively calm after the summary of January's Governing Council ... and more »
  • 1:28 PM » Mortgage Rates Touch 4-Year High as Benchmark Bonds Take a Hit
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:28 PM by www.realtor.com
    Rates for home loans have reached a nearly a four-year high as investors abandoned bonds in the face of stronger signs of inflation and central bank tightening, sending yields on debt higher. The post Mortgage Rates Touch 4-Year High as Benchmark Bonds Take a Hit appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:45 PM » Many lenders are loosening requirements for prospective home buyers
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 12:45 PM by Washington Post
    Low down payments and assistance programs make getting mortgage loan approvals easier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 11:59 AM » America Averts Bond Auction Armageddon
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg America Averts Bond Auction Armageddon Bloomberg Bond traders can toast to successfully handling a massive wave of debt from the U.S. Treasury, at least for now. With the deluge of supply only just beginning, this week's auctions served as a reminder that the U.S. won't have trouble finding buyers ... and more »
  • 11:41 AM » Homeowners are using Airbnb rental income to refinance mortgages
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:41 AM by CNBC
    Homeowners can now use income from Airbnb to qualify for mortgage refinances, thanks to a new pilot program through Fannie Mae.
  • 11:07 AM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued Solid Growth" in February
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Posted Continued Solid Growth The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that the Tenth District manufacturing survey posted continued solid growth, and expectations for future activity increased moderately. "February was another good month for factories in our region," said Wilkerson. "A rising number of firms reported higher input and selling prices." ... The month-over-month composite index was 17 in February , higher than 16 in January and 13 in December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity grew at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for metals, machinery, and plastics products. Most month-over-month indexes also increased. The shipments, new orders, and employment indexes all rose moderately. The order backlog index fell from 20 to 13, and the new orders for exports index also eased somewhat. The raw materials inventory index decreased from 15 to 8, while the finished goods inventory index was basically unchanged. Most year-over-year factory indexes were higher in February. The composite index rose from 35 to 38, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also increased. The employment index climbed from 31 to 39 , and the capital expenditures index inched slightly higher. The raw materials inventory index fell from 38 to 23, while the finished goods inventory index increased slightly. emphasis added So far all of the regional Fed surveys have been solid in February, and most have been above the January levels (most indexes suggest faster growth in February than in January).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:44 AM » Apartment and Condominium Market Ends Fourth Quarter on a Positive Note
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:44 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) gained seven points to 53 in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) (Figure 1). The MPI measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the apartment and condominium market on a scale of 0 to 100. The index and all of its components are scaled so... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:09 AM » Mortgage Rates Continue Upward Climb
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:09 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Continue Upward Climb
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:00 AM » Dow rises 100 points as 10-year yield eases from 4-year high
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:00 AM by CNBC
    U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, trying to snap a two-day losing streak, as interest rates slipped from multiyear highs seen in the previous session.
  • 9:36 AM » First-Time Homebuyers Make Biggest Share of Deals in 17 Years
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 9:36 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg First-Time Homebuyers Make Biggest Share of Deals in 17 Years Bloomberg First-time buyers rushed into the market last year, making 38 percent of all single-family home purchases, the biggest share since 2000, data released Thursday by Genworth Mortgage Insurance show. The 2.07 million new or existing homes bought by first ... and more »
  • 9:03 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 9:03 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 228,500 to 228,250. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal. emphasis added The previous week was revised down. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 226,000. This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest relatively few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:29 AM » What's Missing From the Housing Recovery? New Condos
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:29 AM by www.realtor.com
    With the last financial crisis now firmly in the rearview mirror, builders are putting up sorely needed new homes again. But something's missing: condos. The post What’s Missing From the Housing Recovery? New Condos appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:27 AM » CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast Validation Report
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:27 AM by www.corelogic.com
    Analysis Reveals 12-Month, National Forecast is Within 1.7 Percent of Actual HPI Increase Report Also Analyzes Housing Markets That Are Finalists for Amazon HQ2 CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Validation Report that publicly compares its 12-month CoreLogic HPI Forecasts to the actual CoreLogic HPI Index. The report compares the changes in national and key CBSA-level forecasts made in November 2017 to the actual HPI index released in February of 2018, which includes data through November 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. The report showed: The national forecast prediction of a 4.5 percent increase was within 1.7 percent of the 6.2 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in November 2017. The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area, which at 3.5 percent came within 0.1 percent of the actual HPI increase of 3.6 percent. The widest CBSA gap was in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA with an 8.7 percent under-estimation of actual increase (5.2 percent forecasted vs. 13.9 percent actual). CoreLogic noted that the variance in this over-valued CBSA was due to a severely constrained supply of homes for sale (1.5 months versus 5.7 months nationally) among other factors. Among the 10-most accurately forecasted MSAs, the average difference was 0.6 percent and the range was between 0.1 percent and 1.2 percent. Of the markets being considered for Amazon’s HQ2, only 6 of the markets have housing market conditions that are normal or undervalued, according to our Market Condition Indicators. “The release of the HPI Forecast Validation Report shows that our...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.corelogic.com
  • 8:27 AM » Where home seller profits are greatest in the U.S.
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:27 AM by Washington Post
    TOWN SQUARE | The West Coast saw the biggest gains, according to a new study. The Washington area lagged.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Wed, Feb 21 2018
  • 5:26 PM » Here's how traders talked themselves into a sell-off
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 5:26 PM by CNBC
    If the Fed meeting had been held now, with all the information that's come out since January, traders believe it would have been more hawkish
  • 5:24 PM » House Prices and Inventory
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 5:24 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This will be an interesting year for housing. With the tax changes - and rising mortgage rates - a key question is: What will be the impact on housing? The answer is no one knows for sure. For the possible impact of tax changes on housing, see: Question #10 for 2018: Will the New Tax Law impact Home Sales, Inventory, and Price Growth in Certain States? It is difficult to measure demand directly, but inventory is fairly easy to track. Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending , and that boosted price increases.  I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. Click on graph for larger image. This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999). There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph). If months-of-supply is high, price decline. If months-of-supply is low, prices rise. In the existing home sales report released this morning, the NAR reported months-of-supply at 3.4 months in January. Based on the historical relationship, months-of-supply could double before house prices started declining. My current expectation is inventory will increase this year, and house price growth will slow a little.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:34 PM » Fed Officials Say Economy Is Ready for Higher Rates
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 3:34 PM by www.nytimes.com
    A strengthening economy is giving the Fed confidence that interest rates can rise, according to minutes of the most recent policymaking meeting.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 3:28 PM » New HMDA Guide Issued by the FFIEC
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 3:28 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) has just issued an updated version of The Guide to HMDA Reporting: Getting It Right! The Guide reflects the extensive changes to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act rules that were adopted in October 2015 and became effective January 1, 2018. Until now, the most recent version of the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:10 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2018
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 2:10 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2018
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 2:10 PM » Fed minutes: All signs pointing to more rate hikes ahead
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 2:10 PM by CNBC
    Fed minutes: All signs pointing to more rate hikes ahead|| 105019988
  • 1:58 PM » JP Morgan's ‘branch warfare' to beat up on Wells, support 19% stock surge: Morgan Stanley
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 1:58 PM by CNBC
    J.P. Morgan's expansion into new markets will spark a war with other big banks it doesn't plan on losing, according to Morgan Stanley.
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.53%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.90%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.55%
MBS Prices:
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Recent Housing Data:
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  • Purchase Index 1.43%