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  • Fri, Apr 9 2021
  • 3:33 PM » Lagarde sees strong rebound for EU economy in second half, expects U.S. to meet inflation goal soon
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 3:33 PM by CNBC
    Despite a difficult struggle against the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU will hit its economic stride later this year, Lagarde told CNBC on Friday.
  • 2:50 PM » North Texas Real Estate in March: Sales Up 7% YoY, Inventory Down 65% YoY
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 2:50 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows. From the NTREIS  for North Texas (including Dallas/Ft. Worth): Single Family Homes sold in March 2021 were 9,712, up 5.0% from 9,252 in March 2020.  Condos and Townhomes sold in March 2021 were 805, up 50.2% from 536 in March 2020. Combined, sales were up 7.4% year-over-year. Single Family Active Listings in March 2021 were 6,859, down 67.1% from 20,853 in March 2020.  For Condos and Townhomes, Active Listings in March 2021 were 1,264, down 37.7% from 2,030 in March 2020. Combined, active listings declined 64.5% year-over-year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:05 PM » Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 7%
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 2:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note that the forecasts of the automated systems (based on released data) are lower than the forecasts of economists. Economists are expecting March to be very strong. From Merrrill Lynch: We continue to track 7.0% for 1Q GDP growth. [Apr 9 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +7.5% (qoq ar). [Apr 9 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 6.0% for 2021:Q1 and 1.5% for 2021:Q2. [Apr 9 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. [Apr 9 estimate]
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:34 PM » Housing Affordability Falls in February as Home Price Growth Surges
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 1:34 PM by
    Affordability declined in February compared to January as the median family income rose by 3.5% while the monthly mortgage payment increased 5%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:01 PM » Is there a New Housing Bubble?
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 12:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    There is discussion of another housing bubble.  I wouldn't call the current situation a "bubble". Way back in early 2005, I wrote: Housing: Speculation is the Key A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation . It is natural to focus on an asset's fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation ... Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the "bubble" bursts. Maybe prices are too high based on fundamentals (due to extremely low supply and record low mortgage rates), but there is very little evidence of speculation (not like the loose lending of the housing bubble). Ben Carlson discusses lending (and other issues) in Why This is Not Another Housing Bubble . The lack of wild speculation doesn't mean house prices can't decline, but it means that we won't see cascading declines in prices like what happened when the housing bubble burst .  In the 2006 through 2011 period, as prices fell, and teaser rates and other "affordability products" expired - more and more homeowners were forced to sell (or just walk away).   That drove prices down 26% nationally from peak to trough, and much more in certain "bubble" cities like Las Vegas (down 62% from peak) and Phoenix (down 56%). We might see some price declines, especially in some 2nd home areas that saw a surge in demand at the onset of the pandemic, but the recent buyers are all well qualified, and some price declines will not lead to forced selling.   So there is no threat to the financial system with widespread defaults. On fundamentals:  Every month, I post a price-to-rent graph based on 2004 paper by Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei: House Prices and Fundamental Value . Kainer and Wei presented a price...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:13 AM » Housing Market Update: Homes Sell at Fastest Pace on Record
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 11:13 AM by
    Asking prices and pending sales flatten, largely following an expected seasonal pattern, suggesting that homebuyer demand and sale prices may be peaking.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:11 AM » U.S. producer price index rose 1.0% in March, vs 0.5% increase expected
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 9:11 AM by CNBC
    U.S. producer price index rose 1.0% in March, vs 0.5% increase expected<br/>
  • 8:10 AM » Treasury yields climb ahead of producer prices data
    Published Fri, Apr 09 2021 8:10 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Friday morning, ahead of the release of the March producer price index, which measures wholesale price inflation.
  • Thu, Apr 8 2021
  • 2:59 PM » Freddie Eligibility Updates (PSPA and QRM Rule)
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 2:59 PM by Freddie Mac
    Freddie Mac, through the FHFA as its conservator, entered into a Letter Agreement dated January 14, 2021 (the "PSPA") with the Department of the Treasury to amend the Amended and Restated Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement. Under the amended PSPA, we are required to establish a program on or before July 1, 2021 that is reasonably designed to ensure that the loans we purchase are limited to those set forth in the amended PSPA, subject to certain exceptions that may be granted by the FHFA. In accordance with FHFA guidance, we are announcing requirements related to loans originated under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's ("CFPB") temporary GSE qualified mortgage rule (such mortgages "QMs"; and such temporary CFPB rule, the "GSE Patch") in order to provide the industry time to implement any necessary changes.
  • 2:56 PM » Fannie Guideline Changes Due to PSPA and QRM Rule
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 2:56 PM by Fannie Mae
    This Lender Letter provides notice that loans we purchase with application dates on and after July 1, 2021 must meet the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Revised Qualified Mortgage Rule under the Ability to Repay regulation. Additional policy and implementation details will be provided in a future communication.
  • 2:35 PM » West Virginia's Manchin, flexing political muscle, leaves U.S. Senate Democrats in lurch
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 2:35 PM by Reuters
    Congressional Democrats trying to advance President Joe Biden's $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan were left wondering on Thursday whether one of their own, Senator Joe Manchin, might revolt if the party tries to act without Republican buy-in.
  • 12:47 PM » Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell debate the global economy with the IMF live
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 12:47 PM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is participating in a virtual debate on the global economy presented by the International Monetary Fund.
  • 12:45 PM » Yellen tells world's big economies: spend big, danger lurks
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 12:45 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday warned of the risk of a permanent divergence in the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, and urged major economies to inject significant new fiscal support to secure a robust recovery.
  • 10:27 AM » Work From (Second) Home: Demand for Vacation Homes Continues to Soar, Even as Offices Show Signs of Life
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 10:27 AM by
    The intense demand for vacation homes is a symbol of the ongoing uneven economic recovery in the U.S., with some Americans able to afford second homes and many unable to afford even one. The number of buyers who locked in mortgage rates for second homes shot up a record 128% year over year in March.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:50 AM » Biden seeks to ease housing shortage with $5 billion 'carrot, no stick' approach
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 8:50 AM by Reuters
    Biden seeks to ease housing shortage with $5 billion 'carrot, no stick' approach
  • 8:37 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 744,000, vs 694,000 estimate
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 8:37 AM by CNBC
    First-time claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 694,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:03 AM » IMF warns debt overhang and financial vulnerabilities pose double threat to economic recovery
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 8:03 AM by CNBC
    The IMF appears to be trying to orchestrate a delicate balancing act at its spring meetings this week.
  • 8:02 AM » These are 2021's best cities for first-time homebuyers
    Published Thu, Apr 08 2021 8:02 AM by CNBC
    Heavy competition in today's pricey housing market has sidelined some first-time buyers, especially in major metropolitan markets. These markets may be best for home shopping.
  • Wed, Apr 7 2021
  • 3:44 PM » Biden willing to negotiate on corporate tax rate, but says inaction not an option on infrastructure
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 3:44 PM by CNBC
    Biden willing to negotiate on corporate tax rate, but says inaction not an option on infrastructure<br/>
  • 3:44 PM » S&P edges up in wake of Fed minutes
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 3:44 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slightly added to gains while the Dow pared declines on Wednesday the Federal Reserve released minutes from last month's meeting that reinforced the U.S. central bank's position that it will be patient before raising rates.
  • 2:15 PM » Fed officials expect it will be 'some time' before it starts tightening policy, minutes show
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 2:15 PM by CNBC
    Fed officials expect it will be 'some time' before it starts tightening policy, minutes show<br/>
  • 1:59 PM » Northwest Real Estate in March: Sales up 16% YoY, Inventory down 56% YoY
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 1:59 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Inventory is down sharply in the Northwest almost everywhere except Seattle. And inventory is low in Seattle too, but was even lower a year ago. The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Northwest MLS brokers say bidding wars, escalating prices, and buyer fatigue are widespread "There's no April fooling when it comes to how hot the housing market is right now," commented J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L Scott Real Estate. "In King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, the current spring market we're seeing is one of the best on record." James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington, agreed, noting March marked the first post-COVID/pre-COVID comparison. "It is very difficult to compare year-on-year results once lockdown started in late March 2020," he stated. "The drop in the number of active listings between now and last year is extraordinary," Young exclaimed. NWMLS statistics show a 55.9% decline in total active listings , shrinking from 9,418 at the end of March 2020 to 4,153 at month end. Young noted the decrease is even more pronounced in "peripheral counties." Six counties (Clallam, Clark, Island, Kittitas, Mason, and San Juan) experienced year-over-year declines of 69% or higher, according to the latest report from Northwest MLS. emphasis added The press release is for the Northwest MLS area. There were 7,803 closed sales in March 2021, up 15.9% from 6,735 sales in March 2020.  Active inventory for the Northwest is down 55.9% . In King County, sales were up 20.7% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 37.1% year-over-year. In Seattle, sales were up 33.5% year-over-year, and inventory was UP 7.3% year-over-year. (inventory in Seattle was extremely low last year).  This puts the months-of-supply in Seattle at just 0.95 months.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:38 PM » S&P 500, Dow tick higher ahead of Fed minutes
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 1:38 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 and the Dow ticked higher on Wednesday, with financial stocks leading gains ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting that could offer clues on the central bank's views on inflation and an economic recovery.
  • 1:35 PM » CFPB Proposes Delay of Effective Date for Recent Debt Collection Rules
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 1:35 PM by CFPB
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau today proposed extending the effective date of two recent debt collection rules to give affected parties more time to comply due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
  • 11:59 AM » Some thoughts on increasing the Homeowner Housing Supply in the Short Term
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 11:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Currently "For Sale" housing inventories are at record low levels. What could lead to more supply in the short term?  Here are the organic reasons. First, as the pandemic subsides, potential sellers will be more willing to list their homes (and allow strangers into their homes).  So I expect more inventory later this year (See  Some thoughts on Housing Inventory ) Second, an increase in mortgage rates (if this continues) would likely slow demand (usually demand picks up when interest rates first start to increase, as buyers are afraid of missing out on low rates).  But if 30 year fixed rate mortgages move up closer to 4% ( from the current 3.34% ), this will probably slow demand. Third, homebuilders are responding to demand, and ramping up production. What else could lead to more supply? Government policy could help . In many higher priced areas, people stay in their large homes to avoid paying capital gains.   A one time waiving of all capital gains on a primary residence (for seniors), would bring more supply to the market.   These seniors could then move down or into retirement communities. Some people would argue this would only help wealthier people, but that is incorrect. Click on graph for larger image. Supply at the higher end, would allow people to move up - and that would free up mid-level homes, and down the housing chain.  (See this post from 2009 on the housing chain ) I put this graphic together in 2007 to explain the missing move up buyer, but it would also apply if we could free up higher end homes. Another policy that would help would be to offer a tax break to landlords of single family homes and condos, if they sell a rental property this year. A large number of single family home and condos were converted to rental units. In 2015, housing economist Tom Lawler estimated there were 17.5 million renter occupied single family homes in the U.S., up from 10.7 million...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:53 AM » Bankers talk of being sold out as London waits for its own Brexit deal with Brussels
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 10:53 AM by CNBC
    Bankers who have spoken to CNBC feel the industry has continually been neglected throughout Brexit talks.
  • 8:54 AM » Trade Deficit Increased to $71.1 Billion in February
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.1 billion in February , up $3.3 billion from $67.8 billion in January, revised. February exports were $187.3 billion, $5.0 billion less than January exports. February imports were $258.3 billion, $1.7 billion less than January imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Both exports and imports decreased in February. Exports are down 10.0% compared to February 2020; imports are up 5.0% compared to February 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports much more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero. The trade deficit with China increased to $24.6 billion in February, from $16.0 billion in February 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Mall vacancies jump at fastest pace on record, hitting new high, as retailers cull store counts
    Published Wed, Apr 07 2021 8:05 AM by CNBC
    If you noticed more darkened windows and empty stores at the mall recently, you're not alone.
  • Tue, Apr 6 2021
  • 1:55 PM » S&P 500 resumes record run on economic rebound hopes
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 1:55 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Tuesday as economy-linked and tech stocks gained ground on confidence that the U.S. economy is on its path to a roaring rebound.
  • 1:53 PM » Wall Street takes a breather, Treasury yields dip as eyes turn to Fed
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 1:53 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks paused near the previous session's record closing highs and Treasury yields inched lower on Tuesday as investors took stock of recent upbeat data and looked to the Federal Reserve for its economic outlook.
  • 1:52 PM » Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales up 36% YoY, Inventory down 68% YoY
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 1:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This report is for closed sales in March; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in January and February. The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices keep springing forward amid tight supply; LVR housing statistics for March 2021 "This is the first month where our housing statistics show a year-over-year comparison to the beginning of the pandemic," said 2021 LVR President Aldo Martinez. "At the rate we're going, we could see even greater gains in home prices and sales next month, since the housing market stalled briefly last April before roaring back since then." LVR reported a total of 4,724 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold during March. Compared to the same time last year, March sales were up 35.1% for homes and up 39.8% for condos and townhomes . By the end of March, LVR reported 1,772 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. While up from the previous month, that's still down 68.8% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 597 properties listed without offers in March represent a 63.3% drop from one year ago. ... Despite the ongoing pandemic and accompanying economic downturn, the number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. LVR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 0.6% of all existing local property sales in March. That compares to 2.0% of all sales one year ago, 2.5% of all sales two years ago, 2.9% three years ago, and 9.8% four years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales (single family and condos) were up 36.1% year-over-year to 4,724 in March 2021 from 7,315 in March 2020. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 5,454 in March 2020 to 2,369 in March 2021. Note: Total inventory was down 67.6% year-over-year.   And months of inventory is extremely low. 3) Very low level of distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:52 PM » Zillow Group Population Science Homeowner Survey: Q1 2021
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 1:52 PM by
    More than 1-in-8 homeowners say they are considering selling...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:54 AM » BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.4 Million in February
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 11:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged up to 7.4 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires also edged up to 5.7 million while total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February, the most recent employment report was for March. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in February to 7.367 million from 7.099 million in January.  This is close to the series maximum of 7.574 million. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 5.1% year-over-year.  Note that job openings were declining a year ago prior to the pandemic. Quits were down 2.1% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:06 AM » Fannie Mae Announces the Results of its Nineteenth Reperforming Loan Sale Transaction
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 10:06 AM by Fannie Mae
    Fannie Mae today announced the results of its nineteenth reperforming loan sale transaction.
  • 9:12 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.4% Year-over-year in February
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 9:12 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Market Forces at Work: Supply Constraints and Buyer Demand Pushes US Home Price Annual Appreciation to 15-Year High in February, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2021. Home prices continued to increase in February, reaching the highest annual gain since April 2006 , as demand continues to clash with historically low supply. These factors have created increased affordability challenges, especially as mortgage rates also begin to rise. CoreLogic analysis also shows homebuyers have steadily moved away from densely populated, high-cost coastal areas in favor of more affordable suburban locales. The number of homebuyers in the top 10 metros with the largest net out-migration - including West Coast metros like Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose - who chose to move to another metro increased by 3 percentage points in 2020 to 21% from 2019. This sentiment is reflected in CoreLogic's recent consumer survey, which found that 57% of current non-homeowners on the West Coast feel the home options in their area are not at all affordable. "Homebuyers are experiencing the most competitive housing market we've seen since the Great Recession," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Rising mortgage rates and severe supply constraints are pushing already-overheated home prices out of reach for some prospective buyers, especially in more expensive metro areas. As affordability challenges persist, we may see more potential homebuyers priced out of the market and a possible slowing of price growth on the horizon." ... Nationally, home prices increased 10.4% in February 2021, compared with February 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:09 AM » Treasury yields fall ahead of February job openings data
    Published Tue, Apr 06 2021 8:09 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday morning, ahead of the release of job openings data for February later in the day.
  • Mon, Apr 5 2021
  • 4:23 PM » Strong economic data lifts Dow, S&P 500 to record closes
    Published Mon, Apr 05 2021 4:23 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks rallied on Monday with the Dow and S&P 500 closing at record levels, as a round of strong economic data buoyed investor optimism for the economic reopening and a muted climb in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield kept inflation worries in check.
  • 4:01 PM » Denver Real Estate in March: Sales Up 1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 67%
    Published Mon, Apr 05 2021 4:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows. From the DMAR: Monthly Indicators, March 2021 Total Residential Units Sold in March 2021 were 4,889, up 1.2% from 4,831 in March 2020. Active Residential Listings in March 2021 were 1,921, down 66.7% from 5,776 in March 2020. Inventory in Denver had been fairly steady over the last 6 or 7 years, but declined sharply in 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:37 PM » "This is not the time for amateurs," says real estate agent of fiercely competitive housing market
    Published Mon, Apr 05 2021 2:37 PM by CNBC
    Selling a home has never been easier, and while that may sound like great news for real estate agents, there is a problem: They are desperate for listings.
  • 2:36 PM » Homeowners behind on their mortgages could get a reprieve on any foreclosures until 2022
    Published Mon, Apr 05 2021 2:36 PM by CNBC
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is looking to give homeowners in Covid-19 forbearance programs a reprieve from foreclosure proceedings until 2022.
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