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  • Fri, Nov 28 2014
  • 12:44 PM » Fed now expected to stay lower for a lot longer
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 12:44 PM by CNBC
    Remember when the Federal Reserve was going to raise rates next spring? Yeah, well that was fun while it lasted.
  • 12:43 PM » Oil steadies near four-year low as glut looms after OPEC
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 12:43 PM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - Brent crude oil steadied above $73 a barrel on Friday after hitting a fresh four-year low in the wake of OPEC's decision not to cut output, a move investors said would leave oil markets heavily oversupplied.
  • 12:43 PM » How Much Do Neighborhoods Influence Future Earnings?
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 12:43 PM by WSJ
    The potential impact on lifetime earnings between growing up in a well-to-do neighborhood and a poor neighborhood is potentially larger than the difference between the earnings of the average college and high school graduate, according to a new study on social mobility.
  • 10:30 AM » How to Tell If a ‘Fact' About Millennials Isn't Actually a Fact
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 10:30 AM by WSJ
    It has become difficult to avoid "research" about so-called millennials. If any of the information sounds dubious, that's because it often is.
  • 10:29 AM » The Weather Really Can Hold Back the Economy–It's Not Just an Excuse
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 10:29 AM by WSJ
    Just in time for Thanksgiving, a winter storm is ruining travel plans. When the weather gets bad enough, not only does it ruin travel plans, it starts ruining economic data and forecasts.
  • 10:29 AM » Draghi Highlights the Eurozone's Unfinished Business
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 10:29 AM by WSJ
    Just sharing a currency isn't enough for the eurozone to defy its skeptics, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday.
  • 8:12 AM » Euro zone November inflation dips 0.3% year-on-year
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 8:12 AM by CNBC
    Read More Europe's economy faces three major risks: Draghi. Read More Europe's bond yields slide on hopes of ECB QE. Read More French, German economists' plan to beat' stagnation'.
  • 8:12 AM » Bond Gains Push Yields to Record Lows Across Europe Before CPI - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 8:12 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Gains Push Yields to Record Lows Across Europe Before CPI Bloomberg Euro-area government bonds advanced, pushing yields across the region to record lows, before a report economists said will show inflation matched a five-year low in November. Italian 10-year yields approached 2 percent before the data as investors ... and more »
  • 8:11 AM » 5 Things to Know About the Economy at Thanksgiving
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 8:11 AM by WSJ
    Here are five things to know about the U.S. economy when talk turns to mortgage rates and millennials at the Thanksgiving table.
  • 8:11 AM » WTI Crude Oil Falls Below $70
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 8:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the WSJ: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/opec-leaves-production-target-unchanged-oil-price-falls-1417086606">OPEC Leaves Production Target Unchanged</a><br /><blockquote>The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its 12 members, who collectively pump around one-third of the world's oil, would comply with its current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. That would involve a supply cut of around 300,000 barrels a day based on the cartel's output in October, according to the group's own data.<br />...<br />The oil producer group's decision led to a further sharp selloff in major global oil benchmarks, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Brent crude fell about 6% to below $73, a four-year low, while the West Texas Intermediate benchmark was down 3.2% to $71.36 a barrel.</blockquote><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2qXp2r9Z36Y/VHdh6F2pI8I/AAAAAAAAhcY/A7xgETnnwrs/s1600/OilPricesNov2014.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Oil Prices" border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2qXp2r9Z36Y/VHdh6F2pI8I/AAAAAAAAhcY/A7xgETnnwrs/s320/OilPricesNov2014.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image</span></b></i><br /><br />This graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm">from the EIA</a>. (Prices today added).<br /><br />According to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/">Bloomberg<...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:11 AM » US bonds rise after OPEC announcement
    Published Fri, Nov 28 2014 8:11 AM by CNBC
    U.S. sovereign bonds rose on Black Friday, with demand for "safe haven" assets boosted after OPEC's announcement.
  • Wed, Nov 26 2014
  • 3:43 PM » Yellen's 'optimal' model calls for rate hike this year, in theory
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 3:43 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said the tenor of economic data will decide when the U.S. central bank raises interest rates. Surprisingly, a data analysis based on Yellen's own priorities points to a rate increase by the end of this year.
  • 2:06 PM » Mass exodus from bond funds isn't likely
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 2:06 PM by CNBC
    Ron Insana doesn't think there's going to be a mass exodus from bond funds. Here's why.
  • 12:44 PM » New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 12:44 PM by WSJ
    The Wall Street Journal's Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, November 26, 2014. Jon Hilsenrath celebrates the end of household deleveraging in the U.S..
  • 12:10 PM » Seven-year yields rise after auction sees average demand
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 12:10 PM by Market Watch
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Yields for seven-year U.S. Treasury notes rose Wednesday after an auction of $29 billion in new seven-year notes saw modest demand. Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, didn't show up in large numbers, like they did at Tuesday's auction of five-year notes. Treasury yields rise as prices fall. The bid-cover ratio, an indicator of demand, was 2.63, compared to an average of 2.51 from the past four auctions. Indirect bidders took home 50% of what they bid for, compared to an average of 48%. CRT Capital Group's Ian Lyngen called it " very average auction" in a research note Wednesday. Seven-year [s:7_year] yield gained about 1.5 basis points from its pre-auction level.
  • 12:10 PM » High-Grade Bond Issuance Surges to Record $1.15 Trillion - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 12:10 PM by Bloomberg
    High-Grade Bond Issuance Surges to Record $1.15 Trillion Bloomberg Investment-grade debt sales surged to a record $1.15 trillion as the most creditworthy companies flocked to the U.S. bond market to take advantage of historically low interest rates. Apple Inc., Verizon Communications Inc. and Oracle Corp. were among ...
  • 10:35 AM » BofA Mortgage Ruling Helps Seal $16.7 Billion Accord - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 10:35 AM by Bloomberg
    BofA Mortgage Ruling Helps Seal $16.7 Billion Accord Bloomberg A final judgment against Bank of America Corp. in a mortgage-bond lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was signed by a federal judge, helping clear the way for the lender to complete a $16.7 billion global settlement of claims it misled ...
  • 10:35 AM » Nearly Half of All States and Half of the Top 50 Metro Housing Markets Now Showing Positive Momentum
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 10:35 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Nearly Half of All States and Half of the Top 50 Metro Housing Markets Now Showing Positive Momentum
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:35 AM » U.S. new home sales rise in October, but September revised down
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 10:35 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose for a third straight month in October, but a downward revision to the prior month's sales pace indicated the housing market recovery would remain gradual.
  • 10:35 AM » Pending home sales fell 1.1% in October
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 10:35 AM by CNBC
    U.S. home buyers signed fewer contracts to buy existing homes in October, even as the number of homes for sale increased.
  • 8:46 AM » Personal income up less than expected
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 8:46 AM by CNBC
    U.S. personal income and spending each rose 0.2 in October, slightly less than expected.
  • 8:37 AM » Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase to Almost Three-Month High - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 8:37 AM by Bloomberg
    Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase to Almost Three-Month High Bloomberg More Americans than forecast filed for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the improvement in the labor market has stalled. Jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 313,000 in the week ended Nov. 22, the highest since early September, from 292,000 ...
  • 8:37 AM » Orders for U.S. Business Equipment Unexpectedly Fell in October - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 8:37 AM by Bloomberg
    Orders for U.S. Business Equipment Unexpectedly Fell in October Bloomberg Orders for U.S. business equipment such as machinery and electrical gear unexpectedly declined in October, a sign that recent increases in corporate investment may not persist. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.3 percent for a ... and more »
  • 12:18 AM » Will China's property market unravel in 2015?
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 12:18 AM by CNBC
    China's wobbly property market has kept investors on edge this year, but the country's first rate cut in two years is expected to bring some stability into the all-important sector in 2015.
  • 12:18 AM » Wednesday: New Home Sales, Personal Income, Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home sales
    Published Wed, Nov 26 2014 12:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier the FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today. Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $38.7 billion in the third quarter of 2014, up $2.6 billion (7.3 percent) from earnings of $36.1 billion the industry reported a year earlier. The increase in earnings was mainly attributable to a $7.8 billion (4.8 percent) increase in net operating revenue (the sum of net interest income and total noninterest income), the biggest since the fourth quarter of 2009. ... The number of "problem banks" fell for the 14th consecutive quarter . The number of banks on the FDIC's "Problem List" declined from 354 to 329 during the quarter, the lowest since the 305 in the first quarter of 2009. The number of "problem" banks now is 63 percent below the post-crisis high of 888 at the end of the first quarter of 2011. Two FDIC-insured institutions failed in the third quarter, compared to six in the third quarter of 2013. The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) balance continued to increase . The DIF balance (the net worth of the Fund) rose to a record $54.3 billion as of September 30 from $51.1 billion at the end of June. The Fund balance increased primarily due to assessment income, recoveries from litigation settlements, and receivership asset recoveries that exceeded estimates. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, (This might be delayed due to the holiday) the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index . • At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 288 thousand from 291 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders. • Also at 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for October . The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Tue, Nov 25 2014
  • 4:46 PM » Bureaucratic Hoops Make D.C. Affordable Housing Units Hard To Sell
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 4:46 PM by www.npr.org
    This problem exists nationwide, but in the nation's capital, there are more requirements and restrictions. For example, D.C. limits the maximum resale price and makes homeowners wait before they sell.
  • 4:44 PM » New Mortgage Lending Drops to 13-Year Low
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 4:44 PM by WSJ
    New figures released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday show that mortgage lending is running at its lowest level in 13 years, with 2014 on pace to be the weakest for new loans since 2000.
  • 4:44 PM » Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in October, Lowest since December 2008
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 4:44 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in October to 1.91% from 1.96% in September. Freddie's rate is down from 2.28% in October 2013, and this is the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for October in a few days. Click on graph for larger image Although this indicates progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.57 percentage points over the last year - and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until late 2016. Note: Very few seriously delinquent loans cure with the owner making up back payments - most of the reduction in the serious delinquency rate is from foreclosures, short sales, and modifications.  So even though distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of Fannie and Freddie distressed sales for perhaps 2 more years (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:44 PM » Fannie, Freddie to Allow Debt Cuts for Some Foreclosed Borrowers - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 4:44 PM by Bloomberg
    Fannie, Freddie to Allow Debt Cuts for Some Foreclosed Borrowers Bloomberg Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) will let borrowers who have gone through foreclosure buy back their homes at market prices under a policy shift announced by the regulator for the two U.S.-owned companies. The change outlined by the Federal ... and more »
  • 3:15 PM » Moonlighting No Help to Americans Seeking to Buy a Home - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 3:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Moonlighting No Help to Americans Seeking to Buy a Home Bloomberg Yael Ishakis, a loan officer for First Meridian Mortgage, rejected an application three weeks ago from a woman who had a high credit score and a 20 percent down payment. The 47-year-old home health aide needed the combined income from her full-time ... and more »
  • 3:15 PM » Why 4% Growth Doesn't Feel That Hot
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 3:15 PM by WSJ
    The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up the annual growth rate for third-quarter real gross domestic product. So, why doesn't the U.S. economy feel like it's surging?
  • 1:42 PM » Treasurys trade higher after 5-year auction sees heavy demand
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 1:42 PM by Market Watch
    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys traded higher Tuesday after an auction of $35 billion in 5-year notes saw high demand from foreign investors as European bond yields remain stubbornly low. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio was 2.91, compared to an average of 2.64 from the last four auctions. A higher ratio indicates greater demand. Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, took home 65% of the bonds, compared to an average of 36% over the last four auctions. The yield at auction was 1.595%, compared to a 1.611% yield at 1 p.m., just minutes before the auction's results were announced. Yields move inversely to prices. The 5-year note yield was down 1.9 basis points on the day to 1.583% in recent trading.
  • 1:42 PM » Why Didn't New Jersey See More Declines in Household Debt?
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 1:42 PM by WSJ
    For complex reasons, one state stands out for its high debt loads and minimal deleveraging: New Jersey.
  • 1:42 PM » House Prices: Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in September
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 1:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The expected slowdown in year-over-year price increases is ongoing. In November 2013, the Comp 20 index was up 13.8% year-over-year (YoY). Now the index is only up 4.9% YoY . This is the smallest YoY increase since October 2012 (the National index was up 10.9% YoY in October 2013, is now up 4.8% - also the slowest YoY increase since October 2012. Looking forward, I expect the indexes to slow further on a YoY basis, however: 1) I don't expect the indexes to turn negative YoY (in 2015) , and 2) I think most of the slowdown on a YoY basis is now behind us. This slowdown was expected by several key analysts, and I think it is good news.  As Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries said today: " The days of double-digit home value appreciation continue to rapidly fade away as more inventory comes on line , and the market is becoming more balanced between buyers and sellers," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Like a perfectly prepared Thanksgiving turkey, it's important for things to cool off a bit in the housing market, because too-fast appreciation risks burning both buyers and sellers. In this more sedate environment, buyers can take more time to find the right deal for them, and sellers can rest assured they won't be left without a seat at the table when they turn around and become buyers. This slowdown is a critical step on the road back to a normal housing market , and as we approach the end of 2014, the housing market has plenty to be thankful for." emphasis added In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $278,600 today adjusted for inflation (39%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:52 PM » Saks real estate an 'added gift': CEO
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 12:52 PM by CNBC
    Hudson's Bay purchased the Saks chain for $2.9 billion last year, far less than the $3.7 billion valuation of its flagship store.
  • 12:51 PM » Closer View of the Housing Boom
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 12:51 PM by The Big Picture
    Click to see the animated changes to the map. Source: Urban Institute
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • 11:46 AM » NY Fed: Household Debt increased in Q3 2014, "Deleveraging process has ended"
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 11:46 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the Q3 report: Household Debt and Credit Report . From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased slightly in the 3rd quarter of 2014. As of September 30, 2014, total household indebtedness was $11.71 trillion, up by 0.7% from its level in the second quarter of 2014, an increase of $78 billion . Overall household debt still remains 7.6% below its 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion. Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, edged up by 0.4%. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports stand at $8.13 trillion, up by $35 billion from their level in the second quarter. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) dropped by $9 billion (1.7%) in the third quarter and now stand at $512 billion. Non-housing debt balances increased by 1.7 %, boosted by gains in all categories. Auto loan balances increased by $29 billion; student loan balances increased by $8 billion; credit card balances increased by $11 billion. New extensions increased for auto loans and credit cards, but were roughly flat for both mortgages and HELOCs. There were $105 billion in new auto loan originations, the highest volume since 2005Q3. The aggregate credit card limit continued to increase, and is up by 0.9% from the previous quarter. Mortgage originations, which we measure as appearances of new mortgage balances on consumer credit reports and which include refinanced mortgages, increased slightly to $337 billion but remain low by historical standards. HELOC limits were flat, down by 0.4%. Overall delinquency rates were flat overall in 2014Q3 As of September 30, 6.3% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared with 6.2% in 2014Q2. About $732 billion of debt is delinquent, with $506 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or "severely derogatory"). emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased slightly in Q3.  Household debt...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:31 AM » Confidence declines from October
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 10:31 AM by CNBC
    Consumer Confidence declined in November, despite expectations that lower oil prices would mean a strong number.
  • 9:40 AM » U.S. third-quarter growth rate revised up to 3.9 percent
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 9:40 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth was far stronger than initially thought in the third quarter, pointing to strengthening fundamentals that should support the economy for the rest of the year.
  • 9:39 AM » Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for October 2014
    Published Tue, Nov 25 2014 9:39 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for October 2014
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
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