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  • Mon, Mar 30 2015
  • 1:05 AM » Rent or buy? Depends on your 'horizon': Zillow
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:05 AM by CNBC
    Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries tells CNBC's "On the Money" that home ownership is a good bet when "buying is more advantageous than renting."
  • 1:04 AM » Possible Upside Surprise for Pending Home Sales Index
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release Pending Home Sales for February tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index. Housing economist Tom Lawler mentioned in his existing home sales forecast a week ago: While not enough local realtors/MLS either report data on new pending sales or report accurate/consistent data on new pending sales for me to produce a "national" estimate, most or the realtors/MLS that do report such data showed significantly faster YOY growth in pending sales in February compared to January. Note: The NAR reported Pending Home sales increased 1.7% in January. Lawler sent me a note today: Based on the admittedly limited number of other publicly-available regional/MLS reports on pending home sales, I'd look for an "upside surprise" to the NAR's Pending Home Sales Index for February. Lawler added this example of local data from the California Association of Realtors: • California pending home sales jumped in February, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* increasing 24.8 percent from a revised 89.9 in January to 112.2, based on signed contracts. The month-to-month increase easily topped the long-run average increase of 17.9 percent observed in the last seven years. • Statewide pending home sales were up 15.6 percent on an annual basis from the 97.1 index recorded in February 2014. The yearly increase was the largest since April 2009 and was the first double-digit gain since April 2012. Note: The YOY increase in the CAR PHSI in January was 6.0%. Look for a possible upside surprise tomorrow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:04 AM » Merrill and Nomura Forecasts for March Employment Report
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here are some excepts from two research reports ... first from Merrill Lynch: The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months. Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number. Within the components, we should continue to see a shedding of jobs in the mining sector, which lost a cumulative 14,000 over the past two months. The plunge in oil prices has resulted in layoffs in oil and gas production. Elsewhere, we expect decent growth in construction jobs but a slowdown in manufacturing hiring given the recent weakness in the PMI surveys. We will also be closely looking at the trend in retail hiring as an indicator of the beginning of the spring shopping season. Overall, this will leave private payroll growth of 260,000 and public of 10,000. Despite strong job growth, we think the unemployment rate will tick up to 5.6%. The unrounded unemployment rate in February was 5.54%, making it a "high" 5.5%. The risk is that the labor force participation rate increases, reversing the decline in February. As always, the focus will be on wages. We look for a 0.2% gain, an improvement from the 0.12% increase in February. This would leave the yoy rate at 2.0%. We think the risk, however, is that average hourly earnings surprises on the upside relative to our forecast. From Nomura: Job growth has been very strong recently. Incoming data have tilted negative in March, but on balance still suggest that payrolls increased at a solid pace. Regional manufacturing surveys released thus far in March have come in less optimistic, suggesting that manufacturing jobs probably grew at a slower rate. Initial and continuing jobless claims have remained low throughout the month but were higher in the BLS survey period in March compared with the same period in February. Based on readings of these labor market indicators, we forecast a 220k increase in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:03 AM » How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street's Masters of Universe
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:03 AM by Bloomberg
    How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street's Masters of Universe Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Time was, Sherman McCoy could stride into Pierce & Pierce to bray for money on the bond markets with other Masters of the Universe. That was 1987. McCoy, the hotshot bond dealer at the center of the "Bonfire of the Vanities," would be 66 by ...
  • 1:03 AM » Monday: Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:03 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Times: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/30/business/a-deadline-for-greece-and-us-jobs-data.html">A Deadline for Greece, and U.S. Jobs Data</a><br /><blockquote>Greece hopes to gain approval on Monday for a detailed list of economic changes that its international creditors have demanded ...<br /><br />... recent economic data has been anemic, and it is likely that hiring has not kept up with the blistering pace of gains reached in late 2014. In fact, some economists say hiring could fall below the 200,000 level because of a combination of bad weather and weakness in certain sectors like drilling and energy production.</blockquote>Monday:<br />• 8:30 AM ET, <b>Personal Income and Outlays for February</b>. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.<br /><br />• At 10:00 AM, the <b>Pending Home Sales Index</b> for February. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.<br /><br />• At 10:30 AM, <b>Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey</b> for March.<br /><br />Weekend:<br />• <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-29-2015.html">Schedule for Week of March 29, 2015</a><br /><br />• <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/03/lawler-possible-upside-surprise-for.html">Lawler: Possible Upside Surprise for Pending Home Sales Index</a><br /><br />• <a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/03/merrill-and-nomura-forecasts-for-march.html">Merrill and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:03 AM » Dollar subdued as Fed drives home patience message
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 1:03 AM by CNBC
    The dollar started trade on Monday pretty much where it closed in New York after the head of the U.S. central bank assured investors that the path back to 'normal' interest rates will only occur at a gradual pace.
  • 12:59 AM » White House Stays Course on Homeownership Push
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 12:59 AM by www.wsj.com
    Officials at the White House and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development are close to tapping Edward Golding, a senior adviser at HUD, to lead the Federal Housing Administration.
  • 12:59 AM » Bond Market Inflation Outlook Picks Up Even as Price Data Lag
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 12:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Market Inflation Outlook Picks Up Even as Price Data Lag Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- The outlook for inflation is picking up in the bond market, even if it isn't showing up in the government data. Yields show investors increased their forecasts for gains in global consumer prices to 1.42 percent a year, the highest level in 21 months ...
  • 12:58 AM » The Future of the U.S. Housing Finance System: Bringing the U.S. Residential Mortgage Finance System into the 21st Century
    Published Mon, Mar 30 2015 12:58 AM by The Big Picture
    The Future of the U.S. Housing Finance System: Bringing the U.S. Residential Mortgage Finance System into the 21st Century<br/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/3c89zTdvsFE/
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Big Picture
  • Fri, Mar 27 2015
  • 4:38 PM » 5 Quotes From Janet Yellen's Speech to the San Francisco Fed
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 4:38 PM by WSJ
    Here are five key quotes from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's remarks to a conference at the San Francisco Fed.
  • 4:17 PM » Freddie Mac Executes Largest Ever Sale of Seriously Delinquent Loans From Its Investment Portfolio
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 4:17 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Executes Largest Ever Sale of Seriously Delinquent Loans From Its Investment Portfolio
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 4:17 PM » Mortgage Performance Improved During the Fourth Quarter of 2014
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 4:17 PM by OCC
    The performance of first-lien mortgages serviced by eight national banks improved in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's (OCC) quarterly report on mortgage performance.
  • 4:17 PM » Fed rate hike may be warranted later this year: Yellen
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 4:17 PM by Reuters
    SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is giving "serious consideration" to beginning to reduce its accommodative monetary policy and a rate hike may be warranted later this year, although a downturn in core inflation or wage growth could force it to hold off, the central bank's chief said on Friday.
  • 12:52 PM » Greece says sending reform list on Friday
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 12:52 PM by CNBC
    Greece is submitting a long-awaited list of reforms to lenders on Friday in the hope it will unlock badly needed cash, a Greek official said.
  • 11:10 AM » US consumer sentiment at 93.0 in March vs. 92.0 estimate
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 11:10 AM by CNBC
    This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast the index to drop to 92.0 for the final March reading.
  • 11:10 AM » CFPB shows its hand on payday (and title and longer-term high-rate) lending
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 11:10 AM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Jeremy T. Rosenblum The CFPB has moved a step closer to issuing payday loan rules by releasing a press release, factsheet and outline of the proposals it is considering in preparation for convening a small business review panel required by the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act and Dodd-Frank. The CFPB’s proposals are sweeping in terms of the... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 11:10 AM » Fourth-Quarter GDP – At A Glance
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 11:10 AM by WSJ
    U.S. economic output expanded at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final months of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's a quick look at the report.
  • 11:09 AM » Schäuble: Wrong to Support QE While Criticizing German Surplus
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 11:09 AM by WSJ
    German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said it isn't fair for international finance officials to support European Central Bank quantitative easing, while at the same time criticizing Germany's current account surplus, given that the former causes the latter to rise.
  • 10:24 AM » Interest Rates Aren't Going Anywhere . . .
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 10:24 AM by www.bloombergview.com
    I have been fairly agnostic on several issues related to where interest rates are heading. It has never been my job to forecast where the 10-year yield will be in six months. Not predicting and not caring are two very different things, however. Rates matter a great deal - to investors, to the economy and most of all to debtors of every kind. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone in finance who would ever admit to believing that rates don't matter. Despite the importance of bond yields and borrowing costs, few seem to have any idea how to analyze them in a way that provides a helpful conclusion.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.bloombergview.com
  • 10:19 AM » U.S. consumer sentiment falls in March but above forecasts
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 10:19 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell month-over-month in March, a survey released on Friday showed, though the reading was better than expected.
  • 10:17 AM » It's Almost Impossible to Buy a House in Dallas - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 10:17 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg It's Almost Impossible to Buy a House in Dallas Bloomberg Last year, Rick Smith put his family's house in suburban Dallas on the market, hoping to find a new home close to better schools and the city's downtown. Selling the old house was a snap; buying a new one wasn't. In January the family moved to a town home ...
  • 8:50 AM » US GDP at 2.2% in Q4; corporate profits fall
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 8:50 AM by CNBC
    U.S. was seen expanding at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter. The economy grew at a 5 percent rate in the third quarter.
  • 8:49 AM » Draghi a World-Beater in Moving Markets as ECB Confounds Critics
    Published Fri, Mar 27 2015 8:49 AM by Bloomberg
    Draghi a World-Beater in Moving Markets as ECB Confounds Critics Bloomberg Just three weeks into his campaign to revive inflation by injecting cash into the economy with bond purchases, the European Central Bank president has gotten the desired trading results. Bond yields have plunged, the euro has weakened and stocks have ... and more »
  • Thu, Mar 26 2015
  • 11:45 PM » Fed market gurus prep rate hike amid last-minute anxieties
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 11:45 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve officials tasked with prying interest rates off the floor have been meeting with bankers and traders to plot how best to do it, amid deep uncertainty over how much control they will really have over short-term lending markets.
  • 11:41 PM » Friday: Yellen, GDP, Consumer Sentiment
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 11:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch on the March employment report: The recent employment reports have been exceptionally strong with job growth averaging 293,000 a month for the past six months. Although we expect a slight moderation in March with job growth of 270,000, this would still be a healthy number. ... Despite strong job growth, we think the unemployment rate will tick up to 5.6%. ... The risk is that the labor force participation rate increases, reversing the decline in February. As always, the focus will be on wages. We look for a 0.2% gain, an improvement from the 0.12% increase in February. This would leave the yoy rate at 2.0%. We think the risk, however, is that average hourly earnings surprises on the upside relative to our forecast. Friday: • 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product , 4th quarter 2014 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q4, up from the second estimate of 2.2%. • At 10:00 AM, the University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 91.8, up from the preliminary reading of 91.2, but down from the February reading of 95.4. • Also at 10:00 AM, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly), February 2015 • At 1:30 PM, Speech, Fed Chair Janet Yellen , Monetary Policy , At the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Conference: The New Normal for Monetary Policy, San Francisco, Calif
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:20 PM » When cheap housing isn't really a good deal
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 4:20 PM by Washington Post
    The golden rule of housing affordability - embraced by government agencies, mortgage lenders, private landlords and the financially savvy - says you that should not spend more than around 30 percent of your income on your housing costs.Read full article >>
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 2:31 PM » 10-year note hits 2%
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 2:31 PM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields traded at 2 percent on Thursday after the Treasury Department sold $29 billion in seven-year notes.
  • 2:30 PM » Fed Shouldn't Raise Rates Yet Because Job Market Still Ailing
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 2:30 PM by WSJ
    The Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising interest rates just because the headline unemployment rate is falling, according to new research from two former central bank officials who are concerned the often-cited figure vastly overstates improvements in the job market.
  • 2:29 PM » Draghi Says ECB Will Reach QE Target Even in Shorter First Month - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 2:29 PM by Bloomberg
    Draghi Says ECB Will Reach QE Target Even in Shorter First Month Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said he's confident that his bond-buying program will hit its targets in the first month of operation. "We count on reaching" the target of 60 billion euros ($65 billion) though the operation only started ... and more »
  • 12:34 PM » Fed officials say rate hike plan intact despite weak U.S. data
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 12:34 PM by Reuters
    DETROIT (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should remain on track to raise interest rates later this year despite the U.S. economy's weak start to the year and a stock market sell-off this week, two Fed officials said on Thursday.
  • 12:34 PM » Low interest rates causing 'huge problems' in Germany: Schaeuble
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 12:34 PM by Reuters
    BERLIN (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday that record low interest rates were causing considerable problems in Germany but added that he was not criticizing the European Central Bank which needed to defend its inflation target.
  • 11:38 AM » Fed's Bullard: Risks of Keeping U.S. Policy Rates at Zero Too Long ‘May be Substantial'
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 11:38 AM by WSJ
    Current low levels of U.S. inflation are likely temporary and the risks of keeping U.S. policy rates at zero for too long "may be substantial," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, said Thursday.
  • 10:58 AM » Consumer Comfort in U.S. Matches Second-Highest Level Since 2007
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 10:58 AM by Bloomberg
    Consumer Comfort in U.S. Matches Second-Highest Level Since 2007 Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence climbed last week to match the second-highest level since July 2007, propelled in part by gains among lower-income earners and job seekers as the labor market improves. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose ...
  • 10:57 AM » ECB's Draghi says money printing will help recovery
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 10:57 AM by Reuters
    ROME (Reuters) - Bond-buying by the European Central Bank will reinforce the euro zone's economic recovery, its president, Mario Draghi, said on Thursday, adding that there was already evidence that the scheme was taking effect.
  • 10:51 AM » Fed's Lockhart: Surprised by strong dollar's impact on economy
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 10:51 AM by Market Watch
    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said Thursday he was surprised how much the stronger dollar seemed to be impacting the economy. In an interview with CNBC, Lockhart said that he had, at first, downplayed the dollar's sharp rise as a factor because the U.S. economy was not export-driven. But now "the impact of the dollar is something I have upgraded in terms of importance," he said. The stronger dollar "is a doubt, a question mark," he said. While he still doesn't think the impact from the strong dollar would be "terribly significant," it could have 'some dampening effect," he said. Lockhart said the first quarter growth rate looked "very soft," but added that it was likely "transitory." A voting member of the Fed policy committee this year, Lockhart repeated that he sees the first interest rate hike coming "mid-year or a little bit later."
  • 10:51 AM » Fed's QE cost savers $470B: Study
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 10:51 AM by CNBC
    Swiss Re's report called the impact of low-rate dollar-cheapening policies "indisputable."
  • 10:47 AM » House flippers' new tactic: Crowdfunding
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 10:47 AM by CNBC
    Unlike during the housing boom, some house flippers can't get mortgages to ply their trade. Instead they are turning to crowdfunding.
  • 8:55 AM » Stuck With a House That Can't Be Sold
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 8:55 AM by The Atlantic
    Even though the housing market is improving, some owners with troubled properties won't see relief anytime soon.
  • 8:55 AM » US housing starts will be slow and steady: CFO
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 8:55 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. house building market will recover to its former glory, according to the chief financial officer of the world's largest brick maker.
  • 8:52 AM » Foreign buying of U.S. bonds more talk than reality
    Published Thu, Mar 26 2015 8:52 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The advantage of higher yields in the United States has not prompted foreign buying as investors had expected, and central banks have instead dumped Treasuries in recent months.
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