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  • Tue, Apr 7 2020
  • 11:53 AM » Phase 4 Disaster Relief
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 11:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Most of what I proposed in early March was enacted. This includes Federal government adding to unemployment insurance (UI), expanding the coverage of UI, small business loans, free testing and care, and sending money to everyone (and much much more than I proposed).  That was a start. Now is the time to address Phase 4 of Disaster Relief. But first, a key point: This is disaster relief, not "stimulus". Many politicians and reporters are used to using the term "stimulus" for government packages. We are NOT trying to stimulate the economy, we are filling in an economic hole. The first goal of disaster relief is to fight the virus . This includes any and all support for our healthcare workers and first responders, building up the supply chain of critical items like Personal Protection Equipment (PPE), and building a robust test-and-trace program that is a key to reopening parts of the economy. The second goal of disaster relief is to fill the economic hole caused by the disaster .   There has been a sudden stop in economic activity, however the financial world continues.  Some people are advocating suspending paying bills, such as rents, mortgages, insurance, credit card, bond payments, and other bills during the crisis.  This is a terrible idea. We don't want to add a financial crisis, on top of an economic crisis, on top of a healthcare crisis. If we have a financial crisis too, it will be much hard to eventually reopen the economy. We want to provide sufficient economic support during the crisis so that people can pay their bills. This should be the message from all politicians: Pay your bills. For Phase 4, I'd suggest: 1. Another round of direct payments to households (send another $1,200 this month, and $1,200 next month). 2. Massive support for State and Local governments (Say $2,000 per person in each state). 3. Rent and mortgage assistance for individuals and small businesses.  If the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:19 AM » Pandemic to wipe out 6.7% of working hours worldwide in second quarter: ILO
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 11:19 AM by Reuters
    The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to wipe out 6.7% of working hours globally in the second quarter of this year, equivalent to the labour of 195 million full-time workers, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said on Tuesday.
  • 10:27 AM » The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Down—and the Coronavirus Will Make It Worse
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 10:27 AM by
    The number of homes for sale was near record lows before the coronavirus pandemic. Now inventory is falling even more before the spring buying season. The post The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Down-and the Coronavirus Will Make It Worse appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:23 AM » Mortgage forbearance requests jump nearly 2,000% as borrowers seek relief during coronavirus outbreak
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 10:23 AM by CNBC
    Forbearance requests grew by 1,270% between the week March 2 and the week of March 16, and another 1,896% between the week of March 16 and the week of March 30, according to numbers released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • 10:15 AM » BLS: Job Openings decreased to 6.9 Million in February
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 10:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is pre-crisis data. From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of February , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.2 percent. ... In February, the number of quits was little changed at 3.5 million while the rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent . Total private quits were little changed while the quits level edged up for government (+15,000). Quits decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-27,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February, the most recent employment report was for March. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in February to 6.882 million from 7.012 million in January. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 2% year-over-year. Quits were down 1% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings were at a solid level, but had been declining recently.  Quits were mostly flat year-over-year. However this was for February - the picture will change sharply...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:26 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.1% Year-over-year in February
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 9:26 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports February Home Prices Increased by 4.1% Year Over Year CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2020, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 4.1% from February 2019. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.6% in February 2020. (January 2020 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.) The CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects U.S. home prices to increase by 0.5% from February 2020 to March 2020. Homes that settle during March will largely reflect purchase contracts that were signed in January and February, before the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak . The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. (The HPI Forecast for February was produced with projections for economic variables available prior to mid-March and does not incorporate subsequent deterioration in the economy.) "Before the onset of the pandemic, the quickening of home price growth during the first two months of 2020 highlighted the strength of purchase activity," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "In February, the national unemployment rate matched a 50-year low, mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in more than three years and for-sale inventory remained lean, all contributing to the pickup in value growth." "The nearly 10-year-old recovery of the U.S. housing market has run headlong into the panic and uncertainty from the global COVID-19 pandemic . In terms of home value trends...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:50 AM » Here's exactly what you need to do if you lose your job
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 8:50 AM by CNBC
    In the wake of losing your job, it can be hard to figure out your most important moves. These three items should go straight to the top of your to-do list.
  • 8:28 AM » This Is Where We'll Likely See the First Wave of Coronavirus-Fueled Foreclosures
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 8:28 AM by
    With millions of Americans filing for unemployment recently, another wave of foreclosures may be coming-especially in these parts of the country. The post This Is Where We’ll Likely See the First Wave of Coronavirus-Fueled Foreclosures appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:06 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales up 6.5% YoY, Inventory down 17% YoY
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 8:06 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Las Vegas will probably see a significant decline in visitor and convention traffic over the next several months due to COVID-19.  This will likely have a significant impact on local real estate.  Sales in March were solid, and prices were at a new high, however sales are counted when at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were signed in January and February.  The impact from COVID-19 will be in future months . The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices set new record in March despite coronavirus crisis; LVR housing statistics for March 2020 The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during March was 3,472. Compared to the same time last year, March sales were up 5.2% for homes and up 11.7% for condos and townhomes. ... By the end of March, LVR reported 5,687 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 19.8% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,628 properties listed without offers in March represented a 7.0% drop from one year ago. Meanwhile, the number of so-called distressed sales in March remained near historically low levels. The association reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for 2.0% of all existing local property sales in March. That compares to 2.5% of all sales one year ago, 2.9% two years ago, and 9.8% three years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up 6.5% year-over-year to 3,472 in March 2020 from 3,260 in March 2019. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 8,842 in March 2019 to 7,315 in March 2020. Note: Total inventory was down 17.3% year-over-year.   And months of inventory is still low. 3) Low level of distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:06 AM » Treasury yields edge higher as investors hope for coronavirus slowdown
    Published Tue, Apr 07 2020 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were slightly lower Tuesday morning after Wall Street's sharp rally to start the week, as investors continue to monitor the spread of the coronavirus.
  • Mon, Apr 6 2020
  • 4:27 PM » Fed says it will provide financing against new U.S. 'payroll protection' loans
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 4:27 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve on Monday moved to bolster a new small-business lending program by allowing banks to turn those loans over to the U.S. central bank for cash, easing concerns among banks about getting stuck holding the low interest loans.
  • 4:26 PM » Wall Street soars 7% on hopes of slowing coronavirus deaths
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 4:26 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rocketed higher on Monday, with each of the major indexes rallying about 7%, after a fall in the daily death toll in New York, the country's biggest coronavirus hot spot, fueled optimism a leveling off of the pandemic was on the horizon.
  • 4:24 PM » Mall owners worried over mortgage payments as retailers skip rent
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 4:24 PM by CNBC
    Retailers are worried about paying rent. And that has mall owners increasingly worried about meeting their own obligations.
  • 2:39 PM » Many Americans say those $1,200 stimulus checks won't be enough. What it would take to get more money
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 2:39 PM by CNBC
    The U.S. government is only just starting to roll out stimulus payments to individuals and families. However, many already say that money won't be enough. Here's what it would take for additional funds to be sent out.
  • 12:54 PM » Coronavirus mortgage bailout: 'There is going to be complete chaos,' says industry CEO
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 12:54 PM by CNBC
    A broad coalition of mortgage and finance industry leaders sent a plea to federal regulators, asking for desperately needed cash to keep the mortgage system running. This, as requests from borrowers for the federal mortgage forbearance program are flooding in at an alarming rate.
  • 12:45 PM » S&P 500 set to recoup $1 trillion in value as virus deaths slow
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 12:45 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 was on track to recoup about $1 trillion in market value in a frantic rally on Monday after New York, the biggest U.S. coronavirus hot spot, reported a fall in daily deaths, raising hopes that the pandemic could level-off soon.
  • 11:01 AM » White House considering U.S. Treasury coronavirus bond: Kudlow
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 11:01 AM by Reuters
    White House advisers have been discussing the possibility of a coronavirus-related U.S. Treasury bond, President Donald Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC on Monday.
  • 11:01 AM » Yellen says the Fed doesn't need to buy equities now, but Congress should reconsider allowing it
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 11:01 AM by CNBC
    Yellen says the Fed doesn't need to buy equities now, but Congress should reconsider allowing it<br/>
  • 10:52 AM » Citi says global earnings may fall 50% and stock prices could then drop by the same amount
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 10:52 AM by CNBC
    "The lockdown in response to the coronavirus outbreak has delivered a severe shock to the global economy," a strategist said.
  • 10:50 AM » Coronavirus is 'not an excuse'—real estate CEO says those who can should pay their rent
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 10:50 AM by CNBC
    "Some people have lost their jobs, and it's our obligation to work with them," Related Companies CEO Jeff Blau told CNBC.
  • 9:48 AM » El-Erian foresees more volatility but finds Monday's rally on medical news encouraging
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 9:48 AM by CNBC
    "I've always said it's a medical solution that forms a bottom for this market," economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.
  • 9:48 AM » Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Down 25% Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 9:48 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined sharply from the record highs in early 2018, and then increased until the COVID-19 crisis. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through Apr 3, 2020 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are unchanged from a year ago, and CME futures are down 25% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. The trade war led to significant volatility in lumber prices in 2018.   Prices have fallen sharply due to COVID-19 (Note: Construction is considered an essential activity is ongoing in many areas)
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:13 AM » Bank of America sees booming rescue loan demand, with applications for nearly 10% of allotment
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 9:13 AM by CNBC
    Bank of America said it's seen fierce demand for rescue loans with applications accounting for about 10% of the amount provided by Congress.
  • 8:39 AM » Young Adults Headship Trends Reversed Pre-Coronavirus
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 8:39 AM by
    For the first time in decades, headship rates of young adults ages 25-34 increased in 2018. This was a hopeful indicator that the troublesome trend of rising shares of young adults living with parents, relatives or sharing house with roommates finally reversed. Whether the trend reversal can be sustained through and post the coronavirus outbreak depends on the duration and... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:06 AM » Fed's Bullard says another coronavirus economic relief bill may not be needed
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 8:06 AM by Reuters
    A top official at the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Sunday the $2.3 trillion economic relief bill approved by Congress was appropriately sized and that a further relief effort may not be needed if support efforts are well executed.
  • 8:05 AM » Fed's Bullard says US economy not in 'free fall' despite 32% unemployment projection
    Published Mon, Apr 06 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    "The uptake on the unemployment insurance program is a good thing because it means you're getting the transfers to the people that are being disrupted by this health-ordered shutdown," St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said.
  • Fri, Apr 3 2020
  • 4:49 PM » White House Stresses Payments Will Come Soon, As Unemployment Soars
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 4:49 PM by
    The Trump administration has promised that the first direct payments to taxpayers will arrive in two weeks. The White House has scheduled a briefing on its coronavirus response for 5 p.m. ET.
  • 3:56 PM » Richmond Fed's Barkin: Employment numbers to get worse before getting better
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 3:56 PM by Reuters
    U.S. employment numbers will get worse amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak before getting better, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said in an interview with Bloomberg News.
  • 3:56 PM » The watchdogs overseeing the $2.3 trillion U.S. bailout
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 3:56 PM by Reuters
    Who's watching over the U.S. government's largest bailout in history - the $2.3 trillion in fiscal stimulus to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus?
  • 3:21 PM » Fed Chair Powell spoke with Trump as central bank geared up for virus response
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 3:21 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had two previously undisclosed phone calls with U.S. President Trump in February, calendars released on Friday show, including a brief call during the last week of the month when it was becoming clearer that the coronavirus would likely have more than a transitory effect on the U.S. economy.
  • 2:48 PM » Residential construction is bright spot in jobs report, but more workers start to stay home
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 2:48 PM by CNBC
    Construction has been deemed essential by the federal government, but a growing number of residential construction workers are pulling back, worried about catching the coronavirus.
  • 2:25 PM » Builders Were Scrambling To Fill a Severe Housing Shortage—and Then the Coronavirus Hit. What Now?
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 2:25 PM by
    Before most folks had heard of coronavirus, builders couldn't put homes up fast enough. The pandemic is likely to slow home construction even further. The post Builders Were Scrambling To Fill a Severe Housing Shortage-and Then the Coronavirus Hit. What Now? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:04 PM » Coronavirus loan program delayed for independent contractors and self-employed workers
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 2:04 PM by CNBC
    A $349 billion loan program opened April 3 for small businesses to help cushion the economic blow from the coronavirus pandemic. Independent contractors and self-employed workers must wait another week.
  • 11:44 AM » Here's how the U.S.'s Main Street bailout program is going so far
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 11:44 AM by Reuters
    The Trump administration's bailout program for small and mid-sized businesses, which aims to keep companies that employ 60 million Americans afloat despite widespread shutdowns related to the new coronavirus, launched on Friday.
  • 10:47 AM » Bank of America received 10,000 applications within first hour of small business loan program
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 10:47 AM by Reuters
    Bank of America Corp Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said the bank has already received roughly 10,000 applications for federally backed small business loans within the first hour of starting to accept them.
  • 10:05 AM » March ISM non-manufacturing index comes in at 52.5, vs 45 expected
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 10:05 AM by CNBC
    Activity in the U.S. services sector slowed down in March as business grapple with the coronavirus outbreak, data released Friday by the Institute for Supply Management showed.
  • 9:41 AM » U.S. small banks have processed more than 700 small business relief loans for $2.5 million: Mnuchin
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 9:41 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Friday that community banks have processed hundreds of small business loans aimed at shoring up the economy amid the global coronavirus pandemic, and sounded a positive note about a new program that lenders have greeted with skepticism.
  • 8:50 AM » Small businesses have 'a million questions' about paycheck relief loan as applications come due
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 8:50 AM by CNBC
    As the SBA prepares to start accepting applications for payroll relief loans on Friday, business owners are confused about the program's details.
  • 8:32 AM » US payrolls drop 701,000 in March, the first jobs decline since 2010
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 8:32 AM by CNBC
    Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. were expected to decline by 10,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 3.7%, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:19 AM » Coronavirus could create 'a generation of supersavers' and reshape the economy
    Published Fri, Apr 03 2020 8:19 AM by CNBC
    A generation of risk-averse supersavers could emerge from the fallout of the coronavirus crisis and potentially reshape the economy, experts have said.
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