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  • Fri, Dec 13 2019
  • 4:55 PM » Wall Street steady as U.S., China announce trade deal
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 4:55 PM by Reuters
    The S&P 500 and the Dow industrials ended little changed on Friday, hitting record highs in the session, as the United States and China announced an initial trade agreement, cooling tensions that have rattled markets.
  • 4:55 PM » Fed policymakers see U.S. economy on good footing
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 4:55 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy is doing well and looks set to stay that way next year, two top Federal Reserve policymakers said on Friday, remarks that suggest they are content to leave interest rates where they are.
  • 3:11 PM » U.S. may impose tariffs on Chinese imports if any disputes: Kudlow
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 3:11 PM by Reuters
    The United States could levy tariffs against China if there are any disputes, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said about the U.S.-China "phase one" trade agreement announced on Friday.
  • 1:54 PM » China to buy additional $32 billion in U.S. farm goods over two years, sign deal in January: USTR
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 1:54 PM by Reuters
    China has agreed to buy $32 billion of additional U.S. farm products over two years as part of a phase one trade pact, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters on Friday, adding the deal would be signed the first week of January.
  • 1:35 PM » US weighing 100% tariffs on more EU products including whiskies and Cognac, according to documents
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 1:35 PM by CNBC
    The U.S. is weighing tariffs of up to 100% on European products it previously absolved, including Irish and Scotch whiskies and Cognac.
  • 12:28 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.0%
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 12:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch The retail sales data nudged 3Q and 4Q GDP tracking a tenth lower to 2.1% and 1.5% qoq saar . [Dec 13 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.7% for 2019:Q4 and 0.8% for 2020:Q1. [Dec 13 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.0 percent on December 13, unchanged from December 6. [Dec 13 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:50 AM » Trump: U.S. to suspend scheduled tariffs after reaching deal with China
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 10:50 AM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said the United States had reached a so-called Phase One trade deal with China in which Washington would suspend tariffs on Chinese imports scheduled for Sunday, while Beijing would step up purchases of U.S. agricultural products.
  • 9:45 AM » The Fed is ramping up its repo operations to head off year-end funding issues
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 9:45 AM by CNBC
    There will be several additional offerings that will inject at least another $425 billion into a market that provides critical short-term funding for banks
  • 8:34 AM » US retail sales rose a less than expected 0.2% in November
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 8:34 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in November as Americans cut back on discretionary spending, which could see economists dialing back economic growth forecasts for the fourth quarter.
  • 8:02 AM » A U.S. 'deal in principle' with China on trade may be more limited than October pledge
    Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 8:02 AM by Reuters
    The White House reached a "deal in principle" with Beijing on trade, sources briefed on the talks said on Thursday, but it may be narrower than the "Phase 1" deal U.S. President Donald Trump promised in October.
  • Thu, Dec 12 2019
  • 4:51 PM » Congress reaches a tentative deal to fund the government as shutdown deadline nears
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 4:51 PM by CNBC
    Congress reaches a tentative deal to fund the government as shutdown deadline nears<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/congress-reaches-funding-deal-as-government-shutdown-nears.html
  • 2:52 PM » U.S. Reaches Deal in Principle With China, Awaits Trump Sign-Off
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 2:52 PM by Bloomberg
    U.S. negotiators have reached the terms of a phase-one trade deal with China that now awaits President Donald Trump's approval, according to people briefed on the plans, Bloomberg News reports.
  • 1:51 PM » U.S. offers China tariff rate cut; announcement 'imminent'
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 1:51 PM by Reuters
    The United States has offered to cut existing tariffs on Chinese goods by as much as 50% and suspend new tariffs expected to go into effect Sunday in an attempt to secure a "Phase One" trade deal.
  • 1:11 PM » Wall Street hits record high as trade hopes rise
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 1:11 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street hit record levels on Thursday after President Donald Trump tweeted that the United States was "very close" to a trade deal with China and on a report that U.S. trade negotiators had offered to cancel a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese goods.
  • 1:09 PM » This week's podcast: HUD's proposed changes to its Fair Housing Act disparate impact rule
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 1:09 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Our podcast looks at the proposed changes to HUD's rule for establishing liability under the FHA for discriminatory practices based on disparate impact even without discriminatory intent. We discuss the proposal's history, five-part burden-shifting framework, available defenses (looking closely at those for models used to assess credit risk), and HUD's likely next steps. Click here... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:33 AM » Tracking Lifetime Homeownership Rates
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 11:33 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    A recent NAHB Special Study uses the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NYLS) to study lifetime homeownership rates and how long individuals sustain in homeownership. The study finds a lifetime homeownership rate of 90.5% among the 1979 NLSY cohort, meaning that most people become homeowners at some point in life (Figure 1). This finding is a reminder of the importance... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:52 AM » CoreLogic: 2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2019
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 10:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 78,000 Single-Family Properties Regained Equity in the Third Quarter of 2019 CoreLogic® ... today released the Home Equity Report for the third quarter of 2019. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 64% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 5.1% year over year, representing a gain of nearly $457 billion since the third quarter of 2018. ... From the second quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2019, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 4% to 2 million homes or 3.7% of all mortgaged properties. The number of mortgaged properties in negative equity during the third quarter of 2019 fell by 10%, or 220,000 homes, compared to the third quarter of 2018 , when 2.2 million homes, or 4.1% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. ... "Ten years ago, during the depths of the Great Recession, more than 11 million homeowners had negative equity or 25% of mortgaged homes," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "After more than eight years of rising home prices and employment growth, underwater owners have been slashed to just 2 million, or less than 4% of mortgaged homes." Negative equity, often referred to as being underwater or upside down, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in a home's value, an increase in mortgage debt or both. Negative equity peaked at 26% of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis, which began in the third quarter of 2009. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from CoreLogic compares Q3 to Q2 equity distribution by LTV. There are still quite a few properties with LTV over 125%. On a year-over-year basis, the number of homeowners with negative equity has declined from 2.2 million to 2.0 million.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:31 AM » U.S. Offers to Slash Existing Tariffs on China Imports and Cancel New Levies
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 10:31 AM by www.wsj.com
    U.S. Offers to Slash Existing Tariffs on China Imports and Cancel New Levies
  • 9:41 AM » Trump: 'Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!'
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 9:41 AM by CNBC
    Trump: 'Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!'<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/12/trump-getting-very-close-to-a-big-deal-with-china-they-want-it-and-so-do-we.html
  • 8:45 AM » US weekly jobless claims race to a more than 2-year high
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 8:45 AM by CNBC
    Initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged to 252,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, the highest reading since September 2017, the Labor Department said.
  • 8:45 AM » US producer prices were unchanged in November; underlying inflation soft
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 8:45 AM by CNBC
    U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in November as increases in food and gasoline prices were offset by declining costs for services.
  • 8:23 AM » ECB holds rates steady at Lagarde's debut policy meeting
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 8:23 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its rates unchanged on Thursday following new President Christine Lagarde's first monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt.
  • 8:07 AM » High-stakes White House meeting expected Thursday to debate US-China tariffs: sources
    Published Thu, Dec 12 2019 8:07 AM by CNBC
    U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with top trade advisors on Thursday to discuss planned Dec. 15 tariffs on some $160 billion in Chinese goods as markets braced for potential negative impacts.
  • Wed, Dec 11 2019
  • 4:32 PM » Houston Real Estate in November: Sales up 2% YoY, Inventory Up 5%
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 4:32 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the HAR: The Houston Housing Market Chugs Confidently Along Through November November marked the fifth consecutive positive month of home sales with continued low mortgage interest rates helping to keep the Houston real estate market on track for a record 2019. Single-family home sales across greater Houston totaled 6,395 in November , according to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR). That is up 3.6 percent from one year earlier . On a year-to-date basis, home sales are running 4.1 percent ahead of 2018's record volume. ... Sales of all property types increased 2.1 percent in November , totaling 7,577 units. Total dollar volume rose 3.4 percent to $2.2 billion. Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, rose 5.2 percent to 42,139 . Single-family homes months of inventory was flat for the first time in 2019, holding steady at a 3.8 months supply. "The end of the year typically brings a slower pace of home sales, so we welcome another month of gains and attribute it to continued low interest rates in a market that has added more than 80,000 jobs over the past year, according to the Texas Workforce Commission," said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. emphasis added Sales are on pace for a record year in Houston.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:14 PM » U.S. government posts $209 billion deficit in November
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 4:14 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. federal government recorded a $209 billion budget deficit in November as an increase in spending on programs like public health insurance outpaced gains in revenues, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
  • 3:24 PM » Fed Chair Powell says he would want to see persistent rise in inflation before hiking rates again
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 3:24 PM by CNBC
    Fed Chair Powell says he would want to see persistent rise in inflation before hiking rates again<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/fed-chair-powell-says-he-would-want-to-see-persistent-rise-in-inflation-before-hiking-rates-again.html
  • 1:46 PM » U.S. chief executives back revised USMCA trade deal
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 1:46 PM by Reuters
    The Business Roundtable, a trade group of top U.S. chief executives, announced Wednesday its members backed the revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade deal after negotiators brought the hard-won agreement across the finishing line.
  • 11:36 AM » Explainer: What the U.S. Federal Reserve will be watching in 2020
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 11:36 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it wraps up its final policy meeting of the year on Wednesday.
  • 11:36 AM » Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in November, Core PCE below 2%
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 11:36 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.9% annualized rate) in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.1% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (3.1% annualized rate) in November. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for November here . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.9%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.4%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for October and increased 1.6% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.9% annualized and trimmed-mean CPI was at 3.1% annualized. Overall, these measures are mostly above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:53 AM » Dow hit by losses in Boeing, Home Depot; S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 10:53 AM by Reuters
    The blue-chip Dow Jones index came under pressure from losses in Boeing and Home Depot on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq eked out gains as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy statement for clues on the strength of the economy.
  • 9:23 AM » Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 9:23 AM by CNBC
    Steering markets with the language of monetary policy is a tricky business.
  • 8:43 AM » US consumer prices increase more than expected in November
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 8:43 AM by CNBC
    U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in November, which could further support the Federal Reserve's intention not to cut interest rates again in the near term after reducing borrowing costs three times this year.
  • 8:13 AM » After year of living dangerously, Fed likely to signal time to lay low
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 8:13 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its last policy meeting of 2019 on Wednesday, having completed a year-long U-turn that saw it abandon a tightening cycle and lower borrowing costs three times in response to the global trade war.
  • 8:11 AM » Wednesday: FOMC Announcement, CPI
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 8:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    My FOMC Preview . Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index . • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement . No change to policy is expected at this meeting. • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. • At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:11 AM » Jeffrey Gundlach says long-term rates headed higher as recession risks recede
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 8:11 AM by CNBC
    The so-called bond king said the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield should be back at 2%.
  • 8:11 AM » Home Depot forecasts 2020 sales growth below expectations
    Published Wed, Dec 11 2019 8:11 AM by CNBC
    The company said last month that its One Home Depot strategy, which aims to improve the online and brick-and-mortar businesses, was not yet generating as much revenue as it had expected.
  • Tue, Dec 10 2019
  • 4:28 PM » Seattle Real Estate in November: Sales up 21.7% YoY, Inventory down 21.1% YoY
    Published Tue, Dec 10 2019 4:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported "November Surprise" brings "plenty of buyers"; uptick in home sales, prices Brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported "plenty of buyers" competing for sparse inventory during November, which ended with a 7% year-over-year increase in pending sales. The volume of mutually accepted offers rose even more (9.2%) in the tri-county Puget Sound region consisting of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, with Snohomish leading that list with a jump of about 12%. ... Brokers reported 11,366 total active listings at month end, down more than 28 percent from twelve months ago when there were 15,830 active listings. November's selection was down about 21 percent from October. emphasis added The press release is for the Northwest. In King County, sales were up 11.1% year-over-year, and active inventory was down 33.5% year-over-year. In Seattle, sales were up 21.7% year-over-year, and inventory was down 21.1% year-over-year. .  The year-over-year increase in inventory has ended, and the months of supply is still low in Seattle (1.6 months).   In many areas it appears the inventory build that started last year is over .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:49 PM » Powell's 'half-full' U.S. glass sturdy but still at risk for spills as Fed meets
    Published Tue, Dec 10 2019 3:49 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has taken a glass-half-full view of the U.S. economy but the trouble may be that the glass has gotten smaller and has a few cracks.
  • 1:27 PM » Wall Street edges higher on tariff delay hopes
    Published Tue, Dec 10 2019 1:27 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street's indexes edged higher in choppy trading on Tuesday after a report that the United States and China were planning to delay a new round of tariffs set to kick in on Dec. 15.
  • 1:26 PM » Cashin: Traders wary of positive trade reports after getting their 'heart broken time and time again'
    Published Tue, Dec 10 2019 1:26 PM by CNBC
    "The market is somewhat skeptical of where we're going," says UBS' Art Cashin, echoing comments made earlier Tuesday by CNBC's Jim Cramer.
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