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  • Thu, Feb 22 2018
  • 4:22 PM » Global Markets Fret Over Next Leg of the Treasury Selloff
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 4:22 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Global Markets Fret Over Next Leg of the Treasury Selloff Bloomberg While investors focus on soaring yields on U.S. bills and the 10-year note, global markets may be at the mercy of a fresh threat: a rising term premium, or the extra compensation to hold longer-maturity debt over short-term securities. Strengthening ... and more »
  • 4:19 PM » Next up for markets: new Fed chair Powell weighs in on the interest rate debate
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 4:19 PM by CNBC
    Market pros are hoping Fed chair Jerome Powell will step in as referee in the violent tug-of-war between bonds and stocks.
  • 2:58 PM » Michele: Fed is 'Terribly Behind the Curve'
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Michele: Fed is 'Terribly Behind the Curve' Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- A lot of investors hope for something more dovish from Janet Yellen's final Fed minutes, but the Central Bank was right to sound a hawkish note says Bob Michele, Head of Global FICC at JPMorgan Asset Management. He tells Daybreak Europe ... and more »
  • 2:27 PM » Brighter US Growth Outlook Emboldens Fed on Rate-Hike Course
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:27 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Brighter US Growth Outlook Emboldens Fed on Rate-Hike Course Bloomberg U.S. central bankers sent a strong message Wednesday that an expansion with "substantial underlying economic momentum" could sustain additional increases in interest rates this year. Federal Reserve officials "anticipated that the rate of economic ... and more »
  • 2:14 PM » US Stocks Rebound, Dollar Stumbles With Yields: Markets Wrap
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 2:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Stocks Rebound, Dollar Stumbles With Yields: Markets Wrap Bloomberg U.S. stocks rose for the first time in three days even as most global gauges slumped in the wake of Federal Reserve minutes that seemed to boost the prospect of tighter monetary policy. The dollar fell as Treasuries rose. The moves in U.S. assets ... and more »
  • 1:58 PM » Hotels: Solid Start for Occupancy Rate in 2018
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:58 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 17 February The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 11-17 February 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 12-18 February 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: +1.2% to 62.9% • Average daily rate (ADR): +3.2% to US$128.75 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +4.4% to US$80.99 emphasis added Note: Houston is no longer reporting a large year-over-year increase in occupancy, so it appears the impact of the hurricanes is fading. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels). Currently the occupancy rate is second overall, to date (just behind 2006) - and ahead of the record year in 2017 (2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes). Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:48 PM » Draghi Gets ECB Back on Message
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:48 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Gets ECB Back on Message Bloomberg The European Central Bank got its communication largely back under control on the third anniversary of the publication of its policy accounts. Aside from a brief spike, the euro stayed relatively calm after the summary of January's Governing Council ... and more »
  • 1:28 PM » Mortgage Rates Touch 4-Year High as Benchmark Bonds Take a Hit
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 1:28 PM by www.realtor.com
    Rates for home loans have reached a nearly a four-year high as investors abandoned bonds in the face of stronger signs of inflation and central bank tightening, sending yields on debt higher. The post Mortgage Rates Touch 4-Year High as Benchmark Bonds Take a Hit appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:45 PM » Many lenders are loosening requirements for prospective home buyers
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 12:45 PM by Washington Post
    Low down payments and assistance programs make getting mortgage loan approvals easier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 11:59 AM » America Averts Bond Auction Armageddon
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:59 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg America Averts Bond Auction Armageddon Bloomberg Bond traders can toast to successfully handling a massive wave of debt from the U.S. Treasury, at least for now. With the deluge of supply only just beginning, this week's auctions served as a reminder that the U.S. won't have trouble finding buyers ... and more »
  • 11:41 AM » Homeowners are using Airbnb rental income to refinance mortgages
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:41 AM by CNBC
    Homeowners can now use income from Airbnb to qualify for mortgage refinances, thanks to a new pilot program through Fannie Mae.
  • 11:07 AM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Continued Solid Growth" in February
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 11:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Posted Continued Solid Growth The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that the Tenth District manufacturing survey posted continued solid growth, and expectations for future activity increased moderately. "February was another good month for factories in our region," said Wilkerson. "A rising number of firms reported higher input and selling prices." ... The month-over-month composite index was 17 in February , higher than 16 in January and 13 in December (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity grew at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for metals, machinery, and plastics products. Most month-over-month indexes also increased. The shipments, new orders, and employment indexes all rose moderately. The order backlog index fell from 20 to 13, and the new orders for exports index also eased somewhat. The raw materials inventory index decreased from 15 to 8, while the finished goods inventory index was basically unchanged. Most year-over-year factory indexes were higher in February. The composite index rose from 35 to 38, and the production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also increased. The employment index climbed from 31 to 39 , and the capital expenditures index inched slightly higher. The raw materials inventory index fell from 38 to 23, while the finished goods inventory index increased slightly. emphasis added So far all of the regional Fed surveys have been solid in February, and most have been above the January levels (most indexes suggest faster growth in February than in January).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:44 AM » Apartment and Condominium Market Ends Fourth Quarter on a Positive Note
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:44 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) gained seven points to 53 in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) (Figure 1). The MPI measures builder and developer sentiment about current conditions in the apartment and condominium market on a scale of 0 to 100. The index and all of its components are scaled so... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:09 AM » Mortgage Rates Continue Upward Climb
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:09 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Continue Upward Climb
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:00 AM » Dow rises 100 points as 10-year yield eases from 4-year high
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 10:00 AM by CNBC
    U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, trying to snap a two-day losing streak, as interest rates slipped from multiyear highs seen in the previous session.
  • 9:36 AM » First-Time Homebuyers Make Biggest Share of Deals in 17 Years
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 9:36 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg First-Time Homebuyers Make Biggest Share of Deals in 17 Years Bloomberg First-time buyers rushed into the market last year, making 38 percent of all single-family home purchases, the biggest share since 2000, data released Thursday by Genworth Mortgage Insurance show. The 2.07 million new or existing homes bought by first ... and more »
  • 9:03 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 222,000
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 9:03 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 228,500 to 228,250. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal. emphasis added The previous week was revised down. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 226,000. This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest relatively few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:29 AM » What's Missing From the Housing Recovery? New Condos
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:29 AM by www.realtor.com
    With the last financial crisis now firmly in the rearview mirror, builders are putting up sorely needed new homes again. But something's missing: condos. The post What’s Missing From the Housing Recovery? New Condos appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:27 AM » CoreLogic Releases Most Recent HPI Forecast Validation Report
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:27 AM by www.corelogic.com
    Analysis Reveals 12-Month, National Forecast is Within 1.7 Percent of Actual HPI Increase Report Also Analyzes Housing Markets That Are Finalists for Amazon HQ2 CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Validation Report that publicly compares its 12-month CoreLogic HPI Forecasts to the actual CoreLogic HPI Index. The report compares the changes in national and key CBSA-level forecasts made in November 2017 to the actual HPI index released in February of 2018, which includes data through November 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. The report showed: The national forecast prediction of a 4.5 percent increase was within 1.7 percent of the 6.2 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in November 2017. The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area, which at 3.5 percent came within 0.1 percent of the actual HPI increase of 3.6 percent. The widest CBSA gap was in Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA with an 8.7 percent under-estimation of actual increase (5.2 percent forecasted vs. 13.9 percent actual). CoreLogic noted that the variance in this over-valued CBSA was due to a severely constrained supply of homes for sale (1.5 months versus 5.7 months nationally) among other factors. Among the 10-most accurately forecasted MSAs, the average difference was 0.6 percent and the range was between 0.1 percent and 1.2 percent. Of the markets being considered for Amazon’s HQ2, only 6 of the markets have housing market conditions that are normal or undervalued, according to our Market Condition Indicators. “The release of the HPI Forecast Validation Report shows that our...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.corelogic.com
  • 8:27 AM » Where home seller profits are greatest in the U.S.
    Published Thu, Feb 22 2018 8:27 AM by Washington Post
    TOWN SQUARE | The West Coast saw the biggest gains, according to a new study. The Washington area lagged.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Wed, Feb 21 2018
  • 5:26 PM » Here's how traders talked themselves into a sell-off
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 5:26 PM by CNBC
    If the Fed meeting had been held now, with all the information that's come out since January, traders believe it would have been more hawkish
  • 5:24 PM » House Prices and Inventory
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 5:24 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This will be an interesting year for housing. With the tax changes - and rising mortgage rates - a key question is: What will be the impact on housing? The answer is no one knows for sure. For the possible impact of tax changes on housing, see: Question #10 for 2018: Will the New Tax Law impact Home Sales, Inventory, and Price Growth in Certain States? It is difficult to measure demand directly, but inventory is fairly easy to track. Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending , and that boosted price increases.  I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. Click on graph for larger image. This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999). There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph). If months-of-supply is high, price decline. If months-of-supply is low, prices rise. In the existing home sales report released this morning, the NAR reported months-of-supply at 3.4 months in January. Based on the historical relationship, months-of-supply could double before house prices started declining. My current expectation is inventory will increase this year, and house price growth will slow a little.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:34 PM » Fed Officials Say Economy Is Ready for Higher Rates
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 3:34 PM by www.nytimes.com
    A strengthening economy is giving the Fed confidence that interest rates can rise, according to minutes of the most recent policymaking meeting.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 3:28 PM » New HMDA Guide Issued by the FFIEC
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 3:28 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) has just issued an updated version of The Guide to HMDA Reporting: Getting It Right! The Guide reflects the extensive changes to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act rules that were adopted in October 2015 and became effective January 1, 2018. Until now, the most recent version of the... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:10 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2018
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 2:10 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 30-31, 2018
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 2:10 PM » Fed minutes: All signs pointing to more rate hikes ahead
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 2:10 PM by CNBC
    Fed minutes: All signs pointing to more rate hikes ahead|| 105019988
  • 1:58 PM » JP Morgan's ‘branch warfare' to beat up on Wells, support 19% stock surge: Morgan Stanley
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 1:58 PM by CNBC
    J.P. Morgan's expansion into new markets will spark a war with other big banks it doesn't plan on losing, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • 12:31 PM » Lack of Homes on the Market Takes a Toll on First-Time Buyers
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 12:31 PM by www.realtor.com
    First-time buyers were hit hard by the housing shortage and rising prices. They made up a fewer percentage of home sales in January. The post Lack of Homes on the Market Takes a Toll on First-Time Buyers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:28 AM » Homeownership is increasingly for the wealthy
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 11:28 AM by CNBC
    A severe shortage of affordable homes for sale caused a sharp and unexpected drop in January closings.
  • 11:28 AM » AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2018"
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 11:28 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue growth into 2018 2018 started on a strong note for architecture firms, as the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) saw its highest January score since 2007. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI score was 54.7 , up from a score of 52.8 in the previous month. This score reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.1, down from a reading of 62.0 the previous month, while the new design contracts index increased slightly from 53.4 to 53.9. "Healthy conditions continue across all sectors and regions except the Northeast, where firm billings softened for the second consecutive month," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "With strong billings and healthy growth in new projects to start the year, firms remain generally optimistic about business conditions for the next several months." ... • Regional averages: West (56.2), South (55.3), Midwest (54.8), Northeast (47.3) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (56.0), commercial / industrial (53.3), institutional (52.5), mixed practice (50.1) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.7 in January, up from 52.8 in December. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 11 of the last 12 months...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:01 AM » Fed should raise rates gradually this year, Kaplan says
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 11:01 AM by CNBC
    Dallas Fed President Kaplan cited faster economic growth fueled by tax cuts as well as a stronger global economy.
  • 10:46 AM » Market awaits first Fed report after Yellen's hand-off to Powell
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 10:46 AM by CNBC
    First up for the new central bank chief is how the market reacts to details from Janet Yellen's last meeting
  • 10:36 AM » Fed's Harker expects two US rate hikes this year
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 10:36 AM by CNBC
    Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he still thinks just two rate hikes this year is "likely appropriate."
  • 10:24 AM » Yen Surge Ends $353 Billion Insurer's Wait to Buy US Bonds
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 10:24 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Yen Surge Ends $353 Billion Insurer's Wait to Buy US Bonds Bloomberg Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. is boosting purchases of unhedged U.S. debt, encouraged by the yen's strong start to 2018 and rising yields. "The time for unhedged buying has finally come," Shinji Inoue, a manager of investment planning department at ... and more »
  • 9:42 AM » U.S. Treasury recommends preserving Dodd-Frank bank resolution regime
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 9:42 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department has recommended preserving powers created after the 2007-2009 financial crisis that allow regulators to step in and wind down a failing bank.
  • 9:19 AM » US Treasury yields slip ahead of Fed minutes
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 9:19 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were slightly higher on Wednesday.
  • 8:19 AM » After 11th-hour tax reforms passed, advisors rushed to prevent big errors by panicky investors
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 8:19 AM by CNBC
    With just a few days left in 2017 when the GOP tax reform act was passed, advisors had to move quickly to stop clients from making costly mistakes.
  • 8:14 AM » Why this week's Fed minutes could hold the key to the market's next move
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 8:14 AM by CNBC
    It's a big week for the bond market, and the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes could be a particularly pivotal event for Treasurys.
  • 8:14 AM » New budget law includes last-minute tax relief for millions of homeowners
    Published Wed, Feb 21 2018 8:14 AM by Washington Post
    Mortgage-insurance premiums are again deductible, at least for 2017.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Tue, Feb 20 2018
  • 5:32 PM » Q1 GDP Forecasts
    Published Tue, Feb 20 2018 5:32 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    It is early, but here are few Q1 GDP forecast. From Merrill Lynch: The weak retail sales data sliced 0.3pp from our 1Q estimate to 2.0% , while 4Q 2017 dropped to 2.5% from 2.7%. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.2 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 14. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q1 stands at 3.1% . CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be 2% to low 3% range again in Q1.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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