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  • Wed, Jun 28 2017
  • 3:44 PM » Zillow Forecast: "May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue"
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 3:44 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: May Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect the Cooldown to Continue On the heels of a larger-than-expected slowdown in April, Zillow anticipates Case-Shiller data to show a continued cooling in home price growth in May almost across the board, with prices even falling slightly from April in one key index. Annual growth in all three main indices - the 10-city Composite, 20-city Composite and U.S. National Index - is expected to slow to 4.8 percent, 5.5 percent and 5.3 percent year-over-year growth in May, respectively, down from  4.9 percent, 5.7 percent and 5.5 percent in April. The U.S. National Index is expected to grow by a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in May from April, while prices will be unchanged from April on the 20-city Composite Index. Home prices are expected to fall by 0.1 percent from April to May on the smaller 10-city Composite Index (seasonally adjusted). April's slower-than-expected growth caught some analysts off-guard, especially the monthly figures. One potential reason cited for the surprise to the downside could be related to the difficulty in seasonally adjusting a repeat-sales index like Case-Shiller's. Over the long term, Zillow's monthly forecast of Case-Shiller data has proven remarkably accurate, thanks in large part to differences in methodology between Case-Shiller's indices and Zillow's, and the timeliness and granularity of data collected. Zillow's full forecast for May Case-Shiller data is shown below. These forecasts are based on today's April Case-Shiller data release and the  May 2017 Zillow Home Value Index . The May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, July 25. The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:47 PM » Reis: Mall Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 2017
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 2:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 8.1% in Q2 2017, up from 7.9% in Q1, and up from 7.9% in Q2 2016. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.0% in Q2, up from 9.9% in Q1, and up from 9.8% in Q2 2016. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011. Comments from Reis Economist Barbara Byrne Denham: The Retail Vacancy Rate increased 0.1% in the second quarter to 10.0%. Asking rents increased 0.4% in the quarter that saw new stores opening on par with the number that closed. The Mall Vacancy Rate increased 0.2% to 8.1%. Mall Rents also increased 0.4%. Defying the doom and gloom aired in media reports, the retail real estate market posted positive net absorption in the second quarter. The vacancy rate increased a bit due to new construction that was only partially absorbed by new leasing. Still, the vacancy rate increase from 9.9% to 10.0% was smaller than most expected. The increase in the Mall vacancy rate was due to confirmed closings of Macy's stores. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the strip mall vacancy rate starting in 1980 (prior to 2000 the data is annual). The regional mall data starts in 2000. Back in the '80s, there was overbuilding in the mall sector even as the vacancy rate was rising. This was due to the very loose commercial lending that led to the S&L crisis. In the mid-'00s, mall investment picked up as mall builders followed the "roof tops" of the residential boom (more loose lending). This led to the vacancy rate moving higher even before the recession started. Then there was a sharp increase in the vacancy rate during the recession and financial crisis. Recently both the strip mall and regional mall vacancy rates have increased slightly from an already elevated level. Mall vacancy data courtesy of Reis .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:47 PM » Labor Shortage Squeezes Real-Estate Developers
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 2:47 PM by www.realtor.com
    About two-thirds of the contractors who are struggling with labor shortages say it has become a challenge to finish jobs on time. The post Labor Shortage Squeezes Real-Estate Developers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:47 PM » Kumar: Don't Ignore Yellen's Valuation Warning
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 2:47 PM by Bloomberg
    Kumar: Don't Ignore Yellen's Valuation Warning Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- Some valuations of defensive stocks are looking expensive, says Ben Kumar, investment manager at Seven Investment Management. He spoke to Daybreak Europe's Caroline Hepker and Markus Karlsson after Federal Reserve chair Janet ... and more »
  • 11:15 AM » Draghi Tried to Be Cautious But Spooked the Market Anyway - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 11:15 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Tried to Be Cautious But Spooked the Market Anyway Bloomberg Mario Draghi just got evidence that his call for "prudence" in withdrawing European Central Bank stimulus applies to his words too. The euro and bond yields surged on Tuesday after the ECB president said the reflation of the euro-area economy creates ... and more »
  • 10:05 AM » Pending home sales tumble as supply crisis hits sales
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 10:05 AM by CNBC
    The pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors dropped 0.8 percent month-to-month and is now 1.7 percent lower than May 2016.
  • 9:27 AM » 'What's the rush' on interest rate hikes, asks Fed's Kashkari
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 9:27 AM by CNBC
    With inflation low and wages showing little sign of an upward surge, the Federal Reserve should not be raising interest rates, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday.
  • 8:45 AM » Trulia: Falling Inventory Has Led To Hurried Homebuying
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 8:45 AM by info.trulia.com
    Falling Inventory is Pushing Homes off the Market at Record Pace
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: info.trulia.com
  • 8:44 AM » One in Three Recent Homebuyers Made an Offer Sight-Unseen—Up from Nearly One in Five a Year Ago
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 8:44 AM by www.redfin.com
    In May 2017, Redfin commissioned a survey of 3,350 U.S. residents in 11 metropolitan areas who in the past year bought or sold a home, attempted to do so or plan to do so soon. The post One in Three Recent Homebuyers Made an Offer Sight-Unseen-Up from Nearly One in Five a Year Ago appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:43 AM » The Wall Street Journal: Now it's easier to buy a home even if you have student loans
    Published Wed, Jun 28 2017 8:43 AM by Market Watch
    Fannie Mae and several states offer aid for young people who want to be homeowners.
  • Tue, Jun 27 2017
  • 2:54 PM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 2:54 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.5% year-over-year in April It has been more than ten years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 2.4% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 13.9% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now just over 5%. In April, the index was up 5.5% YoY. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $278,000 today adjusted for inflation (39%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through April) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is at a new peak, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to October 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to December 2005. Real House Prices The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to June 2004 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2004, and the CoreLogic index back to April 2004. In real terms, house prices are back to early 2004 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:02 PM » Yellen: Banks 'very much stronger'; another financial crisis not likely 'in our lifetime'
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 2:02 PM by CNBC
    Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Tuesday that banks are "very much stronger" judging by how major institutions did in the recent stress tests.
  • 1:14 PM » Watch Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Lord Nicholas Stern discuss world economic issues
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 1:14 PM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will sit down in London with Lord Nicholas Stern, president of the British Academy, to discuss global economic issues.
  • 1:14 PM » Will the Hispanic Homeownership Gap Persist?
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 1:14 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Will the Hispanic Homeownership Gap Persist?
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:17 PM » Yields rise with European debt after upbeat Draghi comments
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 12:17 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK, June 27 U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, in sympathy with European government debt weakness, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi fueled expectations that the ECB is closer to announcing a reduction of stimulus.
  • 12:16 PM » Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q2 to 4.4%
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 12:16 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.4% in Q2 2017, up from 4.3% in Q1, and up from 4.2% in Q2 2016.  This is the highest vacancy rate since Q3 2013 (although the increase has been small).  The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009. From Reis: Shaking off a sluggish first quarter, the apartment market showed marked improvement in the second quarter as all but two of 79 metros saw effective rents increase or stay flat in the quarter. The average effective rent grew 1.1% in the quarter and 3.0% over the year. The vacancy rate increased from 4.3% to 4.4% Vacancy increased in 27 Metros, but the increase exceeded 0.2% in only eight metros. The number of new completions was lower than had been expected as was net absorption. The growth in effective rents suggests that landlords' offers of free rent were less aggressive as the apartment market continued to benefit from stronger housing prices keeping more potential home buyers in rentals. Total inventory is expected to increase significantly in 2017; however, construction in the second quarter was lower than expected in a quarter that tends to see the highest activity . New construction of 36,477 units was the lowest quarterly addition in more than two years. With less new supply coming online, landlords were able to curb their concessions. At 4.4%, the national vacancy rate increased 10 basis points from 4.3% in the first quarter . One year ago, the vacancy rate was 4.2%. Occupancy growth, or net absorption, while low at 27,818 units, fell just shy of new supply pushing the vacancy rate up in the quarter. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Reis is just for large cities. The vacancy rate had been mostly moving sideways for the last few years.  However it appears the vacancy rate has bottomed and is starting to increase. ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:03 AM » A Mystery Fed Candidate Won a Seat at the FOMC Table, Then Walked Away
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 11:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg A Mystery Fed Candidate Won a Seat at the FOMC Table, Then Walked Away Bloomberg Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, leaves after a news conference in Washington on June 14, 2017. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg. Who got an invitation from Janet Yellen to sit at the most exclusive economic-policy table in the ... and more »
  • 11:03 AM » Consumer confidence gains in June, topping estimates
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 11:03 AM by CNBC
    The Consumer Confidence Index rose in June to 118.9, despite expectations for it to drop, The Conference Board announced Tuesday.
  • 10:01 AM » Wells Fargo to sell commercial insurance business
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 10:01 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co said on Tuesday it agreed to sell its commercial insurance business to private insurer USI Insurance Services, as the third-largest U.S. bank plans to focus on core banking products and services.
  • 8:44 AM » Real Estate Ponzi Scheme Unearthing Leads to Guilty Plea
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 8:44 AM by www.builderonline.com
    The former owner of a "We Buy Ugly Houses" franchise admitted in federal court recently that she mislead investors, misused investors' money, forged investors' signatures on deeds, and ran what amounted to a real estate ponzi scheme.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:44 AM » Here's how to invest in real estate â€" think Warren Buffett-style, not shopping malls
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 8:44 AM by Market Watch
    REITs can yield big profits, but only if you know which ones to buy, says our call of the day.
  • 8:43 AM » Americans' Confidence in Economy Remains Barely Positive
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 8:43 AM by www.gallup.com
    Americans' views of the economy were unchanged last week, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index remaining slightly positive.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.gallup.com
  • 8:43 AM » Draghi speaks of 'strengthening and broadening recovery' in euro zone, but says stimulus must remain
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 8:43 AM by CNBC
    President Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank said Tuesday that the central bank will have to be prudent to gradually adjust its monetary stimulus to the economic recovery.
  • 8:41 AM » A Republican and a Democrat team up to split Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
    Published Tue, Jun 27 2017 8:41 AM by CNBC
    Senators Bob Corker and Mark Warner are considering legislation that would break up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to Bloomberg.
  • Mon, Jun 26 2017
  • 4:57 PM » House member launches fintech lending investigation
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 4:57 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Congressman Emanuel Cleaver, II announced last week that he had launched an investigation into small business financial technology (fintech) lending by sending a letter to the CEOs of several fintech small business lenders. The letter includes 10 questions and asks for responses to be provided by no later than August 10, 2017. In the letter,... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 4:07 PM » Here's the worrisome 'conundrum' taking place in the bond market right now
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 4:07 PM by CNBC
    Long-term Treasury bond yields fell Monday, with the 30-year bond yield hitting 2.682 percent its lowest level since Nov. 9.
  • 4:04 PM » Trade associations voice support for commission to run CFPB
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 4:04 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    A group of 22 trade associations sent a letter last week to the Chairmen and Ranking Members of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees expressing their “strong support” for the creation of a five-member bipartisan commission to lead the CFPB. The trade associations include the American Bankers Association, American Financial Services Association, Consumer Bankers Association,... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:12 PM » HUD and Census Bureau Report New Residential Sales in May 2017
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 12:12 PM by HUD
    WASHINGTON - The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau today jointly announced the following new residential sales statistics for May 2017.
  • 11:26 AM » Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May, Lowest since May 2008
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 11:26 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was at 0.87%, down from 0.92% in April.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.11% in May 2016. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since May 2008. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image Although the rate is still declining, the rate of decline has slowed. Maybe the rate will decline another 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points or so to a cycle bottom, but this is pretty close to normal. Note: Fannie Mae will report for May soon.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:53 AM » Art Cashin warns about a 'wild card' remark on a 2008 financial crisis repeat
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 10:53 AM by CNBC
    "I would prefer not to see a Lehman-like moment again," Art Cashin says.
  • 10:16 AM » 71 Percent of Homeowners Believe It's a Good Time to Sell; Economic and Financial Confidence Dips: Realtors® HOME Survey
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 10:16 AM by Google News
    WASHINGTON (June 26, 2017) — Existing housing inventory has declined year over year each month for two straight years, but new consumer findings from the National Association of Realtors® offer hope that the growing number of homeowners who think now is a good time to sell will eventually lead to more listings. That's according to NAR's quarterly Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey 1 , which also found that fewer renters think it... Read More
  • 10:00 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May"
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 10:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in May Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to -0.26 in May from +0.57 in April . Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from April, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in May. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, declined to +0.04 in May from +0.21 in April. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was close to the historical trend in May (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:57 AM » U.S. core capital goods orders, shipments slip in May
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 8:57 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in May and shipments also declined, suggesting a loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector halfway through the second quarter.
  • 8:57 AM » As Mortgage Demand Cools and Competition Heats Up, More ...
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 8:57 AM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: June 26, 2017. As Mortgage Demand Cools and Competition Heats Up, More Lenders Are Planning ...
  • 8:35 AM » Financial conditions another reason to tighten Fed policy: NY Fed's Dudley
    Published Mon, Jun 26 2017 8:35 AM by CNBC
    The recent narrowing of credit spreads, record stock prices, and falling bond yields could encourage the Federal Reserve to continue tightening U.S. policy.
  • Fri, Jun 23 2017
  • 5:24 PM » Marketing lessons from $1b Clooney tequila and fallen fintech lender Sindeo
    Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 5:24 PM by The Basis Point
    Even if you haven't heard of Sindeo, when a fintech brand like this falls, you better hear the sound because there are lessons here for all of us. The post Marketing lessons from $1b Clooney tequila and fallen fintech lender Sindeo appeared first on The Basis Point .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
  • 5:16 PM » Stocks Are Ignoring Oil's Bear Market
    Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 5:16 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Stocks Are Ignoring Oil's Bear Market Bloomberg The bear market in crude in many ways resembles its more severe predecessors from 2014 and 2016: oil prices plummeting, non-U.S. producers floundering to keep supply at bay and concerns swirling around the impact of energy companies on high-yield ... and more »
  • 4:04 PM » Here's how much housing prices have skyrocketed over the last 50 years
    Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 4:04 PM by CNBC
    In 1940, the median home price in the U.S. was less than $3,000.
  • 4:04 PM » How to Get a Mortgage Without a Full-Time, Permanent Job
    Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 4:04 PM by www.redfin.com
    Obtaining a mortgage as a gig economy worker can be challenging. Do your homework and start preparing your finances and paperwork well in advance. The post How to Get a Mortgage Without a Full-Time, Permanent Job appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 1:35 PM » Fungal toxins in the home can easily become airborne and be inhaled, says study
    Published Fri, Jun 23 2017 1:35 PM by CNBC
    Toxins from household fungi can easily become airborne and cause health problems, a new study has found.
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