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  • Thu, Jun 30 2016
  • 2:20 PM » Most mortgages sold by the government remain delinquent, FHFA says
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 2:20 PM by Market Watch
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's regulator says few of the delinquent mortgages it's sold to investors have reportable outcomes.
  • 12:33 PM » CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in May
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 12:33 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow.  From CoStar: Composite Price Indices Resume Solid Growth Boosted By Strong Net Absorption PRICE INDICES RESUMED SOLID GROWTH IN MAY. Both of CCRSI's two major composite price indices advanced by more than 1% in the month of May 2016, erasing earlier-year declines. After the two major indices backtracked in the first quarter of 2016 amid global economic uncertainty and a seasonal slowdown in investment activity, price growth within the commercial real estate sector during May 2016 returned to the average monthly pace set in the previous several years. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index rose 1.1% and the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index advanced 1.2% in May 2016, placing the value-weighted index at its highest level this cycle . HEALTHY CRE SPACE ABSORPTION CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG PRICE GAINS. Demonstrating the overall demand for CRE space, net absorption across the three major property types-office, retail and industrial-is projected to total 688.5 million square feet for the 12-month period ending in June 2016, a 9.5% increase from the same period ending in June 2015. ... emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes. The value-weighted index increased 1.2% in May and is up 2.2% year-over-year. The equal-weighted index increased 1.1% in May and is up 6.7% year-over-year. Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:13 PM » How do people really feel about the economy?
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 12:13 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Political outsiders have had quite a good year in the United States (and elsewhere), and many pundits have attributed their success to voters’ profound dissatisfaction with the economy. Certainly there is plenty to be dissatisfied about, including growing inequality of income and wealth and stagnation in real wages. But there are positives as well, including an improving labor market, low inflation, and low gasoline prices. How do people really feel about the U.S. economy? This post will not tackle the substance of Americans’ worries about the economy but instead highlights a puzzle arising from pollsters’ efforts to quantify those worries. I’ll show that, when Americans are asked specifically about the economy, in an apolitical context, they are for the most part not nearly as pessimistic as the conventional wisdom would have it. Instead, they answer more or less as they have done in the past at a similar stage of the business cycle. But, at the same time, when asked more generally about the way things are going in the United States, or about whether the country is going in the right direction, a strong majority gives downbeat answers, to an extent that is quite different from how they have responded in the past. Understanding the divergence between the replies to these two types of surveys is important, and I end the post with a few thoughts on possible reasons. Surveys of consumer “sentiment” or “confidence,” such as those that have been conducted for many years by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board , aim to measure how people feel about their own finances and the state of the economy in general, without trying to elicit households’ political leanings or voting intentions. These surveys have proved useful in forecasting consumer spending and other aspects of household economic behavior, and they are accordingly closely followed by economists. Interestingly, in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 12:12 PM » Begging For Yield in U.S. Spurs Biggest Bond Gains Since 2009
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 12:12 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Begging For Yield in U.S. Spurs Biggest Bond Gains Since 2009 Bloomberg U.S. corporate borrowers have rarely had it so good. Investors from Paris to Milan are looking for a haven after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Central Bankers in Frankfurt and Tokyo have created $12 trillion of negative-yielding bonds ... and more »
  • 11:53 AM » This private equity giant wants to give landlords millions â€" B2R Mortgage (Blackstone)
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 11:53 AM by CNBC
    B2R, a mortgage company owned by Blackstone Group, just began offering mortgages for investors that require absolutely nothing of the borrower.
  • 10:25 AM » Mortgage Rates Touch New 2016 Lows
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 10:25 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Touch New 2016 Lows
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:25 AM » U.S. Consumer Comfort Eased Last Week From Three-Month High
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 10:25 AM by Bloomberg
    U.S. Consumer Comfort Eased Last Week From Three-Month High Bloomberg Consumer comfort eased last week from a three-month high as Americans became a bit less upbeat about their finances, according to the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index released Thursday. and more »
  • 9:45 AM » U.S. jobless claims rise last week, trend still favorable
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 9:45 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week, but remained below a level associated with a healthy labor market.
  • 8:29 AM » Stock futures up for third day as Brexit nerves settle
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 8:29 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose for the third straight day as investors looked beyond Brexit and focused on impending economic data and quarterly earnings.
  • 8:26 AM » Prime Real Estate: Amazon Has Swallowed Downtown Seattle
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 8:26 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Prime Real Estate: Amazon Has Swallowed Downtown Seattle Bloomberg Having colonized the South Lake Union neighborhood, Seattle's largest private employer is building three giant spheres filled with trees-the better to connect employees with nature. June 29, 2016. Spencer Soper spencersoper · Peter Robison ...
  • 8:26 AM » Are American Banks Sturdy Enough to Weather Another Financial Crisis?
    Published Thu, Jun 30 2016 8:26 AM by The Atlantic
    Last week, it was announced that the results of the first round of the Federal Reserve's annual "stress tests"-which evaluate whether U.S. banks have enough capital to withstand a financial crisis-were positive: All 33 U.S. banks passed the "warm up" stress tests , signaling that they could, hypothetically, withstand an estimated $385 billion in losses should a recession occur. But the second round of results-released just after markets closed on Wednesday-were less promising. The second part of the stress tests are closely watched by banks and investors, since passing or failing dictates whether a particular bank is allowed to increase the amount of money it returns to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks. This year, the Fed failed two banks: the Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation and Santander Holdings USA. Both are subsidiaries of European banks and both failed last year as well . This marks the third consecutive year Santander has failed. The annual Fed stress tests were created after the financial crisis as a means of evaluating whether banks have enough of a financial cushion to absorb losses if a crisis was to occur. The aim is to prevent bank failures in the future. Under Dodd-Frank reforms, banks with more than $50 billion in assets are required to submit to the Fed detailed plans for dealing with various financial risks. After a careful evaluation, regulators decide whether a bank has passed or failed. Morgan Stanley passed the test, but narrowly. The American bank is required to re-submit their plan by the end of the year "to address certain weaknesses in its capital planning processes," in the words of the Fed. Bank of America and Citigroup, two banks that have struggled with passing the stress tests in the past, both passed. According to the Fed, U.S. banks have doubled their capital and added more than $700 billion of equity capital since 2009. The results of the stress tests have been made public since...
  • Wed, Jun 29 2016
  • 4:09 PM » Markets are not over Brexit
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 4:09 PM by CNBC
    Stocks are sailing higher as Brexit worries fade, but the global bond market is signaling that there's plenty to fear.
  • 1:15 PM » Negative-yield bonds at $11.7 trillion
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 1:15 PM by CNBC
    The amount has jumped to $11.7 trillion, a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May, according to Fitch Ratings.
  • 12:55 PM » Freddie Mac Announces First Structured Sale of Seasoned Loans
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 12:55 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Announces First Structured Sale of Seasoned Loans
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:08 AM » There are now $11.7 trillion worth of bonds with negative yields
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 11:08 AM by CNBC
    The amount has jumped to $11.7 trillion, a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May, according to Fitch Ratings.
  • 10:16 AM » NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 3.7% in May, down 0.2% year-over-year
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 10:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Skid in May After steadily increasing for three straight months, pending home sales letup in May and declined year-over-year for the first time in almost two years, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions experienced a cutback in contract activity last month. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slid 3.7 percent to 110.8 in May from a downwardly revised 115.0 in April and is now slightly lower (0.2 percent) than May 2015 (111.0). With last month's decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year-over-year for the first time since August 2014. ... The PHSI in the Northeast dropped 5.3 percent to 93.0 in May, and is now unchanged from a year ago. In the Midwest the index slipped 4.2 percent to 108.0 in May, and is now 1.8 percent below May 2015. Pending home sales in the South declined 3.1 percent to an index of 126.6 in May but are still 0.6 percent higher than last May. The index in the West decreased 3.4 percent in May to 102.6, and is now 0.1 percent below a year ago.. emphasis added This was below expectations of a 1.0% decrease for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:02 AM » 99 of Top 100 Housing Metros Improve Year Over Year
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 10:02 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    99 of Top 100 Housing Metros Improve Year Over Year
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:02 AM » Pending home sales down 3.7%, marking first annual drop in two years
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 10:02 AM by CNBC
    The final push of the spring housing season turned out weaker than expected. Signed contracts to buy existing homes fell 3.7 percent in May.
  • 10:01 AM » US Consumer Spending Climbs 0.4% in May
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 10:01 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Consumer Spending Climbs 0.4% in May Bloomberg Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial, discusses the importance of consumer spending in the U.S. economy and market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in reaction to Brexit. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 8:29 AM » When The Going Gets Hot, Construction Workers Get Nocturnal
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 8:29 AM by www.npr.org
    Arizona is getting so hot during the summer days, one construction site in Phoenix has to redefine "nightlife" and pour concrete at 1 a.m.
  • 8:25 AM » Treasuries' Best 6 Months Since '11 May Turn to Losses
    Published Wed, Jun 29 2016 8:25 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasuries' Best 6 Months Since '11 May Turn to Losses Bloomberg Treasuries headed for their biggest back-to-back quarterly advance in almost five years. Economists say the gains may turn into losses. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index has surged 5.5 percent since the end of 2015, the most since the third and ... and more »
  • Tue, Jun 28 2016
  • 4:42 PM » Housing Share of GDP Expands
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 4:42 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    With the release of the final estimates of first quarter 2016 GDP growth (revised up two-tenths to a 1.1% growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) ticked up slightly to 15.4%. The home building and remodeling component - residential fixed investment - as a share of GDP expanded to 3.4%. Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 4:39 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency rate declined in May
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 4:39 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in May to 1.38%, down from 1.40% in April. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.70% in May 2015. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  This is the lowest rate since June 2008. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image Although the rate is generally declining, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%.  The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has fallen 0.32 percentage points over the last year, and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until the second half of 2017. .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:39 PM » Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for May 2016
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 4:39 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for May 2016
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 3:02 PM » Fed paralysis means 'purgatory' for big banks
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 3:02 PM by CNBC
    The decreasing likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year means trouble for Wall Street.
  • 2:48 PM » The Fed: Brexit won't cause financial crisis, Bernanke says
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 2:48 PM by Market Watch
    Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday he didn't think Brexit would lead to a financial crisis.
  • 11:48 AM » Draghi Shuns Brexit Debate in Call for Global Policy Alignment - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 11:48 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Shuns Brexit Debate in Call for Global Policy Alignment Bloomberg Mario Draghi took an unusual tack among the world's major policy makers -- giving a speech that had no explicit reference to the U.K.'s decision to quit the European Union. While investors are keen to hear what the European Central Bank president is ... and more »
  • 10:11 AM » Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in April
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 10:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Home Prices Continue Gains in April According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain in April , down from 5.1% the previous month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.7% annual increase, down from 4.8% in March. The 20-City Composite reported a yearover-year gain of 5.4%, down from 5.5% from the prior month. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.0% in April. The 10-City Composite recorded a 1.0% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 1.1% increase in April. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.1% month-overmonth increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.3% increase, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase. After seasonal adjustment, 15 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and three cities experienced negative monthly prices changes. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index is off 10.6% from the peak, and up 0.3% in April (SA). The Composite 20 index is off 9.0% from the peak, and up 0.5% (SA) in April. The National index is off 3.0% from the peak, and up 0.1% (SA) in April.  The National index is up 31.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA). The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:11 AM » Consumer confidence pops in June
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 10:11 AM by CNBC
    Consumers were feeling more optimistic than expected in June, according to a survey released Tuesday.
  • 10:11 AM » CNBC explains: Brexit and 'Article 50'
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 10:11 AM by CNBC
    The Brits cast their votes in favor of seceding the European Union, but they haven't left the economic bloc yet.
  • 10:10 AM » Treasuries on Brink of History as Guggenheim Says Rally Not Over
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 10:10 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasuries on Brink of History as Guggenheim Says Rally Not Over Bloomberg The $13.4 trillion U.S. government bond market is on the brink of history. Ten-year Treasury yields plunged for a second day Monday, closing just 0.06 percentage point from their all-time low of 1.379 percent. Even with bonds off to their best start to ...
  • 10:09 AM » Are reverse mortgages a very bad move or a great idea?
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 10:09 AM by CNBC
    With strapped baby boomers warming to reverse mortgages, federal regulators are debuting new rules that shore up the government-backed loan program.
  • 8:26 AM » Market uncertainty rules after Brexit vote, analysts say
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 8:26 AM by CNBC
    Global markets found footing on Tuesday, but more headwinds may be on the horizon following the Brexit vote, analysts tell CNBC.
  • 8:20 AM » Would a Work-Free World Be So Bad?
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 8:20 AM by The Atlantic
    People have speculated for centuries about a future without work, and today is no different, with academics, writers, and activists once again warning that technology is replacing human workers. Some imagine that the coming work-free world will be defined by inequality: A few wealthy people will own all the capital, and the masses will struggle in an impoverished wasteland. A different, less paranoid, and not mutually exclusive prediction holds that the future will be a wasteland of a different sort, one characterized by purposelessness: Without jobs to give their lives meaning, people will simply become lazy and depressed. Indeed, today's unemployed don't seem to be having a great time. One Gallup poll found that 20 percent of Americans who have been unemployed for at least a year report having depression, double the rate for working Americans. Also, some research suggests that the explanation for rising rates of mortality, mental-health problems, and addiction among poorly-educated, middle-aged people is a shortage of well-paid jobs. Another study shows that people are often happier at work than in their free time . Perhaps this is why many worry about the agonizing dullness of a jobless future. But it doesn't necessarily follow from findings like these that a world without work would be filled with malaise. Such visions are based on the downsides of being unemployed in a society built on the concept of employment. In the absence of work, a society designed with other ends in mind could yield strikingly different circumstances for the future of labor and leisure. Today, the virtue of work may be a bit overblown. "Many jobs are boring, degrading, unhealthy, and a squandering of human potential," says John Danaher, a lecturer at the National University of Ireland in Galway who has written about a world without work. "Global surveys find that the vast majority of people are unhappy at work." These days, because leisure time is relatively...
  • 8:19 AM » 55+ Renters: A Tale of Growing Demand
    Published Tue, Jun 28 2016 8:19 AM by Freddie Mac
    By David Brickman, EVP Multifamily Business Much of the conversation regarding affordable rental housing tends to focus on younger households – in particular, Millennials. However recent findings from our first Freddie Mac 55+ Survey suggest that shifting housing choices by the Baby Boomers and those older may significantly exacerbate the already acute shortage of affordable housing in the years to come. Read More
  • Mon, Jun 27 2016
  • 4:06 PM » Tiny Homes Spark a Big Controversy
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 4:06 PM by www.realtor.com
    Colorado Springs has been dubbed the tiny housing capital-a designation that many in the tiny-home movement adamantly disagree with. The post Tiny Homes Spark a Big Controversy appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:52 PM » Downgraded: U.K. loses perfect AAA credit rating
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 2:52 PM by CNN
    Brexit just cost the U.K. its perfect AAA credit rating.
  • 2:03 PM » Brexit and U.S. Housing: Possible Impacts
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 2:03 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most important economic news of last week concerned the United Kingdom referendum, which supported a departure of the U.K. from the European Union (Brexit). This political action has caused stock market declines and a fair amount of concern about the health of the global economy. How does housing and home building fit into this set of impacts? I think it... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:01 PM » Brexit and the lessons of history
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 2:01 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    “The Europe we have today is the worst possible Europe, apart from all the other Europes that have been tried from time to time.” - Historian Timothy Garton Ash paraphrasing Winston Churchill With almost clockwork precision, Europe has torn itself apart in violent, usually barbaric paroxysms of self-destruction every 30-50 years for at least the past 1000 years.  The last such example of self-annihilation was the Second World War, from 1939-1945.  Historians debate whether it was the worst of all these episodes, but we do know that over 50 million people died and, as its name implies, it affected the world. As the Second World War was ending, the leaders of the dominant world powers at the time, as well as the leaders of some of the core states of Western Europe, sought to reverse the tide of history which, after innumerable examples lasting over hundreds of years, they finally realized represented an untenable “normal.”  They sought to create a “new normal.”  Within Europe, the three small countries who had the longest history of working closely together, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – Benelux – were the core of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).  Under the leadership of a few visionary Europeans, notably the Luxembourg-born, Christian Democratic French statesman Robert Schuman, the French political economist Jean Monnet, Germany’s first post WWII Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, the Italian Prime Minister who survived the first eight post-WWII Italian governments, Alcide de Gasperi, and arguably Belgium’s most influential statesman ever, Paul-Henri Spaak, the ECSC evolved in to the European Common Market (EEC) which then grew in to the 27-member European Union and the Euro common currency zone.  On a global scale, there was a similar attempt to create organizations that would prevent the horrors and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 12:23 PM » European banks rocked again as investors digest Brexit vote
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 12:23 PM by CNBC
    Banks in Europe saw their stocks fall sharply for a second straight session as the United Kingdom's historic vote last week weighed.
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