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  • Fri, May 27 2016
  • 1:53 PM » How America Lost Its Mojo (Is It Housing?!)
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 1:53 PM by The Atlantic
    American restlessness is written into the national DNA. In the 19th century, families moved toward opportunity, whether it came in the form of open, fertile fields or smoky urban factories. Americans didn't just see their westward migration as a trivial preference for sun and space. They saw it as the important work of a nation, a Manifest Destiny. But if Horace Greeley were alive today , his advice might be something more like, "Move back home, young man." Americans today are strangely averse to change. They are less likely to switch jobs, or move between states, or create new companies than they were 30 years ago. In economist-speak , "the U.S. labor market has experienced marked declines in fluidity along a variety of dimensions." In English: America has lost its mojo. Manifest Destiny has yielded to manifest dormancy. Why are Americans stuck in place-and why are these stuck Americans less likely than their forebears to switch jobs and start companies? These are huge questions, and they don't necessarily have to be connected. There could be one explanation for why Americans stopped moving and another for why Americans are starting fewer firms. But in fact the reasons are intertwined. They are a driving force behind regional inequality, and the phenomenon stems from a significant root cause: the cost of having a place to live in America's most productive cities. To unravel the mystery of declining U.S. dynamism-fewer moves, fewer quits, fewer startups-start with most well-documented mystery: why Americans stopped migrating. Between the 1970s and 2010, the rate of Americans moving between states fell by more than half-from 3.5 percent per year to 1.4 percent. "It's a puzzle and it's the one I wish politicians and policy makers were more concerned about," Betsey Stevenson, a former member of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, told The New York Times this week. Fewer Americans moving toward the best jobs and starting...
  • 1:49 PM » Regional Home Price Declines Not Uncommon in the Past
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 1:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Sustained Regional Home Price Declines Were Not That Uncommon from the Mid-80's to the Mid-90's During any 5-year period that including any part the late 70's there were virtually no areas that experienced a drop in home prices. That isn't too surprising given the high inflation rate/nominal income growth rate of the period. What was more surprising is that for any 5-year periods ending from early 2000 (which basically means the latter half of the 1990's) to the fall of 2006 there were no MSA which experienced a drop in home prices, since those periods were characterized by relative modest inflation and nominal income growth. It is worth noting that most "models" of mortgage defaults used in the early and mid 2000's were based on loans originated from 1995/6 or later, as it was around then that the use of credit scores become widespread. As such, these "models" used a period when there were hardly any parts of the country where home prices had declined. ...  During this period actual mortgage losses were incredibly low, models predicted low losses going forward, and in hindsight it's not surprising that mortgage lending criteria eased considerably over the period, moving from "historically very easy" in 2000-2001 to "ridiculously easy" in the 2003-2006" period. Click on graph for larger image. Chart uses Freddie Mac's Home Price Index for 381 MSAs. The chart shows the number of MSA HPIs that declined over a rolling 5-year (60 month) period. These models based on "good times" proved to be useless in predicting how mortgages performed during "bad times," which was "a tragedy" that was predicted by the band Poison in its most excellent song "Good Times, Bad Times, How Life Loves a Tragedy." 1 1 See, e.g., "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," An, Deng, Rosenblatt, and Yen, September 2010...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:46 PM » Yellen: Rate hike probably appropriate in the coming months
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 1:46 PM by CNBC
    Fed Chair Janet Yellen answered questions as markets looked for further hints of when the central bank will hike interest rates.
  • 11:26 AM » Consumer sentiment inches up in May
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 11:26 AM by CNBC
    Consumers were feeling more optimistic in May - but attitudes still weren't as sunny as expected, according to data released Friday.
  • 11:21 AM » Yellen may help pave way for higher rates on Friday
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 11:21 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has struck a largely cautious tone since engineering the U.S. central bank's rate hike last December, saying she was not convinced inflation had taken firm enough hold to justify a second move and that she was worried a weak global economy put the United States at some risk.
  • 9:53 AM » Why GDP Numbers May Put Off June Fed Rate Hike
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 9:53 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why GDP Numbers May Put Off June Fed Rate Hike Bloomberg The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than previously estimated, reflecting less damage from trade and inventories. Bloomberg Intelligence's Carl Riccadonna reports on "Bloomberg ‹GO›." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 8:43 AM » Economic growth revised up to just 0.8 percent
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 8:43 AM by CNBC
    U.S. economic growth slowed in the first quarter although not as sharply as initially thought, helped by spending on home building.
  • 8:40 AM » The Dangers of Yellen Speaking Right Before Memorial Day
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 8:40 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The Dangers of Yellen Speaking Right Before Memorial Day Bloomberg Michael Krautzberger, head of European Fixed Income at BlackRock, discusses monetary policy from both the ECB and the Fed, and if comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen right before Memorial Day poses a problem. He speaks with Guy Johnson and ...
  • 8:06 AM » Ahead of Yellen and GDP data, US futures higher
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. stock futures were higher this morning, as U.S. oil prices continued to retreat from the $50 per barrel level.
  • 8:06 AM » With housing heating up, here's how to play the homebuilders
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 8:06 AM by CNBC
    Home sales surged in April, leading traders to look to housing stocks as a new investment.
  • 8:06 AM » Gundlach Says Yellen Speech to Be Dovish as Treasury Bid Soars
    Published Fri, May 27 2016 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Gundlach Says Yellen Speech to Be Dovish as Treasury Bid Soars Bloomberg Jeffrey Gundlach said he expects a dovish speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Friday. The chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles said the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates in June unless traders in the futures ... and more »
  • Thu, May 26 2016
  • 5:16 PM » Looking to Buy? Do Your Homework and Get in Line
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 5:16 PM by www.realtor.com
    The economy, lower mortgage rates, and demographics are driving the highest level of purchases since spring 2007, but would-be buyers face hurdles. The post Looking to Buy? Do Your Homework and Get in Line appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 5:15 PM » Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for April 2016
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 5:15 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for April 2016
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 3:09 PM » Mortgage Rates Tick Up on Fed News
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 3:09 PM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Tick Up on Fed News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 3:09 PM » U.S. business spending mired in weakness, but economy picking up
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 3:09 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business spending intentions weakened in April for a third straight month amid soft demand for machinery, but a surge in contracts to purchase previously owned homes to a 10-year high supported views economic growth was gaining speed.
  • 12:44 PM » Powell: Hike may come 'fairly soon'
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 12:44 PM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said Friday an interest rate hike could be appropriate fairly soon.
  • 10:48 AM » Apartment and Condominium Market Remains Steady in the First Quarter
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 10:48 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The National Association of Home Builder's Multifamily Production Index (MPI) increased one point to 53 in the first quarter of 2016 (Exhibit 1). This quarter marks the 17th consecutive quarter in which the index has been above its breakeven point of 50, which means that more builders and developers report that current conditions in the apartment and the condominium market... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:03 AM » Pending home sales up 5.1 pct, highest level in a decade
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 10:03 AM by CNBC
    A strong showing of homebuyers in the South and West boosted overall U.S. home sales in April.
  • 9:02 AM » U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected last week
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 9:02 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, moving back to near cycle lows as the labor markets
  • 9:02 AM » US durable goods surge on transportation, but business spending weak
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 9:02 AM by CNBC
    Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in April on strong demand for transportation equipment.
  • 8:08 AM » Fed's Bullard: tight U.S. labor market may put upward pressure on inflation
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 8:08 AM by Reuters
    SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. labor markets are relatively tight and may put upward pressure on inflation, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday.
  • 8:08 AM » New York financial regulator gearing up to probe online lenders - source
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 8:08 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - New York state's financial regulator, which recently launched a probe into LendingClub Corp, is preparing to look into the activities at other online lenders and whether they should be licensed in New York, a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.
  • 8:05 AM » Wells Fargo launches 3% down payment mortgage
    Published Thu, May 26 2016 8:05 AM by CNBC
    The nation's largest lender, Wells Fargo, is offering a new mortgage with a 3 percent down payment requirement. What gives?
  • Wed, May 25 2016
  • 4:21 PM » Wells Fargo Pays $70 Million for Failures in Foreclosure Accord
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 4:21 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wells Fargo Pays $70 Million for Failures in Foreclosure Accord Bloomberg Wells Fargo & Co. agreed to pay a $70 million penalty in ending the bank's five-year fight to settle legal claims over foreclosure missteps after the 2008 credit crisis. U.S. regulators announced the fine for the San Francisco-based bank on Wednesday ... and more »
  • 4:21 PM » Freddie Mac Completes First Credit Risk Transaction With 15-Year Mortgages
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 4:21 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Completes First Credit Risk Transaction With 15-Year Mortgages
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 1:45 PM » Mortgage Debt Outstanding Expands On Growing Originations
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 1:45 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to the Household Debt and Credit Report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, aggregate household debt outstanding totaled $12.252 trillion in the first quarter of 2016, 2.4%, $401 billion, greater than its level of one year ago. The report found that non-housing related debt outstanding (auto loans, credit cards, student loans and other debt) increased year-over-year... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:45 PM » NAHB Releases Remodeling by Zip Code Estimates for 2016
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 1:45 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB has released its latest projections of spending on improvements to owner-occupied housing by zip code. The projections show total spending on improvements, the number of owner-occupied homes, as well as average spending per improvement, in each zip code for calendar year 2016. Also shown for each zip are 2016 projections for the five key variables NAHB uses to estimate home improvement... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:45 PM » Lawler: Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in April
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 1:45 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in April. On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas. The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors continue to pull back, the share of all cash buyers continues to decline.   Short Sales Share Foreclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" Share All Cash Share Apr- 2016 Apr- 2015 Apr- 2016 Apr- 2015 Apr- 2016 Apr- 2015 Apr- 2016 Apr- 2015 Las Vegas 4.5% 7.2% 7.1% 8.3% 11.6% 15.5% 28.1% 30.4% Reno     8
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:01 PM » SIFMA Publishes Quarterly Research Report for 1Q 2016
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 12:01 PM by SIFMA
    SIFMA Publishes Quarterly Research Report for 1Q 2016<br/>http://www.sifma.org/newsroom/2016/sifma-publishes-quarterly-research-report-for-1q-2016/
  • 12:00 PM » How Fed Rate Hike Messaging Impacts the Economy
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 12:00 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg How Fed Rate Hike Messaging Impacts the Economy Bloomberg Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson discusses how the Fed is handling its interest rate hike messaging. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›." (Source: Bloomberg). Related. Full Show: Surveillance (05/24). Most Recent Videos. How Fed ...
  • 10:19 AM » FHFA: House Prices increased 0.7% in March, New Zip Code HPI Data
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 10:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the FHFA: U.S. House Prices Rise 1.3 Percent in First Quarter; 19 Consecutive Quarterly Increases U.S. house prices rose 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2016 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). This is the nineteenth consecutive quarterly price increase in the purchase-only, seasonally adjusted index. House prices rose 5.7 percent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016 . This is the fourth consecutive year in which prices grew more than 5 percent. FHFA's seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.7 percent from February . The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ... "While the overall appreciation rate was robust in the first quarter, home price appreciation was somewhat less widespread than in recent quarters," said FHFA Supervisory Economist Andrew Leventis. "Twelve states and the District of Columbia saw price declines in the quarter-the most areas to see price depreciation since the fourth quarter of 2013. Although most declines were modest, such declines are notable given the pervasive and extraordinary appreciation we have been observing for many years." While the purchase-only HPI rose 5.7 percent from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016, prices of other goods and services were nearly unchanged. The inflation-adjusted price of homes rose approximately 5.6 percent over the latest year. emphasis added And on local HPIs: With this quarter's release, FHFA is publishing a set of experimental annual house price indexes for five-digit ZIP codes across the country from 1975?2015 .? The indexes are constructed using the typical "repeat-transactions" methodology. Unlike FHFA's other price indexes, however, the five-digit ZIP code measures are annual price measures , meaning that a single index value is produced for each year. As discussed in FHFA...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:19 AM » OCC Terminates Mortgage Servicing-Related Consent Order Against Wells Fargo Bank, Issues $70 Million Civil Money Penalty
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 10:19 AM by OCC
    The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today terminated its mortgage servicing-related order against Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (Wells Fargo), and assessed a $70 million civil money penalty against the bank for previous violations of the order.
  • 10:19 AM » Can the Fed Control the US Yield Curve?
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 10:19 AM by Bloomberg
    Can the Fed Control the US Yield Curve? Bloomberg May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch Director of G10 FX Strategy Kamal Sharma discusses Treasuries and Fed policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 10:19 AM » More U.S. Housing Markets Improving
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 10:19 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    More U.S. Housing Markets Improving
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:19 AM » Over 20% of Home Builders Have Already Used Aerial Drones
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 10:19 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Results from a recent NAHB survey of single-family builders show that a majority of them (66 percent) are aware that unmanned aerial vehicles (i.e., drones) have been used on construction sites, and 22 percent have already used a drone in their own construction business at least once (including cases where they may have hired a third party to do so).... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:05 AM » Fed just amassing ammo for next recession with summer hike: Forester
    Published Wed, May 25 2016 8:05 AM by CNBC
    In preparing the market for a summer interest rate hike, the Fed is girding itself for an economic downturn, Tom Forester says.
  • Tue, May 24 2016
  • 4:22 PM » Clinton accuses Trump of cheering housing crisis for profit
    Published Tue, May 24 2016 4:22 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Hillary Clinton, seeking to dampen Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's growing appeal with working-class voters, on Tuesday accused him of having cheered on the 2008 housing market crash.
  • 4:22 PM » Comments on April New Home Sales
    Published Tue, May 24 2016 4:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The new home sales report for April was very strong at 619,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and combined sales for January, February and March were revised up by 44 thousand SAAR. This was the highest sales rate since January 2008. Sales were up 23.8% year-over-year (YoY) compared to April 2015. And sales are up 9.0% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2015. Earlier: New Home Sales increased sharply to 619,000 Annual Rate in April . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows new home sales for 2015 and 2016 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Sales to date are up 9.0% year-over-year, mostly because of the strong sales in April. Overall   I expect lower growth this year , probably in the 4% to 8% range.  Slower growth is likely this year because  Houston (and other oil producing areas) will have a problem this year . Inventory of existing homes is increasing quickly and prices will probably decline in those areas. And that means new home construction will slow in those areas too. And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years. The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through April 2016. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales. I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales. However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. If not, then the gap will persist. Another way to look at this is a ratio of existing...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:19 PM » Bond auction may signal something darker
    Published Tue, May 24 2016 4:19 PM by CNBC
    Buyers swarmed the two-year Treasury auction, at the same time market expectations for a Fed rate hike were building.
  • 12:39 PM » Rosenberg: Rate hike 'reckless'
    Published Tue, May 24 2016 12:39 PM by CNBC
    A slow economy, weak market and deflation hardly add up to ideal conditions to raise rates, David Rosenberg says.
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