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  • Fri, Aug 18 2017
  • 3:07 PM » N.Y. Fed raises U.S. third-quarter GDP growth view above two percent
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 3:07 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve on Friday raised its estimate of U.S. gross domestic product growth for the third quarter above 2 percent based on this week's data on retail sales, industrial output and regional manufacturing.
  • 3:06 PM » Sacramento Housing in July: Sales up Slightly YoY, Active Inventory down 18% YoY
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 3:06 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    During the recession, I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (equity, REOs, and short sales). For several years, not much changed. But in 2012 and 2013, we saw some significant changes with a dramatic shift from distressed sales to more normal equity sales. Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009. In July, total sales were up 0.7% from July 2016, and conventional equity sales were up 5.0% compared to the same month last year. In July, 2.4% of all resales were distressed sales. This was down from 3.2% last month, and down from 4.9% in July 2016. The percentage of REOs was at 1.3%, and the percentage of short sales was 1.1%. Sacramento Realtor Press Release: July sees decrease in sales volume; inventory, price increase July ended with a 10.4% decrease in sales, down from 1,824 to 1,634. Compared with 2016, current number is .7% higher than the 1,622 sales for that month . Equity sales for the month reached a high point, accounting for 97.2% (1,588) of the sales this month. REO/bank-owned and Short Sales made up the difference with 22 sales (1.3%) and 18 sales (1.1%) for the month, respectively. ... The decrease in sales for the month and increase in active listings raises the Months of Inventory, which showed a 25% increase from 1.2 Months to 1.5 Months. A year ago the Months of inventory was 1.7. Total Active Listing Inventory increased 13.8% from 2,105 to 2,395. This current figure is down 14.5% from the 2,801 listings of July last year . The Average DOM (days on market) remained at 18 from June to July. emphasis added Here are the statistics . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales. There has been a sharp increase in conventional (equity) sales that started in 2012 (blue) as the percentage...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:57 PM » The Hutchins Center Explains: The Fed's balance sheet
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 1:57 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The Federal Reserve's portfolio of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities has more than quadrupled over the past decade. In June, the Fed announced a plan for beginning to shrink the balance sheet, and most market participants expect the Fed to pull the trigger on this process at its September 19-20 meeting. Currently, the balance sheet stands…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 1:20 PM » Stability concerns focus at Fed ahead of Yellen speech
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 1:20 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The stock market's steady rise, still low long-term bond yields and a sagging dollar are girding the Fed's intent to raise interest rates again this year despite concerns about weak inflation, according to comments this week from Fed officials and analysts anticipating remarks next week by Chair Janet Yellen.
  • 12:52 PM » Trump decides to remove chief strategist Steve Bannon: New York Times
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 12:52 PM by CNBC
    White House chief strategist Steve Bannon is leaving the Trump administration.
  • 10:27 AM » As US stocks get slammed, these markets are gaining ground
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 10:27 AM by CNBC
    As U.S. stocks swoon, emerging markets, and one in particular, are gaining strength, says BNP Paribas' Marcelo Carvalho.
  • 10:27 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Unchanged in 46 states in July, Two States at New Series Lows
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 10:27 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were higher in July in 3 states, lower in 1 state, and stable in 46 states and the District of Columbia , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twenty-seven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 23 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 4.3 percent, was little changed from June but was 0.6 percentage point lower than in July 2016. ... North Dakota and Colorado had the lowest unemployment rates in July, 2.2 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. The rates in North Dakota (2.2 percent) and Tennessee (3.4 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.0 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession. The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976. Ten states have reached new all time lows since the end of the 2007 recession.  These ten states are: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin. The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Alaska, at 7.0%, had the highest state unemployment rate. The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently one state has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); Only two states and D.C. are at or above 6% (dark blue). The states are Alaska (7.0%) and New Mexico (6.3%).  D.C. is at 6.4%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:05 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 97.6 in August vs. 94 estimate
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 10:05 AM by CNBC
    Economists expected consumer sentiment to reach 94 in August, according to a survey from Thomson Reuters.
  • 9:34 AM » Holidays on Hold in Bond Market Defying Usual August Slowdown
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 9:34 AM by Bloomberg
    Holidays on Hold in Bond Market Defying Usual August Slowdown Bloomberg Beaches are far from the minds of many company treasurers this summer as they focus instead on crowding into bond markets, as rising Fed rates and explosive White House politics inject refinancing plans with a sense of urgency. With those risks looming ... and more »
  • 9:03 AM » Freddie Mac Introduces Innovative Appraisal Alternative for Home Purchases and Refinances
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 9:03 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Introduces Innovative Appraisal Alternative for Home Purchases and Refinances
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 8:06 AM » Fed's Yellen to Headline Annual Jackson Hole Policy Conference - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed's Yellen to Headline Annual Jackson Hole Policy Conference Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will join European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week, setting the stage for a potentially revealing debate over the common challenges facing the world's two most powerful central ... and more »
  • 8:05 AM » US Treasurys rise as US politics, Barcelona attack weigh on sentiment
    Published Fri, Aug 18 2017 8:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. bonds rose as investors turned their attention to turbulence seen in U.S. politics and the terror attack in Europe.
  • Thu, Aug 17 2017
  • 5:14 PM » Blackstone to acquire Harvest Fund Advisors
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 5:14 PM by Market Watch
    Blackstone Group LP said late Thursday it agreed to acquire Harvest Fund Advisors LLC for an undisclosed sum. Harvest Fund, which manages more than $10 billion in assets, invests capital from institutional investors into separately managed accounts or pooled vehicles, Blackstone said. Blackstone said it expects the acquisition to close in the fourth quarter. Blackstone shares were unchanged at $31.60 after hours.
  • 4:12 PM » Freddie Mac August 2017 Outlook
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 4:12 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac August 2017 Outlook
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 2:26 PM » CFPB issues reports on student loan repayment and repayment assistance programs
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 2:26 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB has issued two new reports concerning student loans. The first report, “CFPB Data Point: Student Loan Repayment,” examines how the payment patterns of student loan borrowers have changed over the last 14 years. The second report, “Innovation highlights: Emerging student loan repayment assistance programs,” discusses assistance programs offered by employers and other third... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:25 PM » Wall Street's 'fear gauge'--the VIX--jumps 23% amid falling Dow, Barcelona terror attack
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 2:25 PM by Market Watch
    A widely followed gauge of fear and volatility on Wall Street spiked in Thursday afternoon trade, underscoring a sudden pickup of worry amid handwringing over President Donald Trump, a reported terror attack in Spain and concerns about sluggish inflation. The CBOE Volatility Index was up 23% at 14.46 in recent trade. The index, which tracks options bets on the S&P 500 index 30-days in the future typically moves inversely with stocks and is viewed as a gauge of the market's wager on pullbacks in the market, because stocks tend to fall faster than they rise. Thursday's climb in the so-called fear gauge, also known as the VIX, coincided with a 170-point tumble in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a sharp retreat in the S&P 500 index . Stock investors have been shaken by uncertainty around President Trump's ability to get through his business-friendly legislative reforms after a trove of Wall Street leaders disbanded from key presidential advisory committees resulting in their disbanding on Wednesday in reaction to the president's response to a weekend white-supremacist rally in Charlotesville, Va., that resulted in the death of Heather Heyer. The downdraft in the market also comes as a terror attack was being reported in Barcelona, where at least one person was reported dead by local police. Concerns about the Fed's acknowledgement that tepid inflation is raising concerns that the economy isn't firing on all cylinders is adding to deflating sentiment. Earlier in the week, the market been enjoying a slight updraft after last week's rough patch. In jeopardy is a four-session rally for the Dow industrials. More broadly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was down at 2.20%, with prices rising and yields falling, while haven gold was trading up 0.7% at $1,291 an ounce. Those assets tend to rise when investors adopt a more "risk off" posture, dumping assets perceived as risky in times of uncertainty. At last check, the Dow...
  • 2:25 PM » Million-Dollar Neighborhoods Proliferate
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 2:25 PM by www.builderonline.com
    Areas where at least 10% of homes are worth seven figures jumps by more than 30% since 2014.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 12:22 PM » Freddie Mac Statement on HARP Extension and Modifications to Forthcoming High LTV Refinance Program
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 12:22 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Statement on HARP Extension and Modifications to Forthcoming High LTV Refinance Program
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:22 PM » Mortgage Rates Drop Again
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 12:22 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Drop Again
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:21 PM » White House: Rumors of Gary Cohn's resignation '100% false'
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 12:21 PM by CNBC
    The White House strongly denied rumors that National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn might leave the Trump administration.
  • 12:21 PM » Outside the Box: Crowdfunded real-estate investments
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 12:21 PM by Market Watch
    Investments range from multifamily developments and shopping centers to micro-unit residences and self-storage facilities, and can be in urban or suburban areas across the country
  • 10:54 AM » Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey "region continued to advance" in August
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 10:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier from the Philly Fed: August 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to advance in August, according to firms responding to this month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The diffusion index for general activity fell slightly but continued to reflect growth. There was a notable improvement in the new orders and shipments indexes, and overall employment expansion continued among the reporting firms. The survey's indexes of future activity indicate that firms expect a continuation of growth in the region's manufacturing sector over the next six months. The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell slightly from 19.5 in July to 18.9 in August . The index has been positive for 13 consecutive months ... The survey's indicators for labor market conditions suggest modest growth in employment. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (15 percent) was greater than the percentage reporting decreases (5 percent). The employment index held near steady at 10.1. Firms also reported overall increases in average work hours in August, and the workweek index was positive for the 10th consecutive month. emphasis added Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis). This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show somewhat faster, and solid expansion in August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:41 AM » Home Sales Fell 3.5 Percent in July, the 22nd Consecutive Month to Post an Inventory Decline
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 10:41 AM by www.redfin.com
    Home prices increased 6.8 percent from last year The post Home Sales Fell 3.5 Percent in July, the 22nd Consecutive Month to Post an Inventory Decline appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:51 AM » A Gary Cohn resignation would 'crash the markets,' management guru Jeffrey Sonnenfeld says
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by CNBC
    Investors are counting on Trump aide Gary Cohn to help push through tax reform, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld tells CNBC.
  • 9:51 AM » US stock futures lower as markets mull the Trump CEO fallout drama
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by CNBC
    The Dow on Thursday logged its fourth positive session in a row. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were riding gains in three of the past four sessions.
  • 9:51 AM » Most D.C. Renters Plan On Leaving Rather Than Settling Down
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by www.builderonline.com
    The lack of affordable options is driving residents out of the city.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:51 AM » Single-Family Rents Increase in June 2017
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Rent growth has decelerated since its February 2016 peak.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:51 AM » Townhouse Construction Flat
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction starts have slowed relative to the expansion of the overall building market. Over the last four quarters ending with the second quarter of 2017, townhouse starts totaled 94,000, 5% lower than the four quarters prior this past year. Townhouses, or... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:51 AM » Schwarzman and CEOs dispute Trump's account of who disbanded their policy forum
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by CNBC
    Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman, who chaired the group, thought he had an agreement with the White House to announce the disbanding as a joint decision.
  • 9:51 AM » U.S. jobless claims fall to near six-month low
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:51 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to near a six-month low last week, pointing to a further tightening in the labor market that could encourage the Federal Reserve to lay out a plan to start unwinding its massive bond portfolio.
  • 9:50 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.2% in July
    Published Thu, Aug 17 2017 9:50 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in July following an increase of 0.4 percent in June. In July, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent; the production of motor vehicles and parts fell substantially, but that decrease was mostly offset by a net gain of 0.2 percent for other manufacturing industries. Following a six-month string of increases beginning in September 2016, factory output was little changed, on net, between February and July. The indexes for mining and utilities in July rose 0.5 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. At 105.5 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.2 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 76.7 percent , a rate that is 3.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 9.9 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 76.7% is 3.2% below the average from 1972 to 2015 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in July to 105.5. This is 21.1% above the recession low, and above the pre-recession peak. The increase was slightly below expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • Wed, Aug 16 2017
  • 3:57 PM » Fed's Mester says U.S. rate hikes should continue despite weak inflation
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 3:57 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said the recent weakness in U.S. inflation has not convinced her the Fed should delay plans for further interest rate hikes in an economy she feels remains on track for steady growth and rising wages.
  • 3:55 PM » NY Fed: "Household Borrowing Grows Modestly; Credit Card Delinquencies Rise"
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 3:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Household Borrowing Grows Modestly; Credit Card Delinquencies Rise The CMD's latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit reveals that total household debt rose by $114 billion (0.9 percent) to $12.84 trillion in the second quarter of 2017. There were modest increases in mortgage, auto, and credit card debt (increasing by 0.7 percent, 2 percent, and 2.6 percent respectively), no change to student loan debt, and a decline in home equity lines of credit (which fell by 0.9 percent). Flows of credit card balances into both early and serious delinquencies climbed for the third straight quarter-a trend not seen since 2009 . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q2.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased in the second quarter of 2017, for the 12th consecutive quarter, and are now $164 billion higher than the previous (2008Q3) peak of $12.68 trillion. As of June 30, 2017, total household indebtedness was $12.84 trillion, a $114 billion (0.9%) increase from the first quarter of 2017. Overall household debt is now 15.1% above the 2013Q2 trough. Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased again during the first quarter. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on June 30 stood at $8.69 trillion, an increase of $64 billion from the first quarter of 2017. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) were roughly flat, and now stand at $452 billion. Non-housing balances were up in the second quarter. Auto loans grew by $23 billion and credit card balances increased by $20 billion, while student loan balances were roughly flat. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. There is still a larger than normal percent of debt 90+ days delinquent (Yellow, orange and red). The overall delinquency...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:16 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2017
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 2:16 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 25-26, 2017
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 2:15 PM » Fed policymakers grow more worried about weak inflation: minutes
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 2:15 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for a halt to further interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the central bank's last policy meeting.
  • 1:59 PM » Trump says ending two CEO advisory panels: tweet
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 1:59 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump dismantled two CEO advisory panels on Wednesday as a growing number of chief executives announced their resignations following his response to a weekend of violence in Virginia that stoked racial tensions nationwide.
  • 1:57 PM » New Single-Family Home Size Trends Lower
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 1:57 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the second quarter of 2017. This change of the last two years marks a reversal of the trend that had been in place as builders focused on the higher end of the market during the recovery. As the entry-level market... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:26 PM » Every Region of U.S. Sees Fewer New Homes Hitting the Market—Except One
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 12:26 PM by www.realtor.com
    New home construction isn't expect to ease the maddening housing crunch anytime soon except, perhaps, in one part of the country. The post Every Region of U.S. Sees Fewer New Homes Hitting the Market-Except One appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:26 PM » Fed's Fischer calls Trump-led rollback of Wall Street regulations ‘mind-boggling'
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 12:26 PM by Market Watch
    The Federal Reserve's second in command warns the Trump administration's rollback of bank regulations may be "very dangerous" and another senior Fed official suggests the White House's goal of 3% annual economic growth is unrealistic.
  • 12:26 PM » Comments on July Housing Starts
    Published Wed, Aug 16 2017 12:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.155 Million Annual Rate in July The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 4.8% in July compared to June, and were down 5.6% year-over-year compared to July 2016.  This was a weak report and was below the consensus forecast. Note that multi-family starts are volatile month-to-month, and has seen wild swings over the last year. This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2016 (blue) and 2017 (red). Click on graph for larger image. Starts were down 4.8% in July 2017 compared to July 2016, and starts are up only 2.4% year-to-date. Note that single family starts are up 8.6% year-to-date, and the weakness (as expected) has been in multi-family starts. My guess is starts will increase around 3% to 7% in 2017 . Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily over the last few years - but has turned down recently.  Completions (red line) have lagged behind - but completions have been catching up (more deliveries).  Completions lag starts by about 12 months. As I've been noting for a couple of years, the growth in multi-family starts is behind us - multi-family starts probably peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR). The second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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