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  • Wed, Dec 8 2021
  • 3:39 PM » Another Powell pivot raises questions about the Fed's policy credibility
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 3:39 PM by CNBC
    The Fed is expected to say it will double the pace of its bond purchase taper, while also likely hinting at more aggressive rate hikes in 2022.
  • 2:03 PM » NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Increased YoY in Early December
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 2:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 77.1 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of December 6 The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)'s Rent Payment Tracker found 77.1 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 6 in its survey of 11.8 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 1.7 percentage point increase from the share who paid rent through December 6, 2020 and compares to 83.2 percent that had been paid by December 6, 2019. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. The NMHC Rent Payment Tracker metric provides insight into changes in resident rent payment behavior over the course of each month, and, as the dataset ages, between months. While the tracker is intended to serve as an indicator of resident financial challenges, it is also intended to track the recovery as well, including the effectiveness of government stimulus and subsidies. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to 2019 and to the first COVID year.  Although payments are down from 2019, rent payments are up from last year. This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. The second graph shows full month payments through November compared to the same month the prior year. For November, rent payments were down compared to November 2019 and 2020. CR Note: There are some timing issues month-to-month.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:02 PM » Housing Market Update: Home Prices Hit Another Record High as Supply of Homes For Sale Hits Record Low
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 2:02 PM by www.redfin.com
    However, homebuying demand may be slowing down as winter approaches.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 10:14 AM » BLS: Job Openings Increased to 11.0 million in October
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 10:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.5 million and total separations edged down to 5.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent following a series high in September. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The huge spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in October to 11.033 million from 10.602 million in September. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 61% year-over-year.  Quits were up 24% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:39 AM » Pfizer-BioNTech say booster dose provides high level of protection against omicron variant
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 8:39 AM by CNBC
    Pfizer-BioNTech say booster dose provides high level of protection against omicron variant<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/08/pfizer-biontech-say-booster-dose-provides-high-level-of-protection-against-omicron-variant.html
  • 8:08 AM » Treasury yields inch lower amid mixed updates on the omicron variant
    Published Wed, Dec 08 2021 8:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday morning, following mixed updates on the new omicron variant.
  • Tue, Dec 7 2021
  • 10:40 PM » U.S. House passes bill to speed passage of debt limit increase
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 10:40 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. House of Representatives late on Tuesday approved a measure allowing Congress to fast-track legislation raising the federal government's debt limit and stave off a potential unprecedented default.
  • 3:32 PM » Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Declines in November"; Up Sharply Year-over-year
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 3:32 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines In November The Dodge Momentum Index fell 4% in November to 171.7 (2000=100) - down from the revised October reading of 178.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In November, commercial planning fell 8% while institutional planning moved 5% higher. The value of nonresidential building projects continues to move in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between a month of gains followed by a loss. Since the pandemic began, nonresidential building projects entering planning have been more volatile than in past cycles, likely driven by increased challenges from higher prices and lack of labor. Despite these issues and a lack of underlying demand for some building types such as offices and hotels, the Momentum Index remains near a 14-year high. Compared to November 2020, the Momentum Index was 44% higher in November 2021 . The commercial planning component was 45% higher, and institutional was 41% higher. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 171.7 in November, down from 178.1 in October. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:49 PM » Amazon services down for thousands of users - Downdetector.com
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 12:49 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) -Amazon.com Inc's services including Amazon Web Services (AWS), Prime Video and its namesake e-commerce website were down for thousands of users on Tuesday, according to outage tracking website Downdetector.com.
  • 12:41 PM » CFPB Issues Final Rule to Facilitate Transition from LIBOR
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 12:41 PM by CFPB
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) today finalized a rule facilitating the transition away from the LIBOR interest rate index for consumer financial products. The rule establishes requirements for how creditors must select replacement indices for existing LIBOR-linked consumer loans after April 1, 2022.
  • 11:34 AM » 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 11:34 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November Excerpt: Denver, Las Vegas, Northwest (Seattle), and San Diego From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report From October to November, the market saw a staggering 33.41 percent decrease in month-end active inventory, dropping to 2,248. Throughout the entire Denver Metro area, there are currently only 1,444 single-family detached properties and 804 attached properties to buy. Over the past five years, month-end active inventory dropped between 23.36 percent in 2016 and 27.92 percent in 2019. Theoretically, if inventory stayed the course and dropped 25 percent this year, the market would end the year at 1,686 active properties leading into 2022, which is drastically lower than the end of 2020 and would lead to the most competitive year yet. With 2,248 active listings on the market and that number expected to go down by the end of the month, expectations are set that 2022 will be a wild and competitive ride . emphasis added  Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 27.2% in November MoM from October, and down 36.3% YoY. Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these four markets were down 33% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn't indicating a slowing market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:01 AM » Economic Pessimism Hits 10-Year High, but Consumer Sentiment Toward Housing Remains Flat
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 11:01 AM by Fannie Mae
    The Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) decreased 0.8 points to 74.7 in November.
  • 10:26 AM » Wells Fargo sees borrower defaults starting to rise from low levels reached during pandemic
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 10:26 AM by CNBC
    Banks this year released billions of dollars from loan loss reserves.
  • 8:51 AM » Trade Deficit Decreased to $67.1 Billion in October
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 8:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised. October exports were $223.6 billion, $16.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $290.7 billion, $2.5 billion more than September imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Both exports and imports increased in October. Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero. The trade deficit with China increased to $31.4 billion in October, from $30.0 billion in October 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:51 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 18% YoY in October
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 8:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth at a Record 18% in October, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2021. U.S. annual home price growth remained strong at 18% in October , the highest recorded in the 45-year history of the index. Nonetheless, monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and signals a moderation in price growth that the CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects will continue to slow in coming months. Despite affordability challenges, a recent CoreLogic consumer survey shows that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs - further supporting the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains. " New household formation, investor purchases and pandemic-related factors driving demand for the limited supply of available for-sale homes continues to propel the upward spiral of U.S. home prices ," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "However, we expect home price growth to moderate over the near term as many buyers take a break for the holidays." ... Nationally, home prices increased 18% in October 2021, compared to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to September 2021. ... Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.5% increase by October 2022 as affordability and economic concerns deter some potential buyers and additional for-sale inventory becomes available. "Single-family detached houses remain the preferred home for buyers during the pandemic," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "This is reflected in the 19.5% annual price rise for detached houses, which marks another record...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:03 AM » Treasury yields inch higher as omicron variant fears ease
    Published Tue, Dec 07 2021 8:03 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday morning, as concerns eased around the omicron Covid variant.
  • Mon, Dec 6 2021
  • 2:08 PM » Biden targets all-cash home deals in anti-corruption drive
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 2:08 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Biden administration on Monday vowed to crack down on "criminals, kleptocrats and others" paying cash for houses to launder money as part of a broader anti-corruption drive linked to this week's U.S. Summit for Democracy.
  • 2:07 PM » Apartment rent and occupancy hit record highs, even as market enters its traditionally slow season
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 2:07 PM by CNBC
    Apartment rent and occupancy set new records in November, even as the rental market headed into its traditionally slow season.
  • 10:48 AM » Housing Inventory December 6th Update: Inventory Down 6.5% Week-over-week
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 10:48 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Tracking existing home inventory is very important this year and in 2022 . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research . As of December 3rd, inventory was at 350 thousand (7-day average), compared to 481 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 27.1%.  Inventory is down 6.5% from last week. Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 58.0% from 834 thousand.  A week ago, inventory was at 375 thousand, and was down 24.9% YoY.    Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April (usually inventory bottoms in January or February). Inventory was about 14% above the record low in early April. Inventory peaked for the year in early September, when inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year), so inventory is currently off about 19.9% from the peak for the year.   Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube .  
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:54 AM » Sunday Night Futures
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 9:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Weekend: • Schedule for Week of December 5, 2021 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are up 24 and DOW futures are up 260 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $66.26 per barrel and Brent at $69.88 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $46, and Brent was at $49 - so WTI oil prices are up 50% year-over-year . Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.35 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.11 per gallon year-over-year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:03 AM » Treasury yields climb as investors monitor omicron variant
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Treasury yields rose on Monday as risk sentiment looked for a rebound following Friday's pullback.
  • 8:03 AM » A major shift is underway at the Federal Reserve that could see a speedier end to its easy policies
    Published Mon, Dec 06 2021 8:03 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is likely to decide to double the pace of its taper to $30 billion a month at its December meeting, comments from central bank officials suggest.
  • Fri, Dec 3 2021
  • 1:34 PM » Consumers Continue to Drive Economic Growth as Employment Report Sends Mixed Signals
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 1:34 PM by Fannie Mae
    Economic and Housing Weekly Note - December 3, 2021
  • 1:33 PM » Black Knight: Number of Mortgages in Forbearance "Drops Below the Million Mark"
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 1:33 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This data is as of November 30th. From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearance Plan Total Drops Below the Million Mark Daily tracking data through December 1 shows the number of active forbearance plan totals dropping below 1 million for the first time since the start of the pandemic. According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans fell by 23,000 (-2.3%) this week, led by a 14,000 (-3.9%) drop in FHA/VA loans. Both GSE (-7K/-2%) and PLS/portfolio (-2K/-.6%) plan volumes also improved. As of November 30, 994,000 mortgage holders (1.9%) remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans , including 1.1% of GSE, 2.9% of FHA/VA and 2.5% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans. Click on graph for larger image. Overall, the number of forbearance plans is down by 215,000 (-18%) from the same time last month, with the potential for additional improvements as we progress through December. After seeing starts jump before Thanksgiving, they fell to a pandemic low this week. This week's low was likely due to the shorter holiday week. emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:09 PM » AAR: November Rail Carloads Down Compared to 2019; Intermodal Up Slightly
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 1:09 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators . Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission . U.S. railroads originated 917,787 total carloads in November 2021, up 2.0% over November 2020 and down 3.9% from November 2019. The 2.0% gain in November was the ninth straight gain, but it was also the smallest percentage gain in those nine months. ... U.S. railroads originated 1.03 million intermodal containers and trailers in November, down 9.6% from November 2020 and up 0.8% over November 2019. November 2021 was the fourth straight month in which intermodal volume fell, and the 9.6% decline was the biggest decline in those four months. In 2021, September, October, and November were all in the bottom half of months in terms of intermodal volume, something that has never happened before in our records that go back to 1989. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021: U.S. railroads originated 917,787 total carloads in November 2021, up 2.0% over November 2020 and down 3.9% from November 2019 . Total carloads averaged 229,447 per week in November 2021, the third lowest weekly average for total carloads so far this year. (In part because of Thanksgiving, November is usually in the bottom half of all months in terms of total carloads.) The second graph shows the six week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Intermodal is not included in carload figures. In November 2021, U.S. railroads originated 1.03 million containers and trailers, down 9.6% from November 2020 and up 0.8% over November 2019 . November 2021 was the fourth straight month in which year-over-year intermodal volume fell; November's 9.6% decline is the biggest decline in those four months. Intermodal volume averaged 257,010 units per week in November; only February (253,999) was lower so this year...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:10 PM » Faster Fed taper, earlier rate hikes in sight despite slower job gains
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 12:10 PM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve policymakers look likely to accelerate the winddown of their bond-buying program when they meet later this month, despite November job gains that came in short of expectations, as they move to take out insurance in case inflation does not recede next year as expected.
  • 11:43 AM » Explainer-Could the Omicron variant bring milder illness?
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 11:43 AM by Reuters
    The Omicron variant, spreading now in southern Africa and detected in over 30 other countries, has prompted fears it could significantly undermine the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19.
  • 8:34 AM » Job growth disappoints in November despite high hopes
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 573,000 in November, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:04 AM » Treasury yields dip ahead of jobs report
    Published Fri, Dec 03 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Friday morning, ahead of the release of the November jobs report.
  • Thu, Dec 2 2021
  • 3:30 PM » Rents Still Increasing Sharply
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 3:30 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Rents Still Increasing Sharply Rent increases slowing seasonally Excerpt: The Zillow measure is up 11.2% YoY in October, up from 10.3% YoY in September. And the ApartmentList measure is up 17.7% as of November, up from 16.9% in October. Both the Zillow measure (a repeat rent index), and ApartmentList are showing a sharp increase in rents. ... Clearly rents are increasing sharply, and we should expect this to spill over into measures of inflation in 2022. The Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 3.1% YoY in October, from 2.9% in September - and will increase further in the coming months.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:30 PM » Barriers to Entry: Closing Costs for First-Time and Low-Income Homebuyers
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 3:30 PM by Fannie Mae
    Fannie Mae's latest research on affordable housing solutions shows that closing costs are a meaningful obstacle to sustainable homeownership for first-time and low-income first-time homebuyers, including Black and Hispanic borrowers.
  • 12:18 PM » Democrats, Republicans in U.S. Congress reach deal in government shutdown talks
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 12:18 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Democratic and Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress agreed on a proposal to fund federal agencies through mid-February, clearing the way for a House of Representatives vote on Thursday that would be a critical step in averting a partial government shutdown.
  • 11:19 AM » Thousands could soon lose – or sell – their homes as Covid mortgage bailouts expire
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 11:19 AM by CNBC
    Hundreds of thousands of homeowners could soon lose or sell their homes as Covid-related mortgage bailout programs expire.
  • 11:19 AM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Up 5% Compared to Same Week in 2019; Record Thanksgiving Week Occupancy
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 11:19 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic, CoStar is comparing to 2019. From CoStar: STR: Thanksgiving Boosts US Weekly Hotel Performance U.S. hotel performance came in higher than any other Thanksgiving week on record , according to STR's latest data through November 27. November 21-27, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 53.0% (+4.6%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $128.41 (+14.3%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $68.00 (+19.6%) *Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. This was the first week with an increase over the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate will now decline seasonally into the new year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:04 AM » As shutdown looms, U.S. lawmakers agree on funding government through Feb. 18
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 9:04 AM by Reuters
    Lawmakers in the U.S. Congress have reached agreement to fund federal agencies until Feb. 18, House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro said on Thursday, as they scramble to avoid a partial government shutdown this weekend.
  • 8:54 AM » Omicron Covid variant circulating for longer — and more widely — than first thought, experts say
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 8:54 AM by CNBC
    As more and more cases of the new omicron Covid variant emerge around the world, experts say it's likely that the variant has been circulating for a while.
  • 8:36 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 222,000 vs. 240,000 estimate
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 8:36 AM by CNBC
    Initial claims for unemployment insurance were expected to total 240,000 for the week ended Nov. 27, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:06 AM » Treasury yields mixed amid persistent omicron variant fears
    Published Thu, Dec 02 2021 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Thursday morning, amid continued fears around the omicron Covid-19 variant.
  • Wed, Dec 1 2021
  • 3:52 PM » Housing Market Update: For-Sale Home Supply Hits All-Time Low
    Published Wed, Dec 01 2021 3:52 PM by www.redfin.com
    Home prices hit a new all-time high as it became even more common for homes to find buyers within one week.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 3:52 PM » Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace"
    Published Wed, Dec 01 2021 3:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago based on information collected on or before November 19, 2021." Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Federal Reserve Districts during October and early November . Several Districts noted that despite strong demand, growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Consumer spending increased modestly; low inventories held back sales of some items, notably light vehicles. Leisure and hospitality activity picked up in most Districts as the spread of the Delta variant ebbed in many areas. Construction activity generally increased but was held back by scarce materials and labor. Nonresidential real estate activity increased widely, while residential real estate activity grew in some Districts but declined in others . Manufacturing growth was solid across Districts, though materials and labor shortages limited expansion. High freight volumes continued to strain distribution systems. Energy activity was generally higher, growth in professional and business services varied widely, and demand for education and health services was largely unchanged. Loan demand increased in almost all Districts, though some reported declines in residential mortgages. Agriculture saw improved financial conditions overall and rising land values. The outlook for overall activity remained positive in most Districts, but some noted uncertainty about when supply chain and labor supply challenges would ease. ... Employment growth ranged from modest to strong across Federal Reserve Districts. Contacts reported robust demand for labor but persistent difficulty in hiring and retaining employees. Leisure and hospitality and manufacturing contacts reported an uptick in employment, but many were still limiting operating hours due to a lack of workers. Contacts in several other sectors also noted labor-related constraints on meeting demand. Childcare, retirements, and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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