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  • Fri, Dec 9 2016
  • 4:02 PM » Nomura: FOMC Preview
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 4:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: The FOMC meets next week, and almost every expects a rate hike at the December meeting. A few excerpts from a research note from Nomura: In line with market expectations, we expect the FOMC will raise the federal funds rate target to 0.50-0.75% at the conclusion of the 13-14 December meeting. We think that the incoming data since the last meeting has been sufficiently positive for the Committee to conclude that the case for rate hike has been finally met. On the policy statement, we expect the paragraph on current economic conditions to point to continued growth. Additionally, we expect the Committee to highlight two notable developments - a sharp drop in the unemployment rate and a pickup in market-based measures of inflation compensation - in the statement. On the economic outlook, we expect no substantive changes, although the Committee may acknowledge a shift in the balance of risks to the positive side given the potential fiscal stimulus that will likely be realized under a Republican-led Congress and a Trump White House. In addition, we will receive a new set of forecasts from the FOMC participants. ... Our base scenario is that FOMC participants will not change their outlook for 2017 and beyond as we do not think the Committee will incorporate the possibility of fiscal expansion. It's unclear when and how FOMC participants will take into account potential changes in fiscal policy. In that sense, there is some risk that some participants could raise real GDP projections for 2017 and 2018 in anticipation of fiscal expansion. And, given the recent decline in the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate forecast for 2017 could be also revised lower. ... Last, Chair Yellen will hold a press conference after the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting. ... We will also listen for any clues on how the FOMC may change its outlook in response to the major fiscal stimulus that will likely be enacted next year. I'll post more previews, but a rate hike next...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:25 PM » Fed to hike interest rates next week while ignoring the elephant in the room
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 2:25 PM by Market Watch
    The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week for the first time this year but will refrain from commenting on how President-elect Donald Trump's economic agenda will impact policy.
  • 2:23 PM » Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q3
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 2:23 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2016 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds . According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q3 compared to Q2: The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $90.2 trillion during the third quarter of 2016. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $494 billion and the value of real estate increased $554 billion. Household net worth was at $90.2 trillion in Q3 2016, up from $88.0 trillion in Q2 2016. The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate increased to $22.7 trillion in Q3. The value of household real estate is now above the bubble peak in early 2006 - but not adjusted for inflation, and also including new construction. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  Household net worth, as a percent of GDP, is higher than the peak in 2006 (housing bubble), and above the stock bubble peak. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q3 2016, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 57.3% - up from Q2, and the highest since Q2 2006. This was because of an increase in house prices in Q3 (the Fed uses CoreLogic). Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 57.3% equity - and about 3 million homeowners still have negative equity. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $86 million in Q3. Mortgage debt has declined by $1.21 trillion from the peak. Studies suggest most of the decline in...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:38 AM » NAHB Releases the 2016 "Priced Out" Estimates
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 10:38 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB Economics recently released its 2016 "Priced Out" Estimates showing that, nationally, a $1,000 increase in the median new home price (triggered, for example, by additional regulation) will leave 152,903 households priced out of the market. This means that 152,903 U.S. households could qualify for a mortgage on the median-priced new home before, but not after, the price increases. The... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:38 AM » US wholesalers cut stockpiles, clearing way for new orders
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 10:38 AM by CNBC
    Higher sales and a drop in inventories are good signs that consumers and businesses are spending more.
  • 10:33 AM » Consumer sentiment hit 98 in December vs. 94.5 estimate
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 10:33 AM by CNBC
    Economists had expected the index to rise to 94.5, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus estimate.
  • 10:06 AM » Wells Fargo Wants a Quiet End to Its Scandal, Risking More Noise - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 10:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wells Fargo Wants a Quiet End to Its Scandal, Risking More Noise Bloomberg Wells Fargo & Co.'s attempt to force aggrieved customers into closed-door arbitration over its fake-accounts scandal is drawing a legislative backlash in its home state of California and risks subjecting the bank to another round as a public punching bag. and more »
  • 8:51 AM » Robert Shiller on the market rally: ‘Trump does magic'
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 8:51 AM by CNBC
    The Nobel laureate thinks the post-election rally could continue, as enthusiasm over Trump's election spurs stocks higher.
  • 8:45 AM » Bonds lower as investors digest ECB announcement; data eyed
    Published Fri, Dec 09 2016 8:45 AM by CNBC
    US government debt prices were lower on Friday morning as investors focused on the ECB's surprise announcement on Thursday and eyed key economic data.
  • Thu, Dec 8 2016
  • 5:35 PM » Goldman: Fiscal Boost: Mainly a 2018 Story 
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 5:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips: Fiscal Boost: Mainly a 2018 Story We expect fiscal policy to become more expansionary next year, but the timing is uncertain. Our preliminary expectation is that the growth effects from looser fiscal policy would be concentrated in Q4 2017 and the first half of 2018 . The timing depends mainly on how long it takes tax legislation to become law, and whether Congress legislates a prolonged phase-in or implements the full tax cut in the first year. ... Infrastructure and federal spending are also potential factors. On the former, the lags are often quite long ... On the latter, a boost to defense spending looks likely sometime between Q2 and Q4 2017, but this may be partly offset with cuts to non-defense spending in the same timeframe. The effect of Obamacare "repeal and replace" is less clear, but seems likely to provide a modest net stimulus in the near term-potentially as soon as Q2 2017-as a result of the likely repeal of the taxes used to pay for some of the program. Other changes are likely but seem unlikely to be implemented until 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 5:35 PM » Get ready for Republican rush of regulation rollback
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 5:35 PM by CNBC
    Brace yourselves. The U.S. may be soon experience a severe case of regulatory whiplash.
  • 5:32 PM » Back in a Big Way: U.S. Home Prices Surpass 2006 Peaks
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 5:32 PM by www.realtor.com
    A stronger economy, dearth of new construction, bidding wars, and several expensive cities have pushed U.S. prices to new heights, says a new report. The post Back in a Big Way: U.S. Home Prices Surpass 2006 Peaks appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:55 PM » Op-Ed: The yield that would break the Trump rally's back
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 1:55 PM by CNBC
    Four years ago, Michael Pento predicted a bond-market collapse in 2016. Here's what he sees as the interest rate that would break the Trump rally's back.
  • 1:55 PM » CFPB enters into consent orders with reverse mortgage companies to settle alleged advertising violations
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 1:55 PM by www.cfpbmonitor.com
    Barbara S. Mishkin The CFPB announced that it entered into consent orders with three reverse mortgage companies to settle the CFPB’s allegations that the companies engaged in deceptive advertising in violation of the Mortgage Acts and Practices-Advertising Rule (Regulation N) and the Consumer Financial Protection Act. Each of the consent orders requires payment of a civil money penalty to... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.cfpbmonitor.com
  • 1:53 PM » House Flippers Flee ‘Flashy' Cities as Prices Rise and Inventories Fall
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 1:53 PM by www.realtor.com
    Attom Data thinks the third-quarter slowdown in home flipping is temporary The post House Flippers Flee 'Flashy' Cities as Prices Rise and Inventories Fall appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:53 PM » U.S. household net worth rose to $90.2 trillion in the third-quarter: Fed
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 1:53 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The net worth of U.S. households increased in the third quarter as U.S. stock prices and real estate values continued to flourish, a report by the Federal Reserve showed on Thursday.
  • 11:25 AM » ABA Endorses Down Payment Resource Mortgage Solution
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 11:25 AM by American Bankers Assoc.
    ABA Endorses Down Payment Resource Mortgage Solution<br/>http://www.aba.com/Press/PressRSS/Pages/120816DownPaymentResourcesEndorsement.aspx
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: American Bankers Assoc.
  • 11:25 AM » Mnuchin's Longer Bonds No Guarantee for Lower Interest Burden - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 11:25 AM by Bloomberg
    Mnuchin's Longer Bonds No Guarantee for Lower Interest Burden Bloomberg A closer look at the current breakdown of interest payments on U.S. debt should cause President-elect Donald Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Steven Mnuchin to pause before endorsing the sale of ultra-long bonds as a cushion against rising rates. At ...
  • 10:29 AM » Fannie Mae Announces Release 1 of the Common Securitization Platform
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 10:29 AM by Fannie Mae
    Statements. Share This: December 08, 2016. Statement on the Implementation of Release 1 of the Common Securitization ...
  • 10:29 AM » Mortgage Rates Hit New 2016 High
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 10:29 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Hit New 2016 High
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:29 AM » Dow hits record high at open
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 10:29 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The Dow inched up to hit a record high at the open on Thursday, helped by gains in financial and energy stocks.
  • 10:27 AM » Freddie Mac Implements Common Securitization Platform for Single-Family Mortgage-Backed Securities
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 10:27 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Implements Common Securitization Platform for Single-Family Mortgage-Backed Securities
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:28 AM » U.S. jobless claims decline from five-month high
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 9:28 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell from a five-month high last week, pointing to labor strength that underscores the economy's sustained momentum.
  • 9:11 AM » ECB unexpectedly cuts asset buys, extends until end 2017
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 9:11 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank unexpectedly reduced its asset buys on Thursday but reserved the right to increase purchases once again, a decision that may be seen as a concession to conservative euro zone members such as Germany.
  • 7:28 AM » JP Morgan expects only two Fed hikes in 2017; says Trump's stimulus will be small
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 7:28 AM by CNBC
    A stronger dollar, lower inflation and a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve may lead the central bank to increase rates twice in 2017, JP Morgan said.
  • 7:24 AM » Taper tantrum or more of the same? All eyes on ECB's plans for it bond-buying program
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 7:24 AM by CNBC
    The ECB is widely expected to announce it will continue with its massive trillion-euro bond-buying program at its meeting on Thursday.
  • 7:24 AM » E.C.B. Expected to Extend Measures to Contain Interest Rates
    Published Thu, Dec 08 2016 7:24 AM by www.nytimes.com
    The central bank is expected to say it will keep buying bonds six months longer than planned. But tensions on the Governing Council are rising.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • Wed, Dec 7 2016
  • 3:41 PM » Ho, Ho, Huh?! The 7 Most Bizarre Real Estate Stories of 2016
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:41 PM by www.realtor.com
    Here's a roundup of the top real estate stories that shocked and thrilled us in 2016. The post Ho, Ho, Huh?! The 7 Most Bizarre Real Estate Stories of 2016 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:41 PM » One of your monthly housing bills may get bigger
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:41 PM by CNBC
    Home equity lines of credit are susceptible to a rise in interest rates, which means they just got more expensive.
  • 3:40 PM » AAA Ratings Return for Securities Backed by Riskier Home Loans
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg AAA Ratings Return for Securities Backed by Riskier Home Loans Bloomberg Two ratings firms are assigning AAA ratings to bonds backed by new riskier home loans, one of the few times such securities have won top grades since the financial crisis, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg. Fitch Ratings and DBRS Inc. are ... and more »
  • 3:40 PM » July 11 was a bigger deal than Brexit, Trump or the Fed, says chief investment strategist
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:40 PM by CNBC
    On that day, longer-term bond yields hit what market experts believe was a multi-decade low not to be seen again soon.
  • 3:38 PM » Traders Caught Up in Wall Street Probes Switch to Shadow Banking
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Traders Caught Up in Wall Street Probes Switch to Shadow Banking Bloomberg Some mortgage bond traders tangled up in investigations are moving into the shadow banking system, where their new employers have greater latitude to hire people with blemishes on their records. More than 20 traders at big banks left their jobs, or ... and more »
  • 3:38 PM » ABN Amro to Fire Staff in Mortgage Signature Misconduct Probe
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ABN Amro to Fire Staff in Mortgage Signature Misconduct Probe Bloomberg ABN Amro Group NV will fire some of the mortgage advisers that copied client signatures on amended loan documents and eliminate bonuses for others after a probe found 90 staff broke the Dutch bank's internal rules. "Several dozen" employees have been ... and more »
  • 3:37 PM » Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up 30% YoY, Inventory down Sharply
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 3:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Home Prices and Sales Increasing Heading into Holidays, GLVAR Housing Statistics for November 2016 The Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR) reported Wednesday that Southern Nevada home prices bucked seasonal trends and increased heading into the holidays while home sales continued to exceed last year's pace. ... According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in November was 3,244. That was up 30.0 percent from one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, 31.8 percent more homes, and 31.2 percent more condos and townhomes sold in November. So far in 2016, Beaudry said Southern Nevada is on pace to sell more existing homes this year than during 2015 and during 2014, but fewer than during each of the previous five years. He added that inventory remains tight, with less than a three-month supply of homes available for sale, when a six-month supply is considered to be a balanced market. ... By the end of November, GLVAR reported 7,252 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 30.3 percent from one year ago . For condos and townhomes, the 1,141 properties listed without offers in November represented a 49.0 percent decrease from one year ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up 30% year-over-year. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down sharply from a year ago (A very sharp decline in both single family and condo inventory). This is the second market (Phoenix reported yesterday) with sales up 30% year-over-year. There might be some seasonal factors (more selling days), but this is a significant increase in these markets.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:02 AM » BLS: Job Openings "little changed" in October
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 11:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of October , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were also little changed at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively.... ... The number of quits was little changed in October at 3.0 million . The quits rate was 2.1 percent. Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private, and decreased for government (-26,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in October to 5.534 million from 5.631 million in September.  Job openings are mostly moving sideways at a high level. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 2% year-over-year. Quits are up 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). This is another solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:01 AM » Residential Construction Employment Grew in November
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 11:01 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The count of unfilled jobs in the overall construction sector remained elevated in October, as residential construction employment continued to grow. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) came in at 205,000 in October, after reaching 221,000 in September. The cycle high was 225,000 set in July. The... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:09 AM » Bond Report: Treasury yields retreat as Thursday's ECB meeting looms
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 10:09 AM by Market Watch
    Yields on European and U.S. sovereign bonds edged lower on Wednesday ahead of a long-anticipated announcement about the future of the European Central Bank's €80 billion ($85 billion) a month bond buying program.
  • 9:05 AM » If You Voted for Trump, It's Time to Buy a House
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 9:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg If You Voted for Trump, It's Time to Buy a House Bloomberg Republicans were pessimistic about the housing market when he trailed in the polls. No more. by. Patrick Clark. @pat_clark More stories by Patrick Clark. December 7, 2016 - 5:00 AM EST. In the housing market, perception often creates its own reality. and more »
  • 9:04 AM » ECB poised to extend its bond-buying program into next September amid heightened Italy risk
    Published Wed, Dec 07 2016 9:04 AM by CNBC
    For Mario Draghi, the timing of Italian referendum and its outcome could not have come at a worse time.
  • Tue, Dec 6 2016
  • 5:05 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 30%, Inventory down 2%
    Published Tue, Dec 06 2016 5:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. Inventory was down 2% year-over-year in October.  This followed eight consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in November were up 30.2% year-over-year. 2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.4% of total sales. 3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year.   More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller. In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller. This slight decrease in inventory followed eight monthly YoY increases.  This might be a change in trend - something to watch. November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Sales Cash Sales Percent Cash Active Inventory YoY Change Inventory Nov-08 4,417 --- 1,217 27.6% 56,227 1 --- Nov-09 7,494 69.7% 2,572 34.3% 40,372 -28.2% Nov-10 6,789 -9.4% 2,966 43.7% 45,353 12.3% Nov-11 7,147 5.3% 3,245 45.4% 26,798 -40.9% Nov-12 6,810 -4.7% 2,945 43.2% 23,232 -13.3% Nov-13 5,181 -23.9% 1,761 34.0% 26,762 15.2% Nov-14 4,986 -3.8% 1,396 28.0% 27,426 2.5% Nov-15 5,308 6.5% 1,542 29.1% 25,022 -8.8% Nov-16 6,911 30.2% 1,618 23.4% 24,582 -1.8% 1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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