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  • Mon, Nov 19 2018
  • 11:45 AM » Bond Traders Face More Volatility as Fed Uncertainty Increases
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 11:45 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders Face More Volatility as Fed Uncertainty Increases Bloomberg An apparent change in tone from top Federal Reserve policy makers could mean that muted volatility in the Treasury market is coming to an end. That's the take from one bond-market veteran following comments last week from Federal Reserve Chairman ... and more »
  • 11:14 AM » Americans aren't moving to economic opportunity
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 11:14 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    The flow of people from struggling to vital counties is one important mechanism for binding the United States into a common market with roughly similar economic fortunes. This process enhances productivity and wage growth, and can play an important role in cushioning regional shocks. However, this mechanism has broken down in recent decades. Migration from…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 8:50 AM » Goldman Sachs believes the US economy will slow to a crawl next year
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    Goldman sees economic growth slowing to below 2 percent in the second half of 2019 as the Fed continues to raise rates and the effects of the tax cut wear off.
  • 8:50 AM » Germany's Weber says draft Brexit deal will not be renegotiated
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:50 AM by Reuters
    German conservative Manfred Weber, who is running to take over the European Union's top job next year, said on Monday that the draft Brexit deal would not be renegotiated and the ball was now in Britain's court.
  • 8:49 AM » Corporate America's Debt Boom Looks Like a Bust for the Economy
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:49 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Corporate America's Debt Boom Looks Like a Bust for the Economy Bloomberg Despite strong incentives in the Republican tax plan for American executives to expand, invest and ultimately boost the U.S. economy's growth potential, a lot of the debt companies are issuing appears to be motivated by something else. Non-financial ... and more »
  • 8:16 AM » Existing Home Sales for October: Take the Over
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for October at 10:00 AM on Wednesday, November 21st. The consensus is for 5.20 million SAAR, up from 5.15 million in September. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will reports sales of 5.31 million SAAR for October and that inventory will be up 2.8% year-over-year. Based on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be above the consensus for October . Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. Last month, in September 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.30 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated the NAR would report 5.20 million, and the NAR reported 5.15 million (as usual Lawler was closer than the consensus). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 144 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 67 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:16 AM » Slumping home prices are creating a buyers market in luxury homes
    Published Mon, Nov 19 2018 8:16 AM by CNBC
    The rising inventory and falling prices naitonwide mean that discerning buyers can score deals on high-end property.
  • Fri, Nov 16 2018
  • 6:19 PM » A vote reversed: What is the path back from Brexit?
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 6:19 PM by Reuters
    To leave, or not to leave: More than two and a half years since the United Kingdom voted to exit the EU, that is still the question.
  • 5:11 PM » CFPB Revised Loan Originator Rule and HOEPA Rule Guides
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 5:11 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB recently issued revised versions of the small entity compliance guides for the Loan Originator Rule and the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) Rule. While some of the most well-known provisions of the Loan Originator Rule are the provisions addressing loan originator compensation, the rule also defines the concept of a loan... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:10 PM » Homebuilder stocks are getting crushed, but one analyst says the chart looks so bad — it's good
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 3:10 PM by CNBC
    While some investors are avoiding homebuilders amid rising interest rates that traditionally serve as a headwind for the economically sensitive group of stocks, others say evidence is mounting for a bounce.
  • 2:42 PM » Single-Family Permits: Declines in the Midwest and Northeast
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 2:42 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first nine months of 2018, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 664,665. On a year-over-year basis, this is a 5.7% increase over the September 2017 level of 628,858. The preliminary results from the New Residential Construction Survey are similar, year-to-date single-family permits over the first nine months of 2018 was, 663,800 which is... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:20 PM » Dollar, U.S. yields slide on Fed official's rate comments
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 2:20 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after a top Federal Reserve official said U.S. interest rates were near a neutral rate, while uncertainty over Britain's exit from the European Union clouded currency and other markets.
  • 1:53 PM » Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Growth Edged Higher" in November
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 1:53 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Edged Higher he Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher, while expectations for future activity moderated slightly. "Firms reported a pickup in orders, production, and shipments in November, following some slowing in recent months" said Wilkerson. ... The month-over-month composite index was 15 in November, up from 8 in October and 13 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The increase in factory growth was driven by both durable and nondurable goods producers, particularly metals, aircraft, food, and plastics. Most month-over-month indexes rose modestly. The production, shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all increased to their highest levels since the middle of the year. The new orders for exports index inched up from 3 to 6, while the employment index eased somewhat . emphasis added
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:25 PM » Trump says China wants trade deal, U.S. may not impose more tariffs
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 1:25 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that China had sent a list of things it was willing to do to resolve trade tensions with the United States and his administration may not have to impose further tariffs, but he added the situation was still not acceptable to him.
  • 11:56 AM » Dollar, U.S. yields fall on Fed comments; Brexit casts shadow
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 11:56 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after a top Federal Reserve official said U.S. interest rates are near a neutral rate, while continued uncertainty over Brexit clouded currency and other markets.
  • 11:25 AM » NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 17th Straight Quarter"
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 11:25 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises for 17th Straight Quarter The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $219 billion (1.6%) to $13.51 trillion in the third quarter of 2018 . It was the 17th consecutive quarter with an increase and the total is now $837 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. Furthermore, overall household debt is now 21.2% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached during the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. ... Mortgage originations increased to $445 billion from $437 billion in the second quarter. Mortgage delinquencies were roughly flat, with 1.1% of mortgage balances 90 or more days delinquent in the third quarter. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report : The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased in the third quarter of 2018 for the 17th consecutive quarter, and are now $837 billion higher than the previous (2008Q3) peak of $12.68 trillion. As of September 30, 2018, total household indebtedness was $13.51 trillion, a $219 billion (1.6%) increase from the second quarter of 2018. Overall household debt is now 21.2% above the 2013Q2 trough. Included in report is a new section disaggregating data by borrower age. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on September 30 stood at $9.1 trillion, an increase of $141 billion from the second quarter of 2018. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC), on a declining trend since...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:57 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 6 states in October, Texas and Washington at New Series Lows
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 10:57 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in October in 6 states , higher in 2 states, and stable in 42 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eighteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 32 states and the District had little or no change. ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in October, 2.3 percent. The rates in Texas (3.7 percent) and Washington (4.3 percent) set new series lows . (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.4 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:35 AM » Nearly One in Three Homes For Sale in October had a Price Drop—Highest Level Since at Least 2010
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 10:35 AM by www.redfin.com
    Home Inventory Continues to Grow as Sales Decline 6% Year over Year U.S. home-sale prices increased 4.5 percent in October compared to a year ago, to a median of $297,200. October’s year-over-year price increase marks a return to an overall healthy level of price growth after posting a 6.5-year low level of growth in September. […] The post Nearly One in Three Homes For Sale in October had a Price Drop-Highest Level Since at Least 2010 appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:46 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in October
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 9:46 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October , as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere. As a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3 percent reported initially. Hurricanes lowered the level of industrial production in both September and October, but their effects appear to be less than 0.1 percent per month. In October, manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent for its fifth consecutive monthly increase, while the indexes for mining and for utilities declined 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. At 109.1 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.1 percent higher in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was 78.4 percent , a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.7 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.4% is 1.4% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in October to 108.5. This is 25% above the recession low, and 4% above the pre-recession peak. The increase in industrial production was below the consensus forecast, however the previous months were revised up.  Capacity utilization was above consensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:32 AM » Brexit front and middle in light week for data
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 8:32 AM by Reuters
    Brexit will be foremost in investors' minds in the coming week, though a smattering of data will offer further indications as to how much global economic growth, bogged down by politics and trade wars, is slowing.
  • 8:09 AM » Larry Summers: 50 percent chance of a US recession by 2020
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 8:09 AM by CNBC
    The former Treasury Secretary warned the Fed should be careful not to raise rates too quickly.
  • 8:02 AM » US bond yields fall amid political uncertainty surrounding Brexit
    Published Fri, Nov 16 2018 8:02 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices ticked higher Friday morning amid political turmoil over Brexit and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks.
  • Thu, Nov 15 2018
  • 5:32 PM » Wells Fargo Cuts 1000 Jobs Across the US on Mortgage Woes
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 5:32 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Wells Fargo Cuts 1000 Jobs Across the US on Mortgage Woes Bloomberg Wells Fargo & Co. is cutting about 1,000 jobs across its consumer-lending and tech-payments units as part of a much larger workforce reduction announced earlier this year. Approximately 900 of the positions will come from the San Francisco-based bank's ... and more »
  • 5:32 PM » The Monopoly for Millennials Game Removed Real Estate Wheeling and Dealing—Why?
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 5:32 PM by www.realtor.com
    Is the new board game Monopoly for Millennials right? Should millennials really forget about real estate since they can't afford it? The post The Monopoly for Millennials Game Removed Real Estate Wheeling and Dealing-Why? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 4:18 PM » California Existing Homes in October: Sales Down 7.9% YoY, Inventory Up 28%
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 4:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: Homebuyers continue to wait it out in October as market uncertainties linger As market uncertainties continue to linger, California home sales declined for the sixth straight month in October and remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the third consecutive month, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 397,060 units in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. October's sales figure was up 3.8 percent from the revised 382,550 level in September and down 7.9 percent compared with home sales in October 2017 of 431,070. October marked the third month in a row that sales were below 400,000, which hasn't occurred since February 2015. "Homebuyers continued to put their homeownership plans on hold in October and wait out the market," said 2019 C.A.R. President Jared Martin. "With mortgage rates at seven-year highs making homeownership more expensive and home prices beginning to flatten, this phenomenon will likely continue for the near term as buyers wait for further price adjustments and for interest rates to stabilize." ... Statewide active listings rose for the seventh consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 28 percent from the previous year . October's listings increase was the largest in four years. emphasis added Here is some inventory data from the NAR and CAR (ht Tom Lawler).  Notice inventory is really increasing year-over-year in California. YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale  ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:12 PM » Goldman Sees Fed Hikes Pushing 2- to 30-Year Spread Toward Zero
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 2:12 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Goldman Sees Fed Hikes Pushing 2- to 30-Year Spread Toward Zero Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says investors should position for continued flattening of the Treasuries yield curve into 2019 as the Federal Reserve will keep hiking interest rates. Analysts including Charles Himmelberg recommend wagering that the gap ...
  • 2:11 PM » Fed set for a broad review on how it conducts policy in 2019
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 2:11 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve in 2019 will launch a broad look at how it conducts policy and conveys what is doing to the public.
  • 2:11 PM » Fed's Bostic says interest rates are 'not too far' from neutral
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 2:11 PM by CNBC
    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic called for caution as the central bank determines how far and how fast to keep raising interest rates. Bostic said the central bank is "not too far" from reaching a "neutral" short-term policy rate.
  • 12:48 PM » Billionaire investor Ray Dalio: Fed raised rates to a point where they're hurting asset prices
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 12:48 PM by CNBC
    Billionaire investor Ray Dalio: Fed raised rates to a point where they're hurting asset prices<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/15/billionaire-ray-dalio-fed-raised-rates-to-a-point-where-theyre-hurting-asset-prices.html
  • 11:40 AM » Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Housing Market Stresses Mount
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 11:40 AM by www.realtor.com
    Rates for home loans took a breather after churning to the highest in nearly eight years, mortgage liquidity provider Freddie Mac said Thursday. The post Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Housing Market Stresses Mount appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:21 AM » Canadian Home Sales Fall for a Second Month in October
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 11:21 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Canadian Home Sales Fall for a Second Month in October Bloomberg Canadian home sales declined for a second month in October led by weakness in the country's largest cities, a realtor group said. The number of transactions fell by 1.6 percent from September, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Thursday. and more »
  • 11:02 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 216,000
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 11:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000 , an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 213,750. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 215,250. This was slightly higher than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:34 AM » Most Buyers Don't Expect House Hunting to Get Easier Soon
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 10:34 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Only about 2 out of every 10 prospective home buyers (people looking to buy a home in the next year) expect the search for a home to get easier in the months ahead. The majority, about 7 out of 10, instead think house hunting will get harder or stay about the same. This opinion is shared among buyers of all... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:14 AM » Why the Housing Market Is Slumping Despite a Booming Economy
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 10:14 AM by www.nytimes.com
    Home prices are out of reach relative to incomes and mortgage rates. The big question for the economy is how the imbalance adjusts.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nytimes.com
  • 9:49 AM » Earlier: NY Fed Mfg "Solid", Philly Fed Mfg "Slowed" in November
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 9:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 23.3. The index for number of employees moved up five points to 14.1, and the average workweek index climbed nine points to 9.2, indicating increases in both employment levels and hours worked. emphasis added From the Philly Fed: November 2018 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Growth in manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to results from this month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and work hours remained positive but fell from their readings last month. The firms remained generally optimistic about future growth. The diffusion index for current general activity decreased from 22.2 in October to 12.9 in November , its lowest reading since August The firms continued to report overall higher employment. Almost 25 percent of the responding firms reported increases in employment this month, while 8 percent of the firms reported decreases in employment. The current employment index remained positive but declined 3 points to 16.3. The current workweek index fell nearly 15 points to 6.3, its lowest reading in two years. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis). This suggests the ISM manufacturing index will show solid expansion again in November, but will likely be lower than in October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:42 AM » Brexit: May hit by two cabinet resignations as Raab and McVey quit over plan – Politics live
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 8:42 AM by www.theguardian.com
    Brexit: May hit by two cabinet resignations as Raab and McVey quit over plan - Politics live
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.theguardian.com
  • 8:34 AM » Billionaire Ray Dalio: Fed raised rates to a point where they're hurting asset prices
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Billionaire Ray Dalio: Fed raised rates to a point where they're hurting asset prices|| 105576328
  • 8:08 AM » Wells Fargo Wants a Bigger Down Payment on That House in Greenwich
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 8:08 AM by Bloomberg
    Wells Fargo Wants a Bigger Down Payment on That House in Greenwich
  • 8:07 AM » Fed's Powell Says US Economy Is in a 'Good Place,' Can Grow Faster
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Powell Says US Economy Is in a 'Good Place,' Can Grow Faster Bloomberg Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell comments on the prospects for the U.S. economy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Speaker Series in Dallas. (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 8:03 AM » US bond yields tick lower amid sterling plunge
    Published Thu, Nov 15 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices ticked higher as investors kept their focus on political news as well as economic data.
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