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  • Fri, Jul 29 2016
  • 4:33 PM » 'Sell everything,'DoubleLine's Gundlach says
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 4:33 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Jeffrey Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said on Friday that many asset classes look frothy and his firm continues to hold gold, a traditional safe-haven, along with gold miner stocks.
  • 4:33 PM » Lawler: Homebuilder Summary Table for Q2 2016
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 4:33 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR Note: Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me these summary results for several large publicly-traded builders who have reported results for last quarter. Lawler notes: CalAtlantic was formed with the merger of Standard Pacific and Ryland, completed in October 2015. The Q2/2015 statistics for CalAtlantic are pro forma statistics for Standard Pacific and Ryland combined. Also, while MDC Holdings has not yet released its "official" results for Q2/2016, it did release preliminary estimates of selected operations statistics for the quarter, which are shown above.   Net Orders Settlements Average Closing Price (000s) Qtr. Ended: 6/30/16 6/30/15 % Chg 6/30/16 6/30/15 % Chg 6/30/16 6/30/15 % Chg D.R. Horton 11,714 10,398 12.7% 10,739 9,856 9.0% $290 290 0.2% Pulte Group 5,697 5,118 11.3% 4,772 3,744 27.5% $367 332 10.5% NVR 4,324 3,796 13.9% 3,581 3,175 12.8% $379 384 -1.5% Cal Atlantic 3,921 3,954 -0.8% 3,484 3,119 11.7% $447 427 4.7% Beazer Homes 1,490 1,524 -2.2% 1,364 1,293 5.5% $330 318 4.0% Meritage Homes 2,073 1,986 4.4% 1,950 1,556 25.3% $408 380 7.4% MDC Holdings 1,647 1,481 11.2% 1,272 1,126 13.0% $448 410 9.3% M/I Homes 1,354 1,100 23.1% 1,042 919 13.4% $362 340 6.5% SubTotal 32,220 29,357 9.8% 28,204 24,788 13.8% $354 $340 4.0%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:44 PM » Land Scarce for Luxury Homes
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 2:44 PM by www.realtor.com
    The demand for land is driving up prices-especially for prime lots in affluent neighborhoods. The post Land Scarce for Luxury Homes appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:46 PM » Fed's Williams downplays GDP weakness, sees rate hikes
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 12:46 PM by Reuters
    CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates up to two times before year end, a top Fed official said on Friday as he downplayed data that showed the U.S. economy grew far less than expected in the last quarter.
  • 12:15 PM » Q2 GDP: Investment Slump
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 12:15 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue. The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories. Click on graph for larger image. There was an investment slump in Q2, even though consumer spending was strong (PCE increased at 4.2% annual rate in Q2). Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 6.1% annual rate in Q2.  Equipment investment decreased at a 3.5% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 7.9% annual rate. On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is positive,  equipment (green) and nonresidential structures (blue) are negative. Nonresidential investment in structures typically lags the recovery, however investment in energy and power provided a boost early in this recovery - and is now causing a decline.  I'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released. I expect investment to pick up going forward (except for maybe energy and power), and for the economy to grow at a steady pace. The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP. Residential Investment as a percent of GDP has generally been increasing, but is only just above the bottom of the previous recessions - and I expect RI to continue to increase for the next few years. I'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:15 PM » What your friends do on Facebook could directly affect the house you live in
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 12:15 PM by CNBC
    Americans' social media networks can have a big impact on their decision to buy a house, new research from NYU shows.
  • 11:26 AM » Fed's Williams says he's not concerned about a recession
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 11:26 AM by Market Watch
    San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he is not concerned about a recession despite the fact that the expansion is now over seven years old.
  • 10:34 AM » Investors continue equity exodus, buy bonds and emerging markets
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 10:34 AM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - Investors pulled more money from global equity funds in the past week while buying bonds and pumping cash into emerging debt, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) said on Friday.
  • 10:34 AM » Chicago PMI declines in July, Final July Consumer Sentiment at 90.0
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 10:34 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Chicago PMI: July Chicago Business Barometer Down 1 Point to 55.8 The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 1 point to 55.8 in July from the 1½-year high of 56.8 in June , led by a fall in New Orders. Smaller declines were seen in Production and Order Backlogs, which offset a strong increase in the Employment component. The Barometer's three-month average , though, which provides a better picture of the underlying trend in economic activity, rose to 54.0 from 52.2 in Q2, the highest since February 2015 . ... "Demand and output softened somewhat in July following a solid showing in June but still outperformed the very weak results seen earlier in the year. On the upside, it was the first time since January 2015 that all five Barometer components were above 50. Looking at the three-month average, the Chicago Business Barometer so far suggests economic activity running at a healthier pace in Q3," said Lorena Castellanos, senior economist at MNI Indicators. emphasis added This was above the consensus forecast of 54.0. Click on graph for larger image. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July was at 90.0, up from the preliminary reading 89.5, and down from 93.5 in June. Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/#pJ9c42Ql0QpF5rzW.99: "Although confidence strengthened in late July , for the month as a whole the Sentiment Index was still below last month's level mainly due to increased concerns about economic prospects among upper income households. The Brexit vote was spontaneously mentioned by record numbers of households with incomes in the top third (23%), more than twice as frequently as among households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds (11%). Given the prompt rebound in stock prices as well as the tiny direct impact on U.S. trade, it is surprising that concerns about Brexit remained nearly as high in late July as immediately following the Brexit vote. While concerns about Brexit are likely to quickly recede, weaker...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:57 AM » Apartment market 'increasingly jittery'
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 8:57 AM by CNBC
    Rents are soaring and demand for apartments is historically high, but some developers are overestimating the market.
  • 8:57 AM » US economy grows a weak 1.2 percent in Q2 as inventories fall
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 8:57 AM by CNBC
    The economy grew far less than expected as inventories fell for the first time since 2011, but a surge in spending pointed to underlying strength.
  • 8:14 AM » Global funds cut share holdings to five-year lows as Brexit bites
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 8:14 AM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - Global investors dumped equities in July and raised bond allocations after Britain's vote to leave the European Union and subsequent signs of damage to economic growth prompted a dash toward fixed income.
  • 3:21 AM » Bank of Japan ups ETF purchases, keeps interest rates steady: Reuters
    Published Fri, Jul 29 2016 3:21 AM by CNBC
    This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.. -Follow CNBC International on Twitter and Facebook..
  • Thu, Jul 28 2016
  • 12:52 PM » Three Things That Show Investors Are Making a Huge Bet on Low Interest Rates
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 12:52 PM by Bloomberg
    Three Things That Show Investors Are Making a Huge Bet on Low Interest Rates Bloomberg How low can you go? Fixed income investors are betting that benchmark interest rates will continue to hover around zero percent, pouring billions of dollars into longer-dated bonds and trades that stand to benefit if central banks maintain the status quo. and more »
  • 12:52 PM » Homeownership rate lowest since 1965
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 12:52 PM by CNBC
    After rising just over a decade ago to its highest level ever, the homeownership rate fell in Q2 to match its all-time low.
  • 11:33 AM » US crude dips into technical bear market, down 20% from 2016 high
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 11:33 AM by CNBC
    Oil prices fell to a three-month low as producers continued to pump more than needed.
  • 11:05 AM » Big banks up their odds of a rate hike this year
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 11:05 AM by CNBC
    Wall Street banks are pricing in expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase rates before 2016 is out.
  • 11:05 AM » How affordable housing gets built
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 11:05 AM by National Housing Conference
    by Ethan Handelman, National Housing Conference; Pamela Blumenthal, Urban Institute  A version of this post originally appeared on  Redfin . Financing affordable housing isn't easy. Our  new interactive tool  shows that without subsidies, which can be hard to come by, it's virtually impossible for developers to build homes that are affordable to low- or extremely low income families. That's because lenders loan money for housing development based on the property's expected income, and when rents are set to affordable levels, there's a huge gap between the money needed to build and the money lenders and investors provide. Yet, new affordable apartment buildings-albeit  not enough  of them-are built. So how do those developers do it?  The primary source of development funding is the  Low-Income Housing Tax Credit  (LIHTC), a federal tax credit administered by state agencies. Most affordable housing that gets built receives an allocation of tax credits. (You'll see in our simulation that the LIHTC tax credits are the default for 100-unit buildings.)  To receive tax credits, a proposed development must dedicate at least either 20 percent of its apartments to people who earn less than half of the area median income or 40 percent of its apartments to people who earn less than 60 percent of area median income. To be affordable, the rent for those apartments must be no more than 30 percent of the target income level. In practice, most properties dedicate most or all of the units to affordable use. Yet, even if a proposal meets these conditions, tax credits aren't guaranteed. States allocate tax credits through a competitive process that varies by state and in most places has many more applications than available credits.  And even if you get the tax credit, as our tool shows, it's not enough. This is where developers have to get...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: National Housing Conference
  • 11:05 AM » Mortgage Rates up Slightly
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 11:05 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates up Slightly
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:05 AM » Greenspan 'Nervous' Bond Prices Too High, Sees Stagflation Ahead
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 11:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Greenspan 'Nervous' Bond Prices Too High, Sees Stagflation Ahead Bloomberg Alan Greenspan is worried bond prices have risen too high. "We ought to be somewhat nervous," the former Federal Reserve chairman said in an interview Thursday with Bloomberg Television. Start your day with what's moving markets. Get our markets daily ... and more »
  • 9:11 AM » US advance June goods trade deficit $63.3 billion
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 9:11 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. advance June goods trade deficit came in at $63.3 billion, widening from the $60.6 billion trade gap reported a month earlier.
  • 9:11 AM » U.S. jobless claims increase; labor market still strong
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 9:11 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to sustained labor market strength.
  • 8:16 AM » America's 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for July 2016
    Published Thu, Jul 28 2016 8:16 AM by www.realtor.com
    Watch out-we're seeing the hottest July in terms of market activity in a decade. According to our numbers, these U.S. markets are on fire. The post America's 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for July 2016 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Wed, Jul 27 2016
  • 3:31 PM » Freddie Mac Quarterly Apartment Investment Index Shows Strong Fundamentals in National and Local Markets
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 3:31 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Quarterly Apartment Investment Index Shows Strong Fundamentals in National and Local Markets
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 2:21 PM » Fed appears more open to September rate hike
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 2:21 PM by Market Watch
    Fed officials said that near-term risks to the economy had diminished, opening the door a bit more for a rate hike as soon as September.
  • 2:20 PM » Fed leaves rates unchanged in July meeting
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 2:20 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve opted Wednesday not to raise interest rates, despite painting a rosier economic picture than it did just a month ago.
  • 12:25 PM » Bond Report: Treasury yields fall to 2-week low as the Fed is set to update policy
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 12:25 PM by Market Watch
    Treasury prices gain Wednesday, pushing yields lower, as investors react to weaker-than-expected economic data ahead of a key Federal Reserve statement on monetary policy due in the afternoon.
  • 10:32 AM » Shipping Container Home May Be the First of Many in Houston
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 10:32 AM by www.realtor.com
    Right now, there's just this one shipping container home on the market. But if the developer has his way, there will be a whole community in Houston, TX. The post Shipping Container Home May Be the First of Many in Houston appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:01 AM » Could subprime auto loans lead to same economic catastrophe as risky mortgages?
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 9:01 AM by Market Watch
    The auto-loan market has been called "stretched," but it's far from being the powder keg that the mortgage market was when the globe plunged into a financial crisis some eight years ago, loan and credit experts emphasized.
  • 9:00 AM » US core capital goods orders rise modestly; overall orders weak
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 9:00 AM by CNBC
    Weak demand for machinery and a range of other goods suggested business spending will remain subdued for a while.
  • 8:34 AM » Silicon Valley Elites Get Home Loans With No Money Down
    Published Wed, Jul 27 2016 8:34 AM by Bloomberg
    Silicon Valley Elites Get Home Loans With No Money Down Bloomberg It turns out that even the well-off need help in a housing market as crazy as the one in the San Francisco Bay area, and lenders are elbowing each other in a rush to provide it. They're courting Silicon Valley workers with tailored loans, guaranteed 24 ... and more »
  • Tue, Jul 26 2016
  • 6:01 PM » Dovish Wall Street Now Sees Just One Rate Hike This Year
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 6:01 PM by CNBC
    The doves have taken flight on Wall Street with expectations for continued easy monetary policy from the Federal Reserve soaring to new heights. "Brexit will keep the Fed from acting next week, and given the Fed's proclivity to keep rates unchanged before a U.S. presidential election, we won't see a rate hike until December at the earliest," Rob Morgan, chief...
  • 5:52 PM » Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for June 2016
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 5:52 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Issues Monthly Volume Summary for June 2016
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 5:51 PM » Fannie Mae Enhances HomeReady Mortgage to Expand Access to Credit for Eligible Borrowers
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 5:51 PM by Fannie Mae
    Fannie Mae announced enhancements to HomeReady, the affordable mortgage option designed to meet the diverse needs of today's borrowers.
  • 4:20 PM » Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 4:20 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in May The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In May, the index was up 5.0% YoY. In the earlier post , I graphed nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $275,000 today adjusted for inflation (37%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). It has been almost ten years since the bubble peak.  In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the National Index was reported as being 2.8% below the bubble peak.    However, in real terms, the National index is still about 17.1% below the bubble peak. Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA, and the CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through May) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to November 2005 levels, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to June 2005 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to June 2005. Real House Prices The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. CPI less Shelter has declined over the last two years pushing up real house prices. In real terms, the National index is back to January 2004 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to October 2003, and the CoreLogic index back to November 2003. In real terms, house prices are back to late 2003 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:15 PM » Why Aren't More New Homes Selling When Demand Is Soaring?
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 2:15 PM by www.realtor.com
    Despite the hordes of buyers hoping to take advantage of low mortgage interest rates, builders still aren't putting up enough new homes to meet the demand. The post Why Aren’t More New Homes Selling When Demand Is Soaring? appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - realtor.com .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:13 PM » El-Erian: Market Too Complacent About Fed Rates
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 1:13 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg El-Erian: Market Too Complacent About Fed Rates Bloomberg Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, discusses his expectations for what we'll hear from the Federal Reserve, Fed influence over markets, and the disconnect between markets and fundamentals. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (El-Erian ... and more »
  • 12:22 PM » A few Comments on June New Home Sales
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 12:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The new home sales report for June was strong at 592,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) - the highest since early 2008 - and combined sales for March, April and May were revised up by 22 thousand SAAR. Sales were up 25.4% year-over-year (YoY) compared to June 2015. And sales are up 10.1% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2015. Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 592,000 Annual Rate in June, Highest since 2008 . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows new home sales for 2015 and 2016 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Sales to date are up 10.1% year-over-year, mostly because of the solid growth in Q2. There will probably be solid year-over-year growth in Q3 this year too. Overall   I expected lower growth this year , in the 4% to 8% range.  Slower growth seemed likely this year because  Houston (and other oil producing areas) will have a problem this year . And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years. The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through June 2016. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly steady back to the '60s. Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales. I expect existing home sales to move more sideways, and I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales. However, this assumes that the builders will offer some smaller, less expensive homes. If not, then the gap will persist. Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:28 AM » U.S. new home sales rise to near eight-and-a-half year high in June
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 10:28 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. single-family home sales rose more than expected in June, reaching their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, the latest sign that the housing market was gathering momentum.
  • 9:04 AM » Black Knight's First Look at June Mortgage Data
    Published Tue, Jul 26 2016 9:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Black Knight: Black Knight Financial Services' First Look at June Mortgage Data: Foreclosure Starts Up for Second Consecutive Month; Prepays Rise on Historically Low Rates • Despite June's increase, first-time foreclosure starts in Q2 2016 were at their lowest level in over 16 years • Prepayment speeds (historically a good indicator of refinance activity) jumped to a 12-month high, mirroring an overall rise in refinance activity driven by historically low interest rates • Early-stage delinquencies saw a seasonal increase in June, while 90-day delinquencies and foreclosure inventories continued to decline According to Black Knight's First Look report for June, the percent of loans delinquent increased 1.3% in June compared to May, and declined 10.0% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2.6% in June and were down 29.4% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.31% in June, up from 4.25% in May. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in June to 1.10%. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 237,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 231,000 properties year-over-year. Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for June in early August. Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   June 2016 May 2016 June 2015 June 2014 Delinquent 4.31% 4.25% 4.79% 5.71% In Foreclosure 1.10% 1.13% 1.56% 2.00% Number of properties: Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure: 2,178,000 2,153,000 2,415,000 2,876,000 Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 558,000 574,000 789,000 1,006,000 Total Properties 2,736,000 2,727,000 3,204,000 3,882,000
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.37%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.72%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.50%
MBS Prices:
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-23 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 112-03 (-0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 0.51%
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  • Purchase Index 0.38%