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  • Fri, Jul 2 2021
  • 2:22 PM » Trade Deficit Increased to $71.2 Billion in May
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 2:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.2 billion in May, up $2.2 billion from $69.1 billion in April, revised. May exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports were $277.3 billion, $3.5 billion more than April imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Exports and imports increased in May. Exports are up 41% compared to May 2020; imports are up 38% compared to May 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports  more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero. The trade deficit with China decreased to $26.3 billion in May, from $26.9 billion in May 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:52 PM » Q2 GDP Forecasts: Revised Down, under 10%
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 1:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From BofA: The construction spending data sliced another 0.5pp from 2Q GDP tracking, leaving us at a still impressive 9.5% qoq saar . [July 2 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8.5% (qoq ar) . [July 2 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 3.9% for 2021:Q3. [July 2 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.8 percent on July 2, down from 8.6 percent on July 1. [July 2 estimate]
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:51 AM » Mortgage servicers brace for fallout as Covid bailout comes to an end
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 11:51 AM by CNBC
    The nation's mortgage servicers are gearing up for the biggest wave of delinquent loans since the subprime mortgage crisis, but they say they are ready.
  • 11:28 AM » June Vehicles Sales Decreased Sharply to 15.36 Million SAAR
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 11:28 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 15.36 million SAAR in June 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 9.8% from the May sales rate, and up 18% from June 2020.  This was well below the consensus estimate of 17.1 million SAAR. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for June (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. Since April 2020, sales have increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  Sales-to-date are down 1.3% compared to the same period in 2019. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 15.36 million SAAR. Sales in June were likely impacted by supply issues.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:44 AM » U.S. adds 850,000 jobs in June, better than expected
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 8:44 AM by CNBC
    Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 706,000 in June while the unemployment rate was forecast to fall to 5.6%.
  • 8:08 AM » 10-year Treasury yield dips below 1.45% ahead of June jobs report
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 8:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields dipped early on Friday, despite anticipation over a key jobs report, due out later in the morning.
  • 8:07 AM » Manhattan real estate prices reach record as buying 'frenzy' takes hold
    Published Fri, Jul 02 2021 8:07 AM by CNBC
    The price jumps and shrinking inventory suggest the Manhattan real estate rebound is continuing to gain momentum.
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