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  • Fri, Jun 18 2021
  • 3:26 PM » The Housing Conundrum
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 3:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    I've seen several housing booms and busts in my life. The biggest boom was the housing bubble in the mid-'00s, and the worst bust followed the bubble. Booms and bust have always been frequent in real estate. My Spidey senses are tingling again, however it isn't obvious why this time - or what the outcome will be. In general, demographics are very favorable for home buying. In Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift , I presented these graphs: Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the longer term trend for three key age groups: 20 to 29, 25 to 34, and 30 to 39 (the groups overlap). This graph is from 1990 to 2060 (all data from BLS: current to 2060 is projected). We can see the surge in the 20 to 29 age group last decade (red).  Once this group exceeded the peak in earlier periods, there was an increase in apartment construction.  This age group peaked in 2018 / 2019 (until the 2030s), and the 25 to 34 age group (orange, dashed) will peak around 2023.   For buying, the 30 to 39 age group (blue) is important (note: see Demographics and Behavior for some reasons for changing behavior).  The population in this age group is increasing, and will increase further over this decade. The current demographics are now very favorable for home buying - and will remain positive for most of the decade. And on the supply side for demographics: This graph shows the longer term trend for two key age groups: 60 to 79, and 80+. This graph is from 2010 to 2060 (all data from BLS: current to 2060 is projected). The next big housing shift will be when the Baby Boom generation starts to downsize and move to retirement communities. No cohort is monolithic - some people will age-in-place until they pass away, others will move in with family (or family will move in with their parents), and some will move to retirement communities. There is no magic age that people reach and start to transition, but looking at prior generations...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:22 PM » Investors juggle Fed forecast and post-pandemic recovery as Wall Street dips
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 2:22 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street was down and the dollar surged on Friday as investors tried to balance a seemingly more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve with persistent optimism about the U.S. economy as it emerges from the pandemic.
  • 1:31 PM » Invitation Homes CEO says he's not worried about a housing bubble despite price spikes. Here's why
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 1:31 PM by CNBC
    "I would expect that home prices stay relatively stable, if not continue to grow in value," Invitation Homes CEO Dallas Tanner told CNBC.
  • 12:55 PM » Indiana Real Estate in May: Sales Up 25% YoY, Inventory Down 48% YoY
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 12:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy.  For for the entire state Indiana: Closed sales in May 2021 were 8,470, up 24.8% from 6,789 in May 2020. Active Listings in May 2021 were 6,559, down 48.2% from 12,656 in May 2020. Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in May 2021, compared to 1.7 Months in May 2020. Inventory in May was up 4.9% from last month.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:44 AM » The Fed will continue to dominate the market in the week ahead after sell-off
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 11:44 AM by CNBC
    The Fed's signal that it is looking to step away from its easy policy is expected to be a dominant trading theme in the week ahead and the rest of the summer.
  • 9:56 AM » Fed's Jim Bullard sees first interest rate hike coming as soon as 2022
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 9:56 AM by CNBC
    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he sees an initial interest rate increase happening in 2022 as inflation picks up.
  • 8:07 AM » Treasury yields ebb lower as investors shake off Fed policy update
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 8:07 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields ebbed lower on Friday morning, as investors continued to shake off the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn in its latest policy update.
  • 8:06 AM » Explaining the volatile stock and bond market moves this week following the Fed's update
    Published Fri, Jun 18 2021 8:06 AM by CNBC
    The Fed unleashed a huge repositioning in markets, as investor reacted to a world where the central bank no longer guarantees its policies will remain easy.
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More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.01%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.45%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.09%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-28 (-0-10)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 109-24 (-0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-12 (-0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 2.79%
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  • Refinance Index 3.16%
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  • Purchase Index 1.82%