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  • Thu, Jun 10 2021
  • 4:24 PM » U.S. Treasury's Yellen says Congress needs to fund debt relief programs
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 4:24 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Thursday that debt relief for poor and developing countries would be hampered without new funding, while $2.7 billion in current unmet U.S. commitments to the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and other institutions would grow.
  • 2:39 PM » Republicans see progress in bipartisan U.S. infrastructure talks
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 2:39 PM by Reuters
    Republican members of a bipartisan group trying to forge a new deal to boost U.S. infrastructure reported some progress on Thursday after their Senate leader Mitch McConnell told them he was open to such a plan.
  • 2:39 PM » 'Worst' of inflation seen likely this summer, easing in fall: U.S. official
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 2:39 PM by Reuters
    U.S. consumer prices are likely to peak this summer and then begin to dissipate in the autumn, an official with the Biden administration said on Thursday, after news that the consumer price index increased again - by 0.6% - last month.
  • 1:15 PM » Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $5.0 Trillion in Q1
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 1:15 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2021 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $136.9 trillion during the first quarter of 2021. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $3.2 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.0 trillion. Household debt increased 6.5 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2021. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 5.4 percent. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.   With the sharp decline in GDP in Q2, net worth as a percent of GDP increased sharply.  This reversed somewhat in Q3 as GDP bounced back (even as net worth increased).   But now net worth as a percent of GDP is at an all time high. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q1 2021, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 67.3% - up from 66.7% in Q4. Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have less than 67.3% equity - and about 1.4 million homeowners still have negative equity . The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $117 billion in Q1. Mortgage debt is still down from the peak during the housing bubble, and, as a percent of GDP is at 50.0% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:56 AM » Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Increased in May
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 11:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in May. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for May  here . Car and truck rental was up 294% annualized! Used cars and trucks were up 132% annualized. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.1%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.6%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.8%. Core PCE is for April and increased 3.1% year-over-year. Note: We saw negative Month-to-month (MoM) core CPI and CPI readings in March, April and May 2020.  We also saw negative MoM PCE and core PCE reading in March and April 2020.  Although inflation picked up in April and May this year, the year-over-year change was impacted by the base effect (decline last year).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:12 AM » Goldman CFO says inflation likely transitory but a sharp rise would have ‘negative consequences'
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 11:12 AM by CNBC
    A sustained spike in inflation would have "negative consequences" for markets and major banks, according Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Stephen Scherr.
  • 11:11 AM » Mortgage Lenders' Profitability Outlook Tightens Further Following 2020 Refi Boom
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 11:11 AM by Fannie Mae
    For the third consecutive quarter, an increased share of mortgage lenders expect profit margins to retreat further from last year's highs, according to Fannie Mae's Q2 2021 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey®.
  • 11:11 AM » Growth in Mortgage-Rate Locks For Second Homes Dropped to Pre-Pandemic Levels in May
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 11:11 AM by www.redfin.com
    Though mortgage-rate locks for second homes were up nearly 50% year over year in May, the growth rate is returning to pre-pandemic levels as high prices and tighter lending rules make vacation-home buyers think twice. The number of buyers who locked in mortgage rates to purchase a second home nationwide rose 48% year over year
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 11:11 AM » CoreLogic: 1.4 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q1 2021
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 11:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoreLogic: Nationwide Homeowner Equity Gains Hit $1.9 Trillion in Q1 2021, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the first quarter of 2021. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 19.6% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $1.9 trillion, and an average gain of $33,400 per borrower, since the first quarter of 2020. While the coronavirus pandemic created economic uncertainty for many, the continued acceleration in home prices over the last year has meant existing homeowners saw a notable boost in home equity. The accumulation of equity has become critically important to homeowners deciding on their post-forbearance options. In contrast to the financial crisis, when many borrowers were underwater, borrowers today who are behind on mortgage payments can tap into their equity and sell their home rather than lose it through foreclosure. These conditions are reflected in a recent CoreLogic survey, with 74% of current homeowners with mortgages noting they are not concerned with owing more on their home than it is worth within the next five years. "Homeowner equity has more than doubled over the past decade and become a crucial buffer for many weathering the challenges of the pandemic," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "These gains have become an important financial tool and boosted consumer confidence in the U.S. housing market, especially for older homeowners and baby boomers who've experienced years of price appreciation." "Double-digit home price growth in the past year has bolstered home equity to a record amount. The national CoreLogic Home Price Index recorded an 11.4% rise in the year through March 2021, leading to a $216,000 increase in the average amount of equity held by homeowners with a mortgage," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:27 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 376,000
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 9:27 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending June 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 376,000 , a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 385,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,500, a decrease of 25,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 428,000. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. emphasis added This does not include the 71,292 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 73,249 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 402,500. The previous week was unrevised. Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,499,000 (SA) from 3,757,000 (SA) the previous week. Note: There are an additional 6,347,472 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,360,202 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,231,952 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,301,821. Weekly claims were at the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:27 AM » Homeowners got $2 trillion richer during the first three months of the year
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 9:27 AM by CNBC
    Home prices have been soaring, so homeowners have been getting richer, at least on paper. The equity numbers are staggering.
  • 9:21 AM » Lagarde comments at ECB press conference
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 9:21 AM by Reuters
    The European Central Bank maintained an elevated flow of stimulus as expected on Thursday, fearing that any retreat now would accelerate an already worrisome rise in borrowing costs and choke off the fledgling recovery.
  • 8:38 AM » Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 8:38 AM by CNBC
    Consumer prices jump 5% in May, fastest pace since the summer of 2008<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/10/cpi-may-2021.html
  • 8:27 AM » Euro zone yields stay near lows as ECB keeps taps flowing
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 8:27 AM by Reuters
    Euro zone yields stay near lows as ECB keeps taps flowing
  • 8:04 AM » 10-year Treasury yield is flat ahead of key inflation report
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly early on Thursday but remained below 1.5%, with key inflation data due out later in the morning.
  • 8:04 AM » G-20 GDP returns to pre-pandemic levels, with China seeing a massive rebound
    Published Thu, Jun 10 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The Group of 20 economies saw gross domestic product return to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021.
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