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  • Mon, Mar 22 2021
  • 4:36 PM » MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.05%"
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 4:36 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This is as of March 14th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.05% The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 9 basis points from 5.14% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.05% as of March 14, 2021. According to MBA's estimate, 2.5 million homeowners are in forbearance plans . ... "New forbearance requests decreased to their lowest level since last March. Combined with a steady pace of exits, this drop in new requests resulted in a larger decline in the share of loans in forbearance across all investor categories," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "More than 11 percent of borrowers in forbearance have now exceeded the 12-month mark. We anticipate that servicers will be busy over the next month, with many homeowners opting for the extension for up to 18 months recently made available for federally-backed loans." Fratantoni added, "The pace of economic activity is picking up as the vaccine rollout continues. We expect that a stronger job market will help many successfully exit forbearance in the months ahead." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.07% to 0.05%, the lowest level since the week ending March 15, 2020."
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:27 PM » Housing Inventory March 22nd Update: At Record Lows
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 3:27 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    One of the key questions for 2021 is: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2021? Tracking inventory will be very important this year . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research . As of March 19th, inventory was at 316 thousand (7 day average), compared to 738 thousand the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 57%. A week ago, inventory was at 317 thousand, and was down 57% YoY.  Seasonally, inventory should bottom soon. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:25 PM » White House: Report that Biden may spend $3 trillion is premature
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 3:25 PM by Reuters
    The White House said a New York Times report that said U.S. President Joe Biden will consider spending $3 trillion for infrastructure and other priorities is premature and does not reflect White House thinking.
  • 12:30 PM » Fed's Barkin says economy still short of bar for QE taper
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 12:30 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) -Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Monday said he doesn't believe the U.S. economy is anywhere near the bar the central bank set before it will begin to even consider pulling back on its bond-buying program.
  • 11:25 AM » Powell calls cryptocurrencies 'not really useful stores of value' and says Fed will move slowly
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 11:25 AM by CNBC
    Powell said Monday that cryptocurrencies remain an unstable store of value and the central bank is no hurry to introduce a competitor.
  • 10:24 AM » Powell says the Fed remains committed to using all its tools to promote recovery
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:24 AM by CNBC
    Powell reiterated his commitment to an "all-in" approach, pledging in a commentary for the Wall Street Journal to keep policy loose.
  • 10:23 AM » Why the Fed is not fazed by higher rates … yet
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:23 AM by CNBC
    PGIM Fixed Income chief economist Nathan Sheets says the Federal Reserve sees higher rates as a positive development for now.
  • 10:22 AM » Severe Weather in February Temporarily Dampens the Pace of Recovery
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:22 AM by Fannie Mae
    Economic and Housing Weekly Note - March 19, 2021
  • 10:21 AM » Indiana Real Estate in February: Sales Up 6% YoY, Inventory Down 56% YoY
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows. For for the entire state Indiana: Closed sales in February 2021 were 5,753, up 5.7% from 5,444 in February 2020. Active Listings in February 2021 were 6,028, down 56.1% from 13,739 in February 2020. Months of Supply was 0.7 Months in February 2021, compared to 1.8 Months in February 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » Rhode Island Real Estate in February: Sales Up 4% YoY, Inventory Down 49% YoY
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I'm posting data for many local markets around the U.S. The story is the same everywhere ... inventory is at record lows. For for the entire state Rhode Island: Closed sales (single family and condos) in February 2021 were 776, up 4.2% from 745 in February 2020. Active Listings (single family and condos)  in February 2021 were 1,569, down 48.5% from 3,046 in February 2020.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » China's monetary policy is shifting more quickly than it did after the 2008 financial crisis
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:20 AM by CNBC
    China is pulling back support for the economy more quickly than it did following the 2008 financial crisis, according to Allianz.
  • 10:20 AM » Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 64% YoY in January
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Continued COVID impacts and the resulting absence of conventions and major tradeshows such as CES, World of Concrete, etc., translated to significant YoY declines in Jan visitation, occupancy and ADR. Las Vegas hosted roughly 1.3M visitors in Jan 2021, down -63.5% YoY. Total occupancy for Jan improved MoM to 31.6% from 30.9% in Dec but was down from 85.9% in Jan 2020. While Weekend occupancy (48.3%) improved slightly MoM over Dec 2020, the temporarily dormant convention segment resulted in Midweek occupancy at 22.5%, down -61.3 pts YoY. Average daily rates among open properties reached $90.71 (down -40.9% YoY) while RevPAR came in at approx. $28.66, down -78% vs. Jan 2020. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red). Visitor traffic was down 63.5% year-over-year. The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 97% of rooms have now opened). Convention traffic was non-existent again in January, and was down 100% compared to January 2020. There has been no convention traffic since March 2020.    I'll add a graph of convention traffic once conventions start to reopen.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » Housing: Active Inventory down around 50% YoY
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Yesterday I posted Some thoughts on Housing Inventory . I noted: "It is likely the NAR [National Association of Realtors®] is overstating inventory since many MLSs include pending in the number of listings (as opposed to just active listings)." Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me the following graph. This shows the YoY change in inventory for Realtor.com (with and without pending sales), and the YoY change in inventory from the NAR. Click on graph for larger image. This shows that the NAR report is similar to  Realtor.com including pending sales.  While the NAR is reporting inventory was down 25.7% in January, other measures - that track active inventory - show inventory is down around 50% year-over-year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:20 AM » All-Cash Offers Quadruple a Homebuyer's Chances of Winning a Bidding War
    Published Mon, Mar 22 2021 10:20 AM by www.redfin.com
    All-cash offers are most likely to improve a buyers' odds of winning a bidding war, followed by waiving the financing contingency, according to Redfin data. Prospective homebuyers who offer all cash nearly quadruple their chances of winning a bidding war, making it the most effective strategy tracked by Redfin to win a home in a
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
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