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  • Fri, Jul 31 2020
  • 5:05 PM » Can Portland's Hot Housing Market Survive the Pandemic and the Protests?
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 5:05 PM by
    Can the housing market in Portland, OR, particularly downtown, survive the combination of the coronavirus and the charged social justice protests? The post Can Portland’s Hot Housing Market Survive the Pandemic and the Protests? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 5:04 PM » A surge in evictions could turn into financial crisis, economist warns
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 5:04 PM by CNBC
    "This really could be catastrophic, and it extends beyond just the rental industry," said Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree.
  • 5:04 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Sharply in June
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 5:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 2.65% in June, from 0.89% in May. The serious delinquency rate is up from 0.70% in June 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since July 2013. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 5.00% are seriously delinquent (up from 3.09% in May). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (3% of portfolio), 8.37% are seriously delinquent (up from 5.22%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), only 2.21% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.53%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. With COVID-19, this rate will increase further in July (it takes time since these are mortgages three months or more past due). Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus. This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed. Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:25 PM » Earnings: Housing is on fire, but apparel and restaurants are struggling
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 2:25 PM by CNBC
    Earnings season may appear to be going well, but beyond Big Tech and some other obvious winners, many companies are struggling.
  • 2:25 PM » Comparing US, EU and China GDP
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 2:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    With the sharp GDP decline in Q2, there have been several comparisons of US numbers to other regions of the world. First, it is important to understand: The US reports GDP on a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) annualized basis. The EU reports GDP on a QoQ basis (not annualized). China reports GDP on a year-over-year (YoY) basis. So the US reported that GDP declined 32.9% in Q2 annualized, the EU reported GDP declined 11.9% in Q2, and China reported GDP increased 3.2% YoY in Q2 (China's big hit was in Q1). This is just how the data is reported.   There is no conspiracy to make the US look bad in Q2, or look good in Q3. If we want to compare the US to the EU, we need to convert one of the numbers.   For example, a 32.9% annualized decline is a 9.5% decline QoQ (not annualized). So we would compare a -9.5% in the US to -11.9% in the EU.  Both were terrible, but also necessary to "bend the curve" and suppress the virus, and the EU decline in GDP was worse. However, the EU did a much better job of suppressing the virus, and the economic recovery in the EU will probably be better.   As Dr. Fauci noted today (from CNN): "If you look at what happened in Europe, when they shut down or locked down or went to shelter in place - however you want to describe it - they really did it to the tune of about 95% plus of the country did that," Fauci said. However, "when you actually look at what we did, even though we shut down, even though it created a great deal of difficulty, we really functionally shut down only about 50% in the sense of the totality of the country," Fauci added. It will be interesting in Q3 to compare the bounce back. My guess is the EU will do better in Q3 since they did a better job of controlling the virus. Click on graph for larger image. There will be a sharp increase in GDP in Q3 in both the US and the EU. This graph shows monthly real personal consumption expenditures...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:18 PM » $600 unemployment booster isn't primary reason people do or do not work: Yale economists
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 1:18 PM by CNBC
    The $600 unemployment booster provided as part of the first coronavirus stimulus is not the primary reason people do or do not work, a study from Yale economists shows. That said, some small business owners report their employees make more money on unemployment and opt not to work because of it.
  • 12:35 PM » Early Q3 GDP Forecasts
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 12:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Also, even if activity is flat in Q3 compared to June, GDP will show a significant increase in Q3 over Q2 because of the sharp decline in April. From Merrill Lynch: We look for GDP to grow by 15.0% qoq saar in 3Q . We forecast a contraction of -5.7% in 2020, followed by a 2.8% rebound 2021. [July 31 estimate] emphasis added And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 11.9 percent on July 31. On July 30, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth as -32.9 percent, 0.8 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 29. [July 31 estimate]
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:55 AM » What to do if you're at risk of eviction now that the CARES Act moratorium has ended
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 11:55 AM by CNBC
    If you're facing eviction during the pandemic, you're definitely not alone. Follow these steps.
  • 10:25 AM » Multiple Offers For Homes on the Market Are Becoming More Common
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 10:25 AM by
    An earlier post revealed that 59% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the second quarter of 2020 have spent upwards of 3 months searching for a home without success. Although the top reason long-time searchers haven't pulled the trigger continues to be the inability to find an affordable home (39%), that share... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:45 AM » Condo Prices Down 1.4% in June, Sales Down 31%, But Demand Is Ticking Up
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 9:45 AM by
    Homebuyer interest in condos dropped with the coronavirus pandemic along with prices, but buyers seeking affordable living are starting to return. The post Condo Prices Down 1.4% in June, Sales Down 31%, But Demand Is Ticking Up appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:45 AM » Personal Income decreased 1.1% in June, Spending increased 5.6%
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 9:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion (5.6 percent). Real DPI decreased 1.8 percent in June and Real PCE increased 5.2 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. The June PCE price index increased 0.8 percent year-over-year and the June PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.9 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was less than expected,  and the increase in PCE was at expectations. This graph illustrates why reported GDP will increase in Q3.  Note the red line for Q2 (the quarterly level of PCE).   Even if PCE stayed at the June level in Q3, there would be a significant increase in Q3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:24 AM » UK PM Boris Johnson postpones easing of coronavirus lockdown measures in England
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 8:24 AM by CNBC
    The move comes after the government imposed restrictions across swathes of northern England following a rise in the rate of transmissions.
  • 8:12 AM » Coronavirus live updates: U.S. cases jump by 67,000; Sanofi, GSK nab $2.1 billion in vaccine deal
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 8:12 AM by CNBC
    The coronavirus has infected more than 17.3 million people around the world as of Friday, killing at least 673,822 people.
  • 8:02 AM » 10-year Treasury yield falls close to 0.52% after record GDP contraction
    Published Fri, Jul 31 2020 8:02 AM by CNBC
    Treasury yields continued to move lower on Friday morning after a week where the Federal Reserve iterated a dovish message and held rates, and new data showed the U.S. economy shrank at a record pace.
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Recent Housing Data:
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