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  • Wed, Jul 22 2020
  • 3:56 PM » Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on US economic outlook: `We're in for a very bumpy ride'
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 3:56 PM by CNBC
    While there has been an uptick in economic activity since the early weeks of the pandemic, a continuing surge in cases has forced several states to halt or reverse their reopening plans
  • 3:41 PM » AIA: "Architecture billings remain in negative territory, begin to stabilize"
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 3:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.  From the AIA: Architecture billings remain in negative territory, begin to stabilize Demand for design services from architecture firms began to stabilize in June, following their peak declines in April, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for June was 40.0 compared to 32.0 in May . The May ABI score indicates that a significant share of architecture firms still saw their billings decline from May to June , however the share reporting declines slowed significantly. Index scores for new project inquiries and new design contracts also showed signs of stabilizing, posting scores of 49.3 and 44.0 respectively. "While business conditions remained soft at firms across the country, those with a multifamily residential specialization saw the most positive signs," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "Unfortunately, conditions at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization are likely to remain weak for an extended period of time , until hospitality, office and retail facilities can fully reopen, and design demand for this space begins to increase." ... • Regional averages [3 month average]: Midwest (36.8); West (36.8); South (35.9); Northeast (34.2) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (44.7); institutional (38.9); mixed practice (35.3); commercial/industrial (30.1) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 40.0 in June, up from 32.0 in May. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This represents a significant decrease in design services...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:05 PM » Comments on June Existing Home Sales
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 1:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.72 million in June A few key points: 1) Existing home sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the June report was mostly for contracts signed in April and May.  Some of the increase this month was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April.   I expect a further increase in sales in July (July will be mostly contracts signed in May and June when the economy was much more open).   However, with the high unemployment rate - and the recent surge in COVID infections, housing might be under some pressure later this year.  That is difficult to predict and depends on the course of the pandemic. 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 18.2% year-over-year (YoY) in June. This is the lowest level of inventory for June since at least the early 1990s. 3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler was closer to the actual NAR report than the consensus forecast. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020. Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, sales to date are only down about 8% compared to the same period in 2019. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019. Sales NSA in June (510,000) were 3.4% below sales last year in June (528,000).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:05 PM » Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder says cutting government aid would be a 'catastrophic mistake'
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 12:05 PM by CNBC
    Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder said Wednesday that cutting government aid would be a "catastrophic mistake."
  • 12:05 PM » Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 26.4% Missed or Expect to Miss Rent or Mortgage Payment
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 12:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    First, from @ernietedeschi Employment in the @uscensusbureau Household Pulse Survey fell by -4.1 million last week alone. That's a cumulative loss of -6.7 million jobs between the reference weeks used for the June & July monthly jobs report. Seasonality and survey noise may be factors here -- the HPS is a new, experimental survey with limited history. However it also did an admirable job of predicting the strong employment growth in June. This graph is from Ernie Tedeschi (former US Treasury economist). CR Note on above graph: The Pulse Survey doesn't align exactly with the BLS reference week. The release today is for July 9th - July 14th, and the release next week will be for the period July 16th - July 21th. The BLS reference week is the 12th - 18th. Also note on the question below on lost income is always since March 13, 2020 - so this percentage will not decline - but might increase. From the Census Bureau: Measuring Household Experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic The U.S. Census Bureau, in collaboration with five federal agencies, is in a unique position to produce data on the social and economic effects of COVID-19 on American households. The Household Pulse Survey is designed to deploy quickly and efficiently, collecting data to measure household experiences during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Data will be disseminated in near real-time to inform federal and state response and recovery planning. Data collection for the Household Pulse Survey began on April 23, 2020. The Census Bureau will collect data for 90 days, and release data on a weekly basis. This will be updated weekly, and the Census Bureau released the recent survey results today. This survey asks about Loss in Employment Income, Expected Loss in Employment Income, Food Scarcity, Delayed Medical Care, Housing Insecurity and K-12 Educational Changes. Click on graph for larger image. The data was collected between July 9 and July 14, 2020. Definitions: Loss in employment...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:37 AM » Existing home sales surge nearly 21% in June – the highest monthly gain on record
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 10:37 AM by CNBC
    The increase came after sharp declines over the previous three months due to the coronavirus pandemic. Sales were still 11.3% lower annually.
  • 9:33 AM » Affordable Housing Credit Beneficiaries: 2020 Update
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 9:33 AM by
    The affordable housing credit (the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit or LIHTC) plays a critical role in the housing sector by ensuring a supply of attainable rental housing. Created as part of the 1986 tax reform legislation, the LIHTC has been responsible for financing the development or preservation of more than 3.2 million rental homes. Moreover, the housing credit has been... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:04 AM » U.S. orders China to shut Houston consulate in move China calls 'unprecedented escalation'
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 9:04 AM by Reuters
    U.S. orders China to shut Houston consulate in move China calls 'unprecedented escalation'
  • 8:03 AM » Buying your first home may cost more than you think. Here's what to expect
    Published Wed, Jul 22 2020 8:03 AM by CNBC
    If you were thinking of taking advantage of low mortgage rates and buying a home, first make sure you know what you can afford.
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.18%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.57%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.14%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-02 (-0-05)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 109-26 (-0-10)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-24 (-0-05)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 2.79%
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  • Refinance Index 3.16%
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  • Purchase Index 1.82%