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  • Mon, Jun 29 2020
  • 5:01 PM » MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 8.47%" of Portfolio Volume
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 5:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: To put these numbers in perspective, the MBA notes "For the week of March 2, only 0.25% of all loans were in forbearance." From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 8.47% The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 8.48% of servicers' portfolio volume in the prior week to 8.47% as of June 21, 2020. According to MBA's estimate, 4.2 million homeowners are in forbearance plan s. ... "The overall share of loans in forbearance declined for the second week in a row, led by the third straight drop in GSE loans," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Many borrowers initially received a three-month forbearance term, and as of June 21, 17 percent of loans in forbearance have now been extended, with the largest share of those being Ginnie Mae loans." Added Fratantoni, "The level of forbearance requests remains quite low as of mid-June. The rebound in the housing market is likely one of the factors that is providing confidence to both potential homebuyers and existing homeowners during these troubled times." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April. The MBA notes: "Forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased across all investor types: from 0.15% to 0.14%."
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 5:00 PM » Powell says recovery path is 'extraordinarily uncertain' amid efforts to control virus
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 5:00 PM by CNBC
    Powell says recovery path is 'extraordinarily uncertain' amid efforts to control virus<br/>
  • 3:49 PM » Millions of American Homes at Greater Flood Risk Than Government Estimates, New Study Says
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 3:49 PM by
    Nearly six million properties across the U.S. have a substantial risk of flooding that isn't disclosed by federal flood maps, according to a nonprofit research firm. The post Millions of American Homes at Greater Flood Risk Than Government Estimates, New Study Says appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:03 PM » Update: Framing Lumber Future Prices Up Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 2:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined sharply from the record highs in early 2018, and then increased until the COVID-19 crisis. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through June 26, 2020 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are up 36% from a year ago, and CME futures are up 14% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Prices fell sharply due to COVID-19, however prices have bounced back (Note: Construction was considered an essential activity in many areas, so construction didn't decline as much as some other sectors).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:28 PM » More states reverse or slow reopening plans as coronavirus cases climb
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 1:28 PM by CNBC
    The number of new Covid-19 cases per day in the U.S. jumped 42% over the past week to an average of about 38,200 on Sunday, based on a seven-day moving average.
  • 1:26 PM » Nearly half the U.S. population is without a job, showing how far the labor recovery has to go
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 1:26 PM by CNBC
    "To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs," said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank's chief economist.
  • 11:22 AM » Supreme Court leaves CFPB intact but backs president's ability to fire director
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 11:22 AM by CNBC
    Supreme Court leaves CFPB intact but backs president's ability to fire director<br/>
  • 8:46 AM » Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 8:46 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will probably recover very slowly. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers . Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). On June 28th there were 633,810 travelers compared to 2,632,030 a year ago. That is a decline of 76%. There has been a slow steady increase from the bottom, but air travel is still down significantly. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data: This data is updated through June 27, 2020. The spike in diners was for Father's Day, June 21st.  If there is an increase in cases due to Father's Day dining, they will show up in the data approximately two to weeks after the event (the second week in July). This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Note that this data is for " only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". New York is still off 82%. Florida is only down 49% YoY (declining from a week ago, probably due to the recent surge in COVID cases). This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 25th. Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released. Movie ticket sales have picked up a little, but are still under $1 million per week (compared to usually around $300 million per week), and ticket sales have essentially been at zero for fourteen weeks. Most  movie theaters are closed all across the country, and will...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:23 AM » ECB could boost bond buying by another trillion euros, economist projects
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 8:23 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank (ECB) could expand its bond-buying program by a further 1 trillion euros ($1.12 trillion) over the next two to three years as inflation takes center stage, according to Berenberg European Economist Florian Hense.
  • 8:03 AM » Additional Disaster Relief
    Published Mon, Jun 29 2020 8:03 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    It is time for additional disaster relief. The key proposals will likely include: 1. Extension of Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC). The current amount is $600 per week for those receiving unemployment benefits, in addition to the state benefits. This expires at the end of July.   This might be reduced to $400 per week (or a percentage of state benefits). This will probably be extended through the election in November (Ideally the extension period would not be calendar based, but determined by the state unemployment rate).   This is critical, or we will see a significant slump in spending in August, and a sharp increase in delinquencies (rents, mortgages, credit cards, etc). 2. State government relief: It is time for a substantial state relief package. Without relief, the states and local governments will have to start laying off a significant number of employees (Don't be fooled by state and local government hiring in the June employment report - that will be due to a seasonal adjustment quirk ).   State governments will have no choice - they have to run a balanced budget. 3. Recent Graduate Program: There are few job opportunities for people graduating from high school or college this year. These people should be immediately eligible for unemployment benefits (or maybe hired as contact tracers!). 4. Expand the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP): This program has kept many small businesses alive, and millions of employees employed. There will have to be additional disaster relief for these companies, or millions of people will be let go soon. Even with all this disaster relief, there will be significant structural damage to the economy even with an effective treatment and/or vaccine at the end of the year or in early 2021. We need to start thinking about how to put people back to work in 2021 so we don't have an extended period with excessive unemployment.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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