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  • Wed, Mar 25 2020
  • 5:27 PM » U.S. Senate close to passing $2 trillion in coronavirus aid, timing of vote unclear
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 5:27 PM by Reuters
    U.S. senators will vote on Wednesday on a $2 trillion bipartisan package of legislation to alleviate the devastating economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, hoping it will become law quickly.
  • 5:24 PM » Stay-at-Home Orders Slow the Market Down Significantly
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 5:24 PM by
    Since our last update on March 18, Redfin's home-buying demand has slowed notably, with 27% fewer customers requesting to see homes over the past seven days than the same time last year. Last week, home-buying demand was still up 1% compared to the prior year. The slowdown is largely a result of stay-at-home orders having … Stay-at-Home Orders Slow the Market Down Significantly Read More » The post Stay-at-Home Orders Slow the Market Down Significantly appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 5:19 PM » March 25 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day #TestAndTrace
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 5:19 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 to 20,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 130,000 per day. Note: NYC and LA have stopped testing mild cases due to resource constraints. Hopefully testing will continue to improve, and we can test more people - this is important for test-and-trace. The US conducted 74,384 tests in the last 24 hours. Note: About 16% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending). The high percentage of positives indicates limited testing.   For Test-and-trace to be effective, the percent positive would probably be at 5% or less. Click on graph for larger image. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project . Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low. Testing is improving, but needs to still increase significantly from here to be sufficient for test-and-trace. Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:12 PM » Coronavirus slowdown starts to rival Fed's doomsday bank stress test scenario
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 3:12 PM by Reuters
    The unfolding market shock and economic crisis wrought by the coronavirus disruption is shaping up to be a nightmare for the Federal Reserve - literally.
  • 3:10 PM » Survey: Builders Say Coronavirus Hurting Traffic
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 3:10 PM by
    In a survey conducted by NAHB online in recent days, 81 percent of respondents said the coronavirus has had an adverse effect on traffic of prospective buyers. The survey, which was publicized in various internal NAHB communications and social media, collected 308 responses between March 18 and March 23. The largest share of responses (51 percent) came from single-family home... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:37 PM » Jobless claims expected to spike to a record-breaking number in the millions
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 2:37 PM by CNBC
    Anywhere between about 1 million and 4 million people were expected to have filed for unemployment last week, the largest number ever.
  • 2:37 PM » Investors look to 2008 for guidance on when to jump back in
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 2:37 PM by Reuters
    Investment banks are dusting off models from the 2008 financial crisis to gauge the right time to buy back into stock markets that have plunged 30% from their February record highs because of the coronvirus crisis.
  • 11:56 AM » A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 11:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Based on the experiences of other countries, it appears the number of cases per day (and deaths per day) will peak about 2 to 3 weeks after well observed shelter-in-place orders are issued (some areas are reporting less than 2 weeks - that would be great). In some areas of the United States, shelter-in-place orders were issued a week or more ago. In some states and communities, orders have still not been issued. Based on the experience in China, it appears the recovery can start in about 40 days after a national shelter-in-place - if certain rules are in place. So here is a suggested 40-day plan to start recovery : Today: 1. The Federal Government should ask all states to order Shelter-in-place (except for essential workers and businesses).  This starts the clock across the country. 2.  Use the Defense Production Act to increase supply of Personal Protection Equipment (PPE).   We must protect our healthcare workers.  This includes masks, gowns, face shields, and other protective equipment - and also medical equipment, primarily ventilators and ICU beds. 3. Sign Disaster relief fiscal policy into law.   This will help Americans impacted by this national disaster. 4. Name a head of a national Test-and-Trace-and-Quarantine task force.   Start putting in place the necessary manpower and tools to conduct test-and-trace when testing capacity (and sufficient PPE) allows for testing all contacts of anyone who has tested positive.   We can't do this surveillance testing today due to lack of testing capacity and insufficient PPE (the priority for PPE is our healthcare workers and first responders) - but we should be able to do test-and-trace a couple of weeks after the cases-per-day peak.  We must be ready!   We will need people in the field, and software to track contacts, and also software (and manpower) to call those in quarantine twice a day until they test negative twice. Every day: 1. Remind...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:13 AM » Negative rates come to the US: 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields are now negative
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 11:13 AM by CNBC
    Negative rates come to the US: 1-month and 3-month Treasury bill yields are now negative<br/>
  • 10:50 AM » Bullard: 46 million workers could be jobless in short-term
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 10:50 AM by Reuters
    As many as 46 million people in the U.S. may be left jobless in the short term as companies shut down services that have "high contact" with the public during the battle against the coronavirus epidemic, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said on Wednesday.
  • 10:26 AM » Wall Street gains as Washington reaches deal on $2 trillion aid
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 10:26 AM by Reuters
    Wall Street on Wednesday extended its massive bounce from the previous session as Washington reached a deal for a $2 trillion stimulus package to help businesses and millions of Americans hit by the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.
  • 10:13 AM » March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 35% Year-over-year Decline
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 10:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From New Vehicle Sales Drop in March to Close a Down First Quarter in 2020, Edmunds Forecasts The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that March will be a down month for the auto industry due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 1,044,805 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 11.9 million. This reflects a 35.5% decrease in sales from March 2019 and a 23.4% decrease from February 2020. "The first two months of the year started off at a healthy sales pace, but the market took a dramatic turn in mid-March as more cities and states began to implement stay-at-home policies due to the coronavirus crisis, and consumers understandably shifted their focus to other things," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "The whole world is turned upside down right now, and the auto industry is unfortunately not immune to the wide-ranging economic impacts of this unprecedented pandemic." Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Edmunds forecast for March (Red). Note that the low during the great recession was 9.02 million SAAR in February 2009. With the sudden stop in activity, this forecast may be high - and sales will probably be lower in April.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:04 AM » Bernanke says Fed chief Powell 'got ahead of this' and 'going big' was right thing to do
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 9:04 AM by CNBC
    Bernanke says Fed chief Powell 'got ahead of this' and 'going big' was right thing to do<br/>
  • 8:44 AM » Exclusive: ECB's Lagarde asked euro zone ministers to consider one-off 'coronabonds' issue - officials
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 8:44 AM by Reuters
    European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde asked euro zone finance ministers during a videoconference on Tuesday evening to seriously consider a one-off joint debt issue of "coronabonds" to help fight the coronavirus pandemic, four officials said.
  • 8:22 AM » Fed's James Bullard says after a short-term 'unparalleled' shock, economy will boom again
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Fed's James Bullard says after a short-term 'unparalleled' shock, economy will boom again<br/>
  • 8:09 AM » White House not considering three-month tariff deferral, top trade advisor Peter Navarro says
    Published Wed, Mar 25 2020 8:09 AM by CNBC
    The White House's top trade advisor denied on Tuesday that the Trump administration was considering a three-month deferral of tariff payments on imported goods to ease the pain of the economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
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Mortgage Rates:
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.50%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.50%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-12 (-0-06)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 107-30 (0-22)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 109-02 (-0-17)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 15.13%
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  • Refinance Index 25.99%
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  • Purchase Index -2.67%