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  • Thu, Dec 31 2020
  • 1:44 PM » These are the 7 biggest tax changes for 2021 - Yahoo Finance
    Published Thu, Dec 31 2020 1:44 PM by
    These are the 7 biggest tax changes for 2021    Yahoo Finance
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:50 AM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 33.0% Year-over-year, 2020 Worst Year on Record
    Published Thu, Dec 31 2020 10:50 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is the end of the worst year on record for hotel occupancy.   The average weekly occupancy rate was 44.2%, far below the occupancy rate for the previous worst year of 55.0% in 2009.  The normal annual average weekly occupancy rate is around 63%. From STR: US hotel results for week ending 26 December U.S. weekly hotel occupancy fell to its lowest level since early May, according to STR's latest data for the week of Christmas. 20-26 December 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 32.5% (-33.0%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$92.08 (-28.8%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$29.94 (-52.3%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Seasonally we'd expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year, and then, usually, business travel would start to pick up in the new year.  Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate - see graph above - we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This suggests no improvement over the last several months. Week Ending YoY Change, Occupancy Rate 9/19 -31.9% 9/26 -31.5% 10/3 -29.6% 10/10 -29.2% 10/17 -30.7% 10/24 -31.7% 10/31 -29.0% 11/7 -35.9% 11/14 -32.7% 11/21 -32.6% 11/28 -28.5% 12/5 -37.9% 12/12 -37.4% 12/19 -26.4% 12/26 -33.0%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:26 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 787,000
    Published Thu, Dec 31 2020 9:26 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000 , a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 803,000 to 806,000. The 4-week moving average was 836,750, an increase of 17,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 818,250 to 819,000. emphasis added This does not include the 308,262 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 396,948 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 836,750. The previous week was revised up. The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week). At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined. Continued claims decreased to 5,393,440 (SA) from 5,457,941 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note: There are an additional 8,459,647 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 9,271,112 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  An additional 4,772,853 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,793,230 the previous week. This was close to expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:05 AM » Inflation is poised to rear its head in 2021 but may not stick around long
    Published Thu, Dec 31 2020 9:05 AM by CNBC
    Bond market traders and Wall Street experts have been signaling rising inflation from its current dormant levels.
  • 9:05 AM » Top Posts of 2020: Largest Four-Month Lumber Price Increase in 70 Years
    Published Thu, Dec 31 2020 9:05 AM by
    With the end of 2020 approaching and a vaccine now being deployed, NAHB's Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the past, dramatic year — a year that saw housing emerge as a bright spot for an economy under stress. In September, the NAHB Economics team examined the run-up in lumber costs that occurred... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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