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  • Tue, Jan 21 2020
  • 4:27 PM » Wall St. pulls back from records on worries about virus outbreak and global growth
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 4:27 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street lost ground on Tuesday, backing away from record highs as a viral outbreak from China found its way to U.S. shores and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast.
  • 1:26 PM » Revisiting: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked?
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    I wrote this in July 2018 (see: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2) First, I think it is likely that existing home sales will move more sideways going forward. However it is important to remember that new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc. - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale. ... For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales . As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight." If new home sales and single family starts have peaked that would be a significant warning sign.   Although housing is under pressure from policy (negative impact from tax, immigration and trade policies), I do not think housing has peaked, and I think new home sales and single family starts will increase further over the next couple of years . Since that post, existing home sales have mostly moved sideways, and both new home sales and single family starts have hit new cycle highs. Here is the graph I like to use to track tops and bottoms for housing activity. This is a graph of Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and  Residential Investment (RI) as a percent of GDP. Click on graph for larger image. The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures. The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. RI as a percent of GDP...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:26 PM » Share of First-Time Home Buyers Rises Significantly in the Final Quarter of 2019
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:26 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB's latest Housing Trends Report, the share of adults who are considering purchasing a home in the next 12 months fell to 11% in the final quarter of 2019, down from 13% a year earlier. This decline marks the fifth consecutive year-over-year drop in the share of American adults planning to buy a home in the year ahead,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:25 PM » Housing market falling short by nearly 4 million homes as demand grows
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 1:25 PM by CNBC
    Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand. The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to a new analysis from realtor.com.
  • 11:46 AM » Trump again pushes negative interest rates, but Kudlow says they don't work
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 11:46 AM by CNBC
    Both officials spoke Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos and offered different views on how effective below-zero government bond yields are on stimulating growth.
  • 10:07 AM » Retired Workers and the Overall Labor Force Participation Rate
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 10:07 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In December I wrote Ten Economic Questions for 2020 . I noted that I expect the overall participation rate to start declining again in 2020, pushing down the unemployment rate . Note: Every month, with the employment report, I focus on the prime participation rate because of changing demographics - but this post is about the overall participation rate. Here is a graph of the annual change in Retired workers and dependent receiving Old-Age Social Security benefits and the annual Labor Force Participation Rate since 1970.  This doesn't mean these people are actually retiring (they may still be working), but this gives us an idea of how many people are retiring per year. Click on graph for larger image. The number of people retiring per year was declining until the late '90s, and then started increasing. The annual overall (16+ years old) participation rate peaked around 2000, and has generally been decreasing as more people retire. Note: There are other factors involved in the decline in the overall participation rate - such as more people staying in school - but retiring workers is a key. A few years ago, I predicted the overall participation rate would move mostly sideways or increase slightly as solid employment growth offset the large number of retirements. Now, given demographics, I expect to see a downward trend for the overall participation rate over the next decade, even with a healthy job market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:28 AM » China virus sends chill through markets as risks rise
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 9:28 AM by Reuters
    Global stock markets took a hit on Tuesday as mounting concern about a new strain of coronavirus in China sent a ripple of risk aversion through markets.
  • 8:22 AM » Mnuchin tells WSJ that phase 2 of China trade deal may not remove all tariffs
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Wall Street Journal that the next step in trade negotiations with China may not lift tariffs.
  • 8:11 AM » Central banks join forces to look at future digital currencies
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:11 AM by Reuters
    Major central banks are looking at the case for issuing their own digital currencies, the Bank of England and European Central Bank said on Tuesday, amid a growing debate over the future of money and who controls it.
  • 8:04 AM » White House top economic advisor Larry Kudlow says economic growth will top 3% this year
    Published Tue, Jan 21 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Kudlow, President Donald Trump's top economic advisor, said Tuesday that GDP growth in the U.S. should hit at least 3% in 2020.
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