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  • Fri, Jan 17 2020
  • 4:58 PM » Wall Street hits new highs in strongest week since August
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 4:58 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street climbed to record highs on Friday, with major indexes turning in their strongest weekly gains since August, after strong U.S. housing data and signs of resilience in the Chinese economy raised hopes of a rebound in global growth.
  • 4:58 PM » Treasury brings back the 20-year bond to pay for the ballooning deficit
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 4:58 PM by CNBC
    The Treasury Department is issuing a 20-year bond for the first time in 34 years to help pay for the ballooning $1 trillion dollar budget deficit.
  • 2:40 PM » CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 7.4% YoY, Inventory down 26.5%, Lowest Inventory in "nearly seven years"
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost housing market in second half of year as home prices post strong gains in December, C.A.R. reports Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 398,880 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. December's sales total was down 1.0 percent from the 402,880 level in November and marked the first time in six months that sales fell below the 400,000 benchmark. Still, sales were up a solid 7.4 percent from December 2018 's revised 371,410 figure. For the year 2019, annual home sales fell for the second consecutive year to a preliminary 397,910 closed escrow sales in California, down from 2018's pace of 402,640. "Despite a sales slowdown at year-end, home sales were up from a year ago as interest rates remained low. It's important to note, however, that the increase was due partly to low housing demand in the prior year," said 2020 C.A.R. President Jeanne Radsick, a second-generation REALTOR® from Bakersfield, Calif. "Looking ahead, low rates should continue to provide support to the market as buyers have become more motivated to get back into the market, and home sales in California should see an improvement at the start of the year." ... "With housing supply dropping to the lowest level in nearly seven years, California experienced an unusual jump in its median price at the end of the year when the market is supposed to cool down," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "While low rates have been fueling demand in the second...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:40 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.0%
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:40 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch On balance retail sales cut our 4Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 2.0% qoq saar . [Jan 17 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 17 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau and industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real residential investment growth from 4.3 percent to 5.5 percent. [Jan 17 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.2% and 2.0% annualized in Q4.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:12 PM » Trump's Fed pick Judy Shelton faces obstacles to confirmation
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 2:12 PM by CNBC
    The move comes with two pressing questions - whether she could be a future chair at the central bank, and if she even will be able to serve if confirmed
  • 12:49 PM » BLS: Job Openings "Fell" to 6.8 Million in November
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 12:49 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: In November there were 6.800 million job openings, and, according to the November Employment report, there were 5.811 million unemployed. So, for the twenty-first consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (almost 5 years). From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings fell to 6.8 million (-561,000) on the last business day of November , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1 percent. ... The number of total nonfarm quits was little changed in November at 3.5 million and the rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. Quits increased in retail trade (+118,000), wholesale trade (+26,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (+19,000). Quits decreased in other services (-63,000). emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for November, the most recent employment report was for December. Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in November to 6.800 million from 7.361 million in October. The number of job openings (yellow) are down 11% year-over...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:49 AM » Fed's Bullard: "Material reassessment" is "big tent language"
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 11:49 AM by Reuters
    St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard expounded on what might comprise a "material reassessment" of the economic outlook, the Treasury yield curve, the central bank's framework review and more in a Reuters interview.
  • 11:25 AM » U.S. manufacturing output rises unexpectedly
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 11:25 AM by Reuters
    U.S. manufacturing output rose unexpectedly in December as a drop in motor vehicle output was outpaced by increases in production of other durable goods, food and beverages, and other products.
  • 9:45 AM » The yield curve's still weird. Fed's Bullard is okay with that
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 9:45 AM by Reuters
    It was more than a year ago when St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President James Bullard started raising the alarm about a U.S. bond market where interest rates seemed to show investors losing faith in the economy, a risky environment for the Fed to carry out planned rate increases.
  • 8:17 AM » US Home Prices Up 7% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 17 2020 8:17 AM by www.redfin.com
    A record shortage of homes for sale drove prices up on a monthly and annual basis. U.S. home-sale prices increased 6.9% year over year in December to a median of $312,500 across the 217 metros Redfin tracks. Home prices were also up 1.1% month over month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the largest increase since February … US Home Prices Up 7% in December Read More » The post US Home Prices Up 7% in December appeared first on Redfin Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
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