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  • Fri, Aug 23 2019
  • 5:29 PM » Trump jacks up tariffs on Chinese imports in latest tit-for-tat
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 5:29 PM by Reuters
    President Donald Trump said on Friday the United States would subject Chinese imports to an additional 5% tariff in response to what he called a politically motivated move by China to impose tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. exports.
  • 4:30 PM » Fed Vice Chair Clarida says the global economic outlook has worsened since July meeting
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 4:30 PM by CNBC
    Fed Vice Chair Clarida says the global economic outlook has worsened since July meeting<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/fed-vice-chair-clarida-says-the-global-economic-outlook-has-worsened-since-july-meeting.html
  • 4:28 PM » Lawler: Updated "Demographic" Outlook Using Recent Population Estimates by Age
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 4:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Updated "Demographic" Outlook Using Recent Population Estimates by Age Executive Summary: Analysts who use intermediate or long term population projections to forecast key economic variables such as labor force growth, household growth, etc. should recognize that the latest official Census intermediate and long term population projections (produced in 2017 and referred to as "Census 2017") are out of date. Specifically, Census 2017 materially over-predicted births, materially under-predicted deaths (mainly for non-elderly adults), and somewhat over-predicted net international migration (NIM) for each of the last several years . In addition, the assumptions in Census 2017 projections over the next several years (and more) are almost certainly too high for births, too low for deaths, and too high for NIM. As a result, population growth, household growth, and labor force growth over the next few years will be lower than forecasts based on the Census 2017 population projections . How much lower depends critically on net international migration, which in the current environment is a big unknown. Using more realistic assumptions on births and deaths by age, I have developed updated population projections by age through 2021 assuming (1) net international migration in each year is the same as in 2018; and (2) there is no international migration in 2020 or 2021. I did the latter scenario to highlight the importance of net international migration assumptions on population projections. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Earlier this year the Census Bureau released its latest ("Vintage 2018) estimates of the US resident population by single year of age for July 1, 2018, as well as for July of each of the previous 8 years. These latest estimates give analysts a new starting point that can be used to update population projections by age using assumptions about births...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:17 PM » Here's What Officials Are Saying at the Jackson Hole Fed Meeting
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 3:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Here's What Officials Are Saying at the Jackson Hole Fed Meeting    Bloomberg Central bankers from around the world are gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual retreat.
  • 2:49 PM » Appraisals may soon not be required on certain home sales of $400,000 and under
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 2:49 PM by www.housingwire.com
    Appraisals may soon not be required on certain home sales of $400,000 and under
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.housingwire.com
  • 2:32 PM » Like Those Low Rates? Shame If Something Happened to Them
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 2:32 PM by Bloomberg
    Like Those Low Rates? Shame If Something Happened to Them    Bloomberg Why China helped lead to a savings glut that's depressed rates, and how it could be undone.
  • 1:54 PM » Pickering: It Makes Sense That Bond Yields Are Low
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 1:54 PM by Bloomberg
    Pickering: It Makes Sense That Bond Yields Are Low    Bloomberg Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg, discusses the rally in bonds and what it could mean for the overall economy. He speaks with Scarlet Fu and ...
  • 11:50 AM » Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 11:50 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 2.1% qoq saar for 3Q . 2Q GDP growth is likely to be revised modestly lower in the second release to 1.8% from the advance estimate of 2.1%. [Aug 23 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.8% for 2019:Q3 . [Aug 23 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.2 percent on August 16 , unchanged from August 15 after rounding. [Aug 16 estimate] (next update on Aug 26th) CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:05 AM » Powell: No 'rulebook' on trade, pledges the Fed will 'act as appropriate' to sustain the economy
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 10:05 AM by CNBC
    Powell repeated his pledge Friday to keep the economic expansion going while acknowledging that tariffs and other factors are causing growth to slow.
  • 9:35 AM » Multifamily Construction Data: 2nd Quarter 2019
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 9:35 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. As multifamily developers build more for-sale housing units in the years ahead, the average size of multifamily homes is likely to rise. According to second quarter 2019 data, the average per unit square footage of multifamily housing construction starts was 1,103, off from... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:36 AM » China unveils retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in deepening trade row
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 8:36 AM by Reuters
    China unveiled on Friday retaliatory tariffs against about $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, marking the latest escalation of a protracted trade dispute between the world's two largest economies.
  • 8:31 AM » White House has reportedly discussed a Fed governor rotation to curb Powell's power
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 8:31 AM by CNBC
    Ideas include a rotation of Federal Reserve governors that would make it easier to curb Powell's power, according to the Washington Post.
  • 8:08 AM » Bullard says Fed should 'take out the insurance' with a rate cut and can always take it back
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 8:08 AM by CNBC
    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard spoke with CNBC on Friday from the Federal Reserve's economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole.
  • 8:07 AM » U.S. plans in-person China trade talks next month: White House adviser
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 8:07 AM by Reuters
    The Trump administration is still planning for a round of in-person talks between U.S. and Chinese officials in September after a constructive exchange this week between deputy-level negotiators, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Thursday.
  • 8:06 AM » For U.S. housing, trade war set to blunt some of Fed stimulus: Reuters poll
    Published Fri, Aug 23 2019 8:06 AM by Reuters
    The U.S.-China trade war may blunt some of the stimulus on the U.S. housing market from expected further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with only a modest outlook for price rises, a Reuters poll of property market experts found.
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