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  • Wed, Aug 14 2019
  • 5:19 PM » Home buyers are taking advantage of falling rates, says housing market analyst Ivy Zelman
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 5:19 PM by CNBC
    Housing market analyst Ivy Zelman, known for predicting the 2005 housing peak and the 2012 housing bottom, spoke to CNBC's Power Lunch on Wednesday.
  • 3:16 PM » Trump sees Fed rather than trade war as source of market turmoil
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 3:16 PM by Reuters
    With global markets flashing concern about the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and the near-term strength of the American economy, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday targeted Federal Reserve policy as the culprit for recent market turmoil.
  • 3:15 PM » Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 3:15 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    There are reasons to be concerned. The global economy is slowing. The US economy has slowed. Current policy (especially on trade) is a drag on growth. But I wouldn't freak out about the yield curve. In mid-1998 the spread between the 10 year and the 2 year went slightly negative, and a recession didn't start until 2001 - over 2 1/2 years later. Of course the Fed cut rates in 1998 - just like the current situation. When the spread turned solidly negative in 2000, the Fed was raising rates.   That would be a more concerning scenario. Also, with overall yields so low, I'm not sure this indicator is as useful as it has been.   The yield curve is indicating economic weakness, but I'm not currently on recession watch. Here is a graph of 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity from FRED. Click on graph for larger image. Click here for interactive graph at FRED . In general, I find new home sales and housing starts a better leading indicator for recessions than the yield curve.   And Year-to-date (through June), new home sales are up 2.2% compared to the same period in 2018 . Not indicating a recession!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:06 PM » Recession signal could put more pressure on the Fed to keep cutting rates
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 2:06 PM by CNBC
    With economic signals getting even more negative, questions are bound to arise over whether the central bank will act even more aggressively.
  • 2:03 PM » Wall Street tumbles on growing recession fears
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 2:03 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street main indexes slumped more than 2.5% on Wednesday, as a closely watched U.S. bond market indicator pointed to a renewed risk of recession following poor economic data from Germany and China.
  • 2:03 PM » Janet Yellen says yield curve inversion may be false recession signal this time
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 2:03 PM by CNBC
    Former Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen said the yield curve inversion is a "less good signal" of an eventual recession.
  • 2:03 PM » Bullard Says U.S. Avoiding Recession Makes Fed Review Well Timed - Bloomberg
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 2:03 PM by Bloomberg
    Bullard Says U.S. Avoiding Recession Makes Fed Review Well Timed    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard called current U.S. economic conditions "quite good" and said the goal of the central bank's policy ...
  • 2:02 PM » Houston Real Estate in July: All Time Record One-Month Sales, Sales up 11% YoY, Inventory Up 10%
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 2:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the HAR: The Houston Real Estate Market Heats Up in July Consumers kept Realtors across greater Houston busy in July, accounting for the greatest one-month volume of single-family home sales of all time . According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of Realtors® (HAR), July single-family home sales totaled 8,953. That is up 11.6 percent year-over-year and exceeds the last one-month sales volume record set in June 2018 (8,385). On a year-to-date basis, sales are 3.0 percent ahead of 2018's record volume. Realtors point to low mortgage interest rates and the steady growth in inventory for the solid monthly performance. Housing inventory continues to outpace 2018 with a 4.3-months supply compared to a 4.1-months supply last July. However, inventory peaked in June 2019 at a 4.4-months supply. Housing inventory is now holding at levels that prevailed before Hurricane Harvey struck in August 2017 and is providing a broader array of options for home buyers. Sales of all property types rose 10.9 percent in July , setting a new record with a total of 10,478 units. The previous high for total property sales in a single month was 10,115 in June 2018, which marked the first time that figure ever broke 10,000. Total dollar volume for the month increased 12.8 percent to $3.1 billion. "July was a strong month for home sales and rentals across the Houston area," said HAR Chair Shannon Cobb Evans with Heritage Texas Properties. "We believe that the Houston real estate market is on track for another record year, and that is directly attributed to a healthy local economy, low mortgage interest rates and an improving supply of homes." emphasis added Total active inventory was up 9.6% YoY to 45,498 properties from 41,527 properties in July 2018. Sales are on pace for a record year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:39 AM » U.S. Mortgage Debt Hits Record, Eclipsing 2008 Peak
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 11:39 AM by
    U.S. mortgage debt reached a record in the second quarter of 2019, exceeding its peak in 2008, when the financial crisis unfolded. One factor could be homeowners tapping into home equity for cash when they refinance. The post U.S. Mortgage Debt Hits Record, Eclipsing 2008 Peak appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:12 AM » Fed announces plans to develop real-time settlement service to support faster payments
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 11:12 AM by
    The Federal Reserve Board has determined that the Federal Reserve should take the following two actions: Develop a new interbank 24x7x365 real-time gross settlement (RTGS) service to be offered by the Federal Reserve Banks to directly support faster payments and to be called the FedNow Service Explore expanding the hours of the Fedwire Funds Service... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:21 AM » U.S. import prices unexpectedly rise, but trend still weak
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 9:21 AM by Reuters
    U.S. import prices unexpectedly rose in July, but the underlying trend continued to be weak, pointing to subdued imported inflation pressures.
  • 8:49 AM » ECB Warns Banks to Speed Their Preparations for a No-Deal Brexit
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 8:49 AM by Bloomberg
    ECB Warns Banks to Speed Their Preparations for a No-Deal Brexit    Bloomberg The European Central Bank blasted banks for slow-walking their Brexit preparations, telling them they must move additional staff and resources to the European ...
  • 8:04 AM » The inverted yield curve explained and what it means for your money
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones.
  • 8:04 AM » Guggenheim's Minerd Sees U.S. 10-Year Bond Going to 1.4%
    Published Wed, Aug 14 2019 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Guggenheim's Minerd Sees U.S. 10-Year Bond Going to 1.4%    Bloomberg Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners co-founder and Guggenheim Global chief investment officer, discusses the outlook for bond yields amid recent global ...
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.63%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.33%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.75%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 105-07 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 106-28 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 107-09 (-0-19)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 0%
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  • Purchase Index 0%