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  • Fri, Jul 12 2019
  • 4:37 PM » Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 4:37 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q2 review. I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2019? "I expect to see inventory up again year-over-year in December 2019.   My reasons for expecting more inventory are 1) inventory is still historically low (inventory in November 2018 was  the second lowest since 2000), 2) higher mortgage rates, and 3) further negative impact in certain areas from new tax law." According to the May NAR report on existing home sales , inventory was up 2.7% year-over-year in May, and the months-of-supply was at 4.3 months. It is early, and the inventory build has slowed recently as mortgage rates declined, but I still expect some increase in inventory this year. 9) Question #9 for 2019: What will happen with house prices in 2019? "If inventory increases further year-over-year as I expect by December 2019, it seems likely that price appreciation will slow to the low single digits - maybe around 3%." If is very early, but the CoreLogic data for May showed prices up 3.6% year-over-year. The April Case-Shiller data showed prices up 3.5% YoY - and slowing.  Currently it appears price gains will slow in 2019. 8) Question #8 for 2019: How much will Residential Investment increase? "Most analysts are looking for starts and new home sales to increase to slightly in 2019. For example, the NAHB is forecasting a slight increase in starts (to 1.269 million), and no change in home sales in 2019. And Fannie Mae is forecasting a slight increase in starts...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:07 PM » Building Materials Price Declines Led by Lumber and Plywood
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 3:07 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Prices paid for goods used in residential construction decreased by 1.1% in June (not seasonally adjusted) according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The decline broke a four-month trend of increases and was only the fifth month over the past two years in which prices fell. Over the past 12 months, building materials prices... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:03 PM » Bidding wars are heating up. Here's how to win your dream home
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 1:03 PM by CNBC
    The dull days of summer may be over sooner than expected in the nation's housing market. The supply of homes for sale, which had been increasing earlier this year, could turn lower again soon, and that will likely mean the return of bidding wars.
  • 12:37 PM » U.S. producer prices rise marginally, suggest tame inflation
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 12:37 PM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices rose slightly for the second straight month in June as an acceleration in the cost of services was offset by cheaper energy goods, resulting in the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in nearly 2-1/2 years.
  • 11:12 AM » Treasury Dept asks Congress to raise debt ceiling before summer recess
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 11:12 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Dept asks Congress to raise debt ceiling before summer recess<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/12/treasury-dept-asks-congress-to-raise-debt-ceiling-before-summer-recess.html
  • 9:02 AM » U.S. producer prices rise slightly; cost of goods declines
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 9:02 AM by Reuters
    U.S. producer prices rose slightly in June as the cost of energy and other goods fell for a second straight month, offsetting an acceleration in services, leading to the smallest annual increase in producer inflation in nearly 2-1/2 years.
  • 8:06 AM » Messy 30-Year Treasury Sale Follows Dovish Powell, Firmer CPI
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Messy 30-Year Treasury Sale Follows Dovish Powell, Firmer CPI    Bloomberg Investors balked at the U.S. Treasury's auction of 30-year bonds as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cited low inflation as grounds for a potential ...
  • 8:02 AM » First-Time Home Buyer Nightmare: Why It's Taking Longer to Find the Perfect Home
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:02 AM by www.realtor.com
    Snagging the right home for the right price is a challenging task at the best of times. And it's even worse for first-time buyers. The post First-Time Home Buyer Nightmare: Why It’s Taking Longer to Find the Perfect Home appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:02 AM » Powell Says Tariffs and Immigration May Be Slowing Homebuilding
    Published Fri, Jul 12 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Powell Says Tariffs and Immigration May Be Slowing Homebuilding    Bloomberg The U.S. housing shortage has the attention of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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  • Purchase Index 1.13%