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  • Fri, Jun 14 2019
  • 5:31 PM » Wall Street ends slightly lower with Fed in focus
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 5:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday, with investors cautious going into next week's Federal Reserve meeting, while a warning from Broadcom of a broad weakening in global demand weighed on chipmakers.
  • 3:44 PM » Besides a cut, the Fed could do this
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 3:44 PM by CNBC
    The "Halftime Report" traders think the Fed won't cut rates next week but needs to continue signaling that it is monitoring economic developments and will intervene if necessary.
  • 3:12 PM » TREASURIES-Yield curve flattens as sturdy data eases slowdown fears
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 3:12 PM by CNBC
    TREASURIES-Yield curve flattens as sturdy data eases slowdown fears
  • 1:26 PM » All eyes on Fed as stock market pines for rate cut
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 1:26 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week is shaping up as a pivotal one for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
  • 12:40 PM » Consumers 'won't accept it' — ex-retailer says stores can forget price hikes to offset tariffs
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 12:40 PM by CNBC
    Major retailers are making changes behind-the-scenes to offset any costs from the Chinese tariffs, says ex-department store executive Jan Kniffen.
  • 11:56 AM » Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 11:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales popped 0.5% mom in May with positive revisions. Industrial production and inventories were also solid. The data lifted 2Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.5% qoq saar . 1Q GDP tracking was unchanged at 3.2%.[June 14 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q2 and 1.7% for 2019:Q3 [June 14 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on June 14 , up from 1.4 percent on June 7. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent. [June 14 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q2.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:26 AM » Treasury Rally Pauses for Breath as American Shoppers Show Up
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 11:26 AM by Bloomberg
    Treasury Rally Pauses for Breath as American Shoppers Show Up    Bloomberg Treasuries halted their advance after data showing that American shoppers are proving more resilient than expected and factory output strengthening.
  • 10:28 AM » The Fed is likely to drop 'patient' word next week, clearing way for July cut, economists say
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 10:28 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is not likely to make a move on interest rates when it meets next week, but it is expected to smooth the way for a rate cut later in the summer.
  • 9:57 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 9:57 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in May after falling 0.4 percent in April . The indexes for manufacturing and mining gained 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in May; the index for utilities climbed 2.1 percent. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.0 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent , a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2018) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.1% is 1.7% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in May to 109.2. This is 26% above the recession low, and 4.0% above the pre-recession peak. The increase in industrial production and increase in capacity utilization were above consensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:42 AM » A $4 Trillion Risk Tied to Freeing Fannie and Freddie Could Hurt U.S. Homebuyers
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 9:42 AM by Bloomberg
    A $4 Trillion Risk Tied to Freeing Fannie and Freddie Could Hurt U.S. Homebuyers    Bloomberg The Trump Administration's urgency to free Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from federal control has some on Wall Street worried that it might happen without the ...
  • 9:27 AM » Take Five: The Fed and the rest
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 9:27 AM by Reuters
    With President Donald Trump's trade policies heightening fears of a U.S. recession, expectations of a Fed rate cut have dramatically increased in the past month. Money market pricing became even more aggressive after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell threw open the door to a cut, promising on June 4 the Fed would act "as appropriate" to address risks from the trade dispute. It was the second sudden shift in the Fed's tone, after January when it abandoned its bias toward steady tightening.
  • 8:37 AM » US retail sales rose in May, while April was revised higher
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 8:37 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales were expected to rise 0.6% in May, after slipping 0.2% a month earlier.
  • 8:04 AM » Fed Seen on Track for 2019 Cut Though It's a Close Call: Survey
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 8:04 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Seen on Track for 2019 Cut Though It's a Close Call: Survey    Bloomberg The Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates this year but not nearly as aggressively as investors expect, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
  • 8:03 AM » Bond yields slip, stocks suffer on cooling China data
    Published Fri, Jun 14 2019 8:03 AM by Reuters
    World stocks struggled and safe haven bets were back in play on Friday with German bond yields plumbing record lows as Chinese data rekindled woes about the health of the global economy and fears of a new U.S.-Iran confrontation intensified.
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