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  • Thu, May 16 2019
  • 4:32 PM » Fed may not be able to engineer higher inflation: Kashkari
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 4:32 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates unless there is hard data signaling economic weakness ahead, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday, and should not rely on a rate cut to try to kickstart a healthier level of inflation.
  • 4:31 PM » CAR: "California home sales stumble into spring home buying season"
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 4:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California home sales stumble into spring home buying season as median price sets another record California home sales remained muted entering the spring homebuying season as soft buyer demand continues to challenge the market, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 396,760 units in April, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the April pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. April's sales figure was down 0.1 percent from the 397,210 level in March and down 4.8 percent from home sales in April 2018 of 416,750. Sales remained below the 400,000 level for the ninth consecutive month and have fallen on a year-over-year basis for a full year. "Weak buyer demand, largely prompted by elevated home prices, is playing a role in the softening housing market," said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. "However, with low interest rates, cooling competition and an increase in homes to choose from, buyers can take advantage of a more balanced housing market." ... Encouragingly, the growth in active listings from the year prior decelerated for the fourth straight month. The number of homes available for sale increased only 10.8 percent from last April , but still enough to provide a much-needed supply of homes for sale. The growth in active listings has fallen from more than 30 percent at the end of 2018 suggesting that the market is becoming more balanced, rather than experiencing a full-scale exodus of sellers in California. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, dipped on a month-to-month...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:23 PM » With inflation elusive, two Fed policymakers lay out a welcome mat
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 4:23 PM by Reuters
    Worried that current low inflation expectations will sap the U.S. central bank's ability to combat a future downturn, two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday made an unusual pitch: if inflation rises unexpectedly, the Fed should lay out the welcome mat.
  • 2:31 PM » U.S. President Trump took out new 30-year mortgage in 2018 worth over $5 million
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump obtained a new 30-year mortgage in 2018 for a property he owned in West Palm Beach, Florida, according to new financial disclosures made public on Thursday by the Office of Government Ethics.
  • 2:31 PM » Taylor Morrison CEO on homebuilding at end of 2018: "It was that bad."
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by CNBC
    The latest read on April housing starts showed improvement over March, but still a slower building pace than a year ago. The CEO of Arizona-based Taylor Morrison said, "In December, if you were to talk to anybody, there was, potentially, a house was never going to be sold in the U.S. again. It was that bad."
  • 2:31 PM » Townhouse Construction Slows at Start of 2019
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 2:31 PM by
    According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction slowed during the first quarter of 2019 after a strong 2018 performance. Nonetheless, townhouse construction is set for further expansion given the demographics of renters entering the for-sale market, as well as ongoing land constraints and the growth of demand for... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:40 PM » Incoming wave of millennial home buyers is a major opportunity for US housing market, says Taylor Morrison CEO
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 12:40 PM by CNBC
    Nearly 45 million Americans will reach the general age of first-time home buyers in the next 10 years, 3.1 million more than in the 10 years prior, according to a recent analysis by Zillow.
  • 12:17 PM » Fed's Neel Kashkari says rate hikes 'were not called for' and that policy has been 'too tight'
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 12:17 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve erred by raising interest rates during the recovery, part of a policy implementation that misread key signals and threatened to send the economy into recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Thursday.
  • 11:55 AM » Bond Traders Need to Up Their Game as AI Systems Get Smarter
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 11:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bond Traders Need to Up Their Game as AI Systems Get Smarter    Bloomberg Money is pouring into artificial intelligence in bond markets, challenging bankers and investors to adapt their skills in everything from issuing to trading ...
  • 11:02 AM » Philly Fed Mfg "Current Indicators Suggest Continued Growth" in May
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 11:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed: May 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region's manufacturing sector . The survey's indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment increased from their April readings. The new orders index remained positive but decreased modestly. The survey's future activity index, after falling in recent months, was little changed, while the firms' forecast for future employment improved. The diffusion index for current general activity increased from 8.5 in April to 16.6 this month . ... On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment. The employment diffusion index increased 4 points to 18.2, its highest reading in five months . emphasis added Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through April) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis). These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in May, and probably at about the faster pace than in April.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:23 AM » China has cut its holdings of US debt to the lowest level in two years amid trade tensions
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 10:23 AM by CNBC
    The move represents a continued pattern of declines that comes as the two sides have been unable to hammer out a long-term trade agreement.
  • 8:15 AM » Some contrarians predict Trump's tariffs could trigger the very sort of interest rates he can't stand
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:15 AM by CNBC
    The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China could cause interest rate hikes, the very opposite of what President Donald Trump wants, some analysts have told CNBC.
  • 8:04 AM » Living with your parents to save money might hurt your chances of becoming a homeowner
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Young adults who lived with their parents between the ages of 25 and 34 were actually less likely to become homeowners after ten years than those who didn't. Diana Olick reports.
  • 8:02 AM » Global ‘Wall of Worry' Feeds Rush for Treasuries as Risks Mount
    Published Thu, May 16 2019 8:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Global 'Wall of Worry' Feeds Rush for Treasuries as Risks Mount    Bloomberg All roads are leading to the U.S. Treasury market as a dizzying array of global geopolitical and economic forces bolster the world's penchant to buy America's ...
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