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  • Fri, Feb 15 2019
  • 2:53 PM » TREASURIES-Yields range-bound amid mixed economic data
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 2:53 PM by CNBC
    *Optimism that U.S., China will reach trade deal. NEW YORK, Feb 15- U.S. Its not been a trend of weaker or stronger that can really push the market one way or another, thats why I think were kind of sitting here and waiting, said Justin Lederer, an interest rate strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.
  • 2:12 PM » Serious Delinquency Rate Continues its Decline
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 2:12 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most recent results of the National Delinquency Survey produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) show that, as of the 4th quarter of 2018, mortgage servicers serviced 29.9 million non-government-insured mortgages, also known as conventional mortgages. Beginning with the first quarter of 2017, the MBA had discontinued its long-held classification of conventional loans into the prime and subprime categories,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:23 PM » Banks Offered Homeowners Refinances After the Crisis, but Americans Stopped Trusting Banks
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 1:23 PM by www.realtor.com
    When banks stepped up their efforts to persuade homeowners to refinance, it "deepened" suspicion, a study found. The post Banks Offered Homeowners Refinances After the Crisis, but Americans Stopped Trusting Banks appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 12:48 PM » Small banks you've never heard of are quietly enabling the tech takeover of the financial industry
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 12:48 PM by CNBC
    A small group of banks are handling the "financial" side of billion-dollar financial technology start-ups.
  • 12:21 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts: High-1s, Low-2s, 2018 Annual GDP around 2.8%
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 12:21 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th. From Merrill Lynch: Weak retail sales data and inventory build caused a 0.8pp decline in our 4Q GDP tracking estimate to 1.5% from 2.3% [Feb 14 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: The retail sales report indicated a considerably weaker pace of fourth quarter consumption growth than we had previously assumed. Reflecting this and lower-than-expected November business inventories, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by five tenths to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Feb 14 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2018:Q4 and 1.1% for 2019:Q1. [Feb 15 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.5 percent on February 14 , down from 2.7 percent on February 6. [Feb 14 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the high 1s for Q4. Using the middle of these four forecasts (about 1.8% real GDP growth in Q4), that would put 2018 annual GDP growth at around 2.8%.  This would be the best year since 2015, but lower than many forecasts.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:49 AM » Here's where the money for Trump's border wall will come from
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 11:49 AM by CNBC
    With the declaration of a national emergency, President Donald Trump has access to roughly $8 billion to fund a border wall.
  • 10:55 AM » MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Dropped to 18-Year Low in the Fourth Quarter of 2018"
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 10:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Dropped to 18-Year Low in the Fourth Quarter of 2018 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.06 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018 , according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate was down 41 basis points from the third quarter of 2018 and 111 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by two basis points to 0.25 percent. " The overall national mortgage delinquency rate in the fourth quarter was at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2000 ," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "What's even more noteworthy, the delinquency rate dropped from the previous quarter and on a year-over-year basis across all loan types and stages of delinquency." Added Walsh, "With the unemployment rate near a 50-year low, wage growth trending higher and household debt levels relative to disposable incomes at a 35-year low, homeowners are in great shape, and mortgage performance is quite strong." ... In relation to the third quarter of 2018, mortgage delinquencies decreased across all stages of delinquency. The 30-day delinquency rate decreased 22 basis points to 2.29 percent, the 60-day delinquency rate decreased three basis points to 0.74 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket decreased 15 basis points to 1.03 percent. ... The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due, but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 0.95 percent, down four basis points from the third quarter of 2018 and 24 basis points lower than one year ago. This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:26 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 95.5 in February, vs. expectations for 93
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 10:26 AM by CNBC
    Consumer sentiment hits 95.5 in February, vs. expectations for 93<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/15/consumer-sentiment-february.html
  • 9:39 AM » Industrial Production Decreased 0.6% in January
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 9:39 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in January after rising 0.1 percent in December. In January, manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent, primarily as a result of a large drop in motor vehicle assemblies; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities moved up 0.1 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. At 109.4 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.8 percent higher in January than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.6 percentage point in January to 78.2 percent , a rate that is 1.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2018) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.2% is 1.6% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in January to 109.4. This is 25.6% above the recession low, and 3.8% above the pre-recession peak. The decrease in industrial production and capacity utilization were well below consensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:48 AM » How Surge in Inflation-Adjusted Pay Can Lead Fed to Higher Rates
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 8:48 AM by Bloomberg
    How Surge in Inflation-Adjusted Pay Can Lead Fed to Higher Rates    Bloomberg One reason to look past the surprise December drop in U.S. retail sales came in a report a day earlier, which showed Americans' inflation-adjusted wages rising ...
  • 8:20 AM » Atlanta Home Prices Up 4.8%, Outpacing National Growth
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 8:20 AM by www.redfin.com
    In Atlanta, price growth is stronger and homes are selling faster than they are in the U.S. overall, trends explained in part by the surge in people looking to move inland. Atlanta area home prices were up 4.8 percent annually to a median of $229,900 in January, marking nearly seven years of growing prices. While […] The post Atlanta Home Prices Up 4.8%, Outpacing National Growth appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:03 AM » JGBs rise tracking gains in U.S. Treasuries
    Published Fri, Feb 15 2019 8:03 AM by CNBC
    TOKYO, Feb 15- Japanese government bond prices rose on Friday as U.S. Treasuries held on to overnight gains and after Tokyo stocks pulled back from near two-month highs, boosting demand for debt. Also casting a shadow, the White House said President Donald Trump will declare a national emergency to try to obtain funds for his promised U.S.- Mexico border wall,...
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