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  • Fri, Jan 18 2019
  • 2:57 PM » Consumer Sentiment Declined in January, Lowest since 2006
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 2:57 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the University of Michigan: Preliminary Results for January 2019 Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected . The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014 . The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies . emphasis added CR Note: Sentiment is a coincident indicator.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:46 PM » 2018 Third Quarter Mortgage Originations Grow from Prior Quarter
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 1:46 PM by
    Household Debt and Credit reports, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, show that mortgage balances, which make up the majority of household debt, increased by $141 billion in the third quarter of 2018 from the previous quarter to reach an outstanding amount of $9.14 trillion. They also show that mortgage originations increased by about $8 billion from... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:14 PM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 4 states in December; Lower in 3 States
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 12:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were higher in December in 4 states, lower in 3 states , and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Fourteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 36 states and the District had little or no change. ... Iowa had the lowest unemployment rate in December, 2.4 percent. Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.3 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).  Only two states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, West Virginia. A total of seven states are at the series low.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:54 AM » Banks, credit unions offer 0 percent interest loans during the government shutdown
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 10:54 AM by CNBC
    Amid the stalemate in Washington, credit unions and banks are offering accomodations to federal workers. Their best offers include interest-free loans.
  • 10:53 AM » The record government shutdown, if not resolved soon, could be 'fodder for recession': Moody's
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 10:53 AM by CNBC
    "If this drags on into February, March, then growth rates are going to fall to a place where unemployment will start to rise," economist Mark Zandi warns.
  • 10:13 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 10:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating. At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.0 percent higher in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent , a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.0 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.7% is 1.1% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in December to 109.9. This is 26% above the recession low, and 4% above the pre-recession peak. The increase in industrial production was above the consensus forecast.  Capacity utilization was also above consensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:25 AM » Fed's Williams calls for 'patience and good judgment' before raising rates
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 9:25 AM by CNBC
    Growing economic headwinds and anxiety about the pace of growth are cause for the Federal Reserve to be cautious about hiking interest rates further, John Williams, president of the central bank's New York region, said in a speech Friday.
  • 8:05 AM » Maryland Commission should reject adoption of NCLC's Model Arbitration Act
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 8:05 AM by
    According to a report issued earlier this month, the Maryland Financial Consumer Protection Commission is considering the adoption of the "Model State Consumer and Employee Justice Enforcement Act" developed several years ago by the National Consumer Law Center. The Model Act proposes a number of "state interventions" aimed at preventing the alleged harms caused by... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:03 AM » Fed's Evans Says He Won't Be Surprised If Funds Rate Is Higher at Year-End
    Published Fri, Jan 18 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed's Evans Says He Won't Be Surprised If Funds Rate Is Higher at Year-End    Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans discusses the path of monetary policy and the state of the U.S. economy with Bloomberg's Kathleen ...
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