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  • Fri, Jan 11 2019
  • 4:57 PM » U.S. government shutdown may depress January job growth
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 4:57 PM by Reuters
    A partial shutdown of the U.S. government could slash job growth by as much as 500,000 in January and lift the unemployment rate above 4.0 percent unless the impasse in Washington is resolved before next Friday, economists warned.
  • 3:24 PM » Update on Shutdown impact on January Employment Report; Congress Approves Back Pay for Furloughed Employees
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 3:24 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the WaPo: Congress approves back pay - eventually - for furloughed federal employees . This measure is expected to be signed by the President. For the January employment report, this means that the BLS will count all Federal employees as employed in the establishment survey - whether on furlough, or working without pay. So don't expect a negative headline jobs number due to the government shutdown (although some non-government employees will likely lose their jobs if the shutdown continues). However, in the household report, furloughed employees will be counted as unemployed, so the unemployment rate will probably bump up to 4.0% or 4.1% in the January report (to be released February 1st).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:45 PM » â€˜It's Definitely Risk On': Rush to Bond Market Begins in U.S.
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 2:45 PM by Bloomberg
    'It's Definitely Risk On': Rush to Bond Market Begins in U.S.    Bloomberg U.S. credit markets are finally thawing. The high-yield market saw its first new issue in six weeks on Thursday, the same day that investors poured in nearly $40 ...
  • 2:14 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s, Estimate of Shutdown Impact on GDP
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 2:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Merrill Lynch estimate of impact of government shutdown on GDP: We think a deal to reopen the government will be reached eventually, but only after economic, financial and/or political pain is felt. Every two weeks of a shutdown will trim 0.1pp from growth; additional drag is likely due to delays in spending and investment. From Merrill Lynch: 4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8% . We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 11 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2018:Q4 and 2.1% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 11 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 remains 2.8 percent on January 10. [Jan 10 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:53 PM » New home sales tank 19 percent to end 2018
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 12:53 PM by CNBC
    Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm. Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.
  • 11:48 AM » Key Measures Show Inflation about the same in December as in November on YoY Basis
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 11:48 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-0.7% annualized rate) in December. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for December here . Motor fuel was down 60% annualized in December. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.2%. Core PCE is for November and increased 1.9% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.4% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.5% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.6% annualized. Using these measures, inflation was about the same in December on a year-over-year basis as in November. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:44 AM » New York enacts amendments addressing collection of family member debts
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 9:44 AM by
    On December 28, 2018, New York Governor Cuomo signed into law amendments to the state's General Business Law (GBL) that address the collection of family member debts. The amendments made by Senate Bill 3491A become effective March 29, 2019. While the legislative history indicates that the amendments are intended to address the collection of a... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:46 AM » U.S. consumer prices post first drop in nine months
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 8:46 AM by Reuters
    U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in nine months in December amid a plunge in the cost of gasoline, but underlying inflation pressures remained firm as rental housing and healthcare costs rose steadily.
  • 8:19 AM » Some Mortgage Deals Are In Limbo As Government Shutdown Drags On
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 8:19 AM by
    Furloughed workers can't refinance or buy homes without the ability to verify their income. For a recently divorced couple, it means continuing to live together until financial issues are resolved.
  • 8:13 AM » US Treasury yields edge lower after Powell comments
    Published Fri, Jan 11 2019 8:13 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Friday morning, as investors digested comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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