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  • Fri, Sep 21 2018
  • 3:50 PM » The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:50 PM by
    Why was the Great Recession so deep? Certainly, the collapse of the housing bubble was the key precipitating event; falling house prices depressed consumer wealth and spending while leading to sharp reductions in residential construction. However, as I argue in a new paper and blog post, the most damaging aspect of the unwinding bubble was…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:50 PM » Here's how much time homeowners spend on housework compared to renters
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:50 PM by CNBC
    Apartment List found that homeowners spend, on average, 141 more hours a year doing housework than renters - that's the equivalent of 3.5 full work weeks.
  • 3:29 PM » California Amends Student Loan Servicing Act
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:29 PM by
    California Governor Jerry Brown has signed into law Assembly Bill 38, which significantly modifies the scope, administration, and servicing requirements of the state's Student Loan Servicing Act. The bill was approved by the California Assembly 55-23-2 and the California Senate 28-11-1 with the intent to "build upon existing law to ensure that the Student Loan... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:13 PM » Merrill: "Existing Home Sales have Peaked"
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:13 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: We are calling it: existing home sales have peaked. We believe that the peak was at 5.72 million, reached in November last year. From here on, sales should trend sideways . If this is indeed the peak, it would be comparable to the rate we last saw in the early 2000s before the bubble set in. Here is the catch - while existing home sales have likely peaked, we do not think we have seen the same for new home sales . New home sales have lagged existing in this recovery and we believe there is room to run for new home sales, leaving builders to add more single family homes to the market. The peak in existing home sales can largely be explained by the decline in affordability. With housing prices hovering close to bubble highs and mortgage rates on the rise, affordability has been declining. emphasis added CR Note: As I noted in July (see: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2) First, I think it is likely that existing home sales will move more sideways going forward. However it is important to remember that new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc. - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale. Also I think the growth in multi-family starts is behind us, and that multi-family starts peaked in June 2015. See: Comments on June Housing Starts For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales . As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight." If new home sales and single family starts have...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:22 PM » The Decade-Long Growth in Rentership is Slowly Reversing
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 2:22 PM by
    The Decade-Long Growth in Rentership is Slowly Reversing
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 1:58 PM » Investors keep pouring money into bonds, and are paying a big price for it
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 1:58 PM by CNBC
    Risk-averse investors keep pouring money into bonds even though it means they've missed out on a big stock rally and face substantial danger ahead.
  • 11:51 AM » Homebuilder shares plunge after JP Morgan says housing recovery will be 'tepid,' downgrading 5 stocks
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 11:51 AM by CNBC
    Homebuilder stocks are tanking after J.P. Morgan said it is "more cautious" about the sector's prospects.
  • 10:56 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates in Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina and Washington at New Lows
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in August in 13 states , higher in 3 states, and stable in 34 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 39 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate was unchanged from July at 3.9 percent but was 0.5 percentage point lower than in August 2017. ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in August, 2.1 percent. The rates in Idaho (2.8 percent), Oregon (3.8 percent), South Carolina (3.4 percent), and Washington (4.5 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.7 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:36 AM » Commercial Real Estate Cycles — Q2 2018
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:36 AM by
    This is the Must Have quarterly report for those in commercial real estate For me this is the most timely read quarterly information regarding Commercial Real Estate — Dr. Glenn Mueller's Real Estate Cycles Q2 2018 report from Black Creek Group - Black Creek Research. The report contains valuable data spanning major commercial real … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:09 AM » U.S. 'very close' to proceeding with Mexico-only trade deal: Trump adviser
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:09 AM by Reuters
    The United States is getting "very, very close" to having to move forward on its trade deal with Mexico without Canada, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday.
  • 9:45 AM » Vinyl and Stucco are the Most Common Siding On New Homes
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:45 AM by
    The most common exterior wall materials on homes started in 2017 were vinyl and siding. Vinyl siding was used on 27 percent of the new homes started in 2017, followed closely by stucco (25 percent), brick or brick veneer (21 percent), and fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard) (20 percent). Far smaller shares of single-family homes started last year... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:02 AM » Over 62,000 still without power in the Carolinas after Florence
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:02 AM by Reuters
    More than 62,000 homes and businesses in the Carolinas were still without power on Friday, a week after Hurricane Florence hit the North Carolina coast on Sept. 14, according to local power companies.
  • 8:08 AM » U.S. bond market recession signal not far away, strategists say: Reuters poll
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    U.S. bond market recession signal not far away, strategists say: Reuters poll
  • 8:01 AM » Fed's Powell between a rock and hard place: Ignore the yield curve or tight job market?
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 8:01 AM by Reuters
    Unemployment near a 20-year low screams at the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or risk a too-hot economy. The bond market, not far from a state that typically precedes a recession, says not so fast.
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 5.00%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 4.48%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.43%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 102-08 (-0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 104-08 (-0-03)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 105-25 (-0-04)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 0.03%
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  • Refinance Index -0.10%
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  • Purchase Index 0.12%