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  • Wed, Sep 19 2018
  • 4:17 PM » Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs Bloomberg The selloff in Treasuries that's taken the 10-year yield above 3 percent isn't getting enough attention. And DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has noticed. He's right -- at least on the first part. References to "Treasury yields" in news articles are ... and more »
  • 4:16 PM » Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:16 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards Bloomberg Liftoff may finally have arrived for yields in the world's biggest debt market. That's good news for the fast-money crowd that's rarely been more bearishly positioned on 10-year Treasury futures. Yields on all maturities have taken flight this week ... and more »
  • 4:12 PM » Nine Years Ago: Fast or Sluggish Recovery?
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is my 14th year writing this blog, and sometimes it is fun to look back at earlier predictions. In the early stages of the recovery (September 2009), a number of analysts were predicting a rapid recovery (see: A couple of Bullish Views ). My view was that the recovery would be sluggish.  First, I quoted from some optimistic views, and then wrote: I disagree with these views. Although I started the year expecting a bottom in new home sales and single family housing starts (and it appears that has happened), there is still too much existing home inventory for much of an increase in the short term. ... onsumers will remain under pressure as they repair their household balance sheets This time housing will remain under pressure until the number of excess housing units (both owner occupied and rentals) decline to more normal levels. So I think an "Immaculate Recovery" is very unlikely. Note: Housing starts did bottom in 2009, and then mostly moved sideways for the next couple of years. House prices didn't bottom for a few more years (from February 2012: The Housing Bottom is Here ). Click on graph for larger image. And, according to the NY Fed , household debt didn't bottom until Q2 2013. This graph shows aggregate consumer debt.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. Housing and household debt were drags on the economy for several years, and the recovery was sluggish. In addition, demographics weren't favorable (see: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%) sually following a recession, there is a brief period of above average growth - but not this time due to the financial crisis and need for households to deleverage. So we didn't see a strong bounce back (sluggish growth was predict on the blog for the first years of the recovery). And overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis. For 2018...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:06 PM » This type of loan doesn't help your credit score, even if you stay on top of it
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 3:06 PM by CNBC
    Paying down your debts on time can help your credit score in the long run. But not if you use this type of loan.
  • 1:05 PM » The 'Great Bull' market is 'dead,' and here's what's next, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:05 PM by CNBC
    The "Great Bull" market that came after the financial crisis is dead due to slowing economic growth, rising interest rates and too much debt, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis.
  • 1:02 PM » AIA: "August architecture firm billings rebound"
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: August architecture firm billings rebound as building investment spurt continues Architecture firm billings rebounded solidly in August, posting their eleventh consecutive month of growth, according to a report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for August was 54.2 compared to 50.7 in July (any score over 50 represents billings growth). Most of the growth continues to come from the South and the multi-family residential sector. "Billings at architecture firms in the South continue to lead the healthy increase in design activity that we've seen across the profession in recent months," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Nationally, growth across all building sectors remains solidly positive." ... • Regional averages: West (54.2), Midwest (52.5), South (57.0), Northeast (46.9) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (55.6), institutional (52.3), commercial/industrial (53.6), mixed practice (51.7) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.2 in August, up from 50.7 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 11 of the last 12 months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment in 2018 and into 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:19 AM » Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 11:19 AM by Bloomberg
    Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
  • 10:45 AM » Ten years after the financial crisis: Reflections by Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:45 AM by
    Ten years after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, former New York Fed President and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson reflect on the responses they led to the 2007-09 global financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession. Here are highlights of their wide-ranging conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:24 AM » Booking a vacation to Bermuda vs. a new kitchen: Here's how some people misuse their home equity
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:24 AM by CNBC
    Sure, you can use your home equity to cover a new kitchen or to help back up your rainy-day funds. But some people are just fine with using their abode to help meet monthly bills. Here's what you need to know about home equity loans and lines of credit.
  • 9:07 AM » Low-income Americans get double squeeze from poor credit and high fees
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 9:07 AM by CNBC
    Poor credit is a serious problem for low-income Americans.
  • 8:03 AM » The Fed has some big decisions to make starting next week
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    When the Federal Reserve gathers next week, markets likely will be looking past a widely expected rate hike and toward the direction the central bank will chart ahead.
  • 8:01 AM » Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:01 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills Bloomberg As U.S. household debt rises and wages stagnate, millions of Americans are tapping into home equity to keep up with day-to-day expenses. Twenty-four million homeowners believe borrowing against home equity is an acceptable way to cover regular bills, ... and more »
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