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  • Fri, Sep 14 2018
  • 4:31 PM » Wall Street near flat, Trump gives go ahead on China tariffs
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 4:31 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks were flat on Friday after President Donald Trump instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese products, while financial shares gained with bond yields.
  • 4:31 PM » Lawler: Household Estimates Conundrum Alive and Well
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 4:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Household Estimates Conundrum Alive and Well One of the most vexing government data issues facing housing economists is the lack of any timely and reliable estimates of the number of US households. To be sure, there is no shortage of household estimates: in addition to the decennial Census counts, Census releases four different estimates of the number of US households. Unfortunately, the estimates not only differ materially, but also show different characteristics of households (e.g., by age) and often show different growth rates over time. This issue, labeled by Census economists several years ago as the "household estimates conundrum," was highlighted in the recent release of US household estimates from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS), the 2017 American Housing Survey (AHS), and the 2018 (March) Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS/ASEC). Below is a table showing estimates of the number of US households by age group from each of these surveys, as well as 2017 estimates from the Housing Vacancy Survey, a monthly supplement to the Current Population Survey. Different Estimates of the Number of US Households by Select Age Groups (000's) ACS 2017 AHS 2017 HVS 2017 CPS/ASEC March 2018 CPS/ASEC March 2017 Total 120,063 121,190 119,273 127,586 126,224 15-24 4,334 4,274 5,932 6,211 6,239 25-34 18,107 17,716 19,399 20,264 20,109 35-44 20,553 20,740 20,051 21,576 21,500 45-54 22,671 23,220 21,387 22,542 22,808 55-64 23,705 24,690 22,551 24,020 23,770 65+ 30,692 30,550 29,953 32,973 31,798 None of these surveys is designed directly to measure the number of households; rather, they are designed to estimate the characteristics of the household population and/or the housing stock. Household estimates are then "controlled" either to independent US population estimates (CPS/ASEC) or to independent US housing stock estimates (ACS, AHS, and HVS). If the housing stock estimates are correct...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:09 PM » San Francisco Fed names Mary Daly as president
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 3:09 PM by CNBC
    Mary Daly was named the San Francisco Fed's president, succeeding John Williams, who departed in June to lead the New York Fed.
  • 2:45 PM » Bailing Out AIG: 10 Years After the Financial Crisis
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 2:45 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bailing Out AIG: 10 Years After the Financial Crisis Bloomberg Jim Millstein, founder and chief executive officer at Millstein & Co. and former chief restructuring officer at the U.S. Treasury, recounts the bailout of AIG and the impact on insurers in the aftermath of the financial crisis. He speaks with Bloomberg ...
  • 1:52 PM » The financial crisis set millennials back—but it may have made them better with money
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 1:52 PM by CNBC
    Watching their parents struggle seems to have taught millennials important money lessons.
  • 1:25 PM » The bond market is beginning to believe the Fed is serious about two more rate hikes this year
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 1:25 PM by CNBC
    Bond investors appear to be coming to grips with the idea that central banks are ending the days of super easy money and are getting ready to slowly empty the punch bowl of liquidity.
  • 12:49 PM » Homeowners are sitting on $6 trillion in available cash, but they're not tapping it
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 12:49 PM by CNBC
    The big gains in home values over the last two years are starting to slow down, but U.S. homeowners are still reaping the rewards. As prices continue to rise, so too does the amount of home equity available for homeowners to tap.
  • 12:27 PM » Yellen: Fed should commit to future 'booms' to make up for major busts
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 12:27 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve should commit to letting economic booms run on enough to fully offset collapses like the 2007 to 2009 Great Recession, former Fed chair Janet Yellen said on Friday, urging the central bank to make "lower-for-longer" its official motto for interest rates following serious downturns.
  • 10:59 AM » Fed's Evans says premature to read much into yield curve
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 10:59 AM by Reuters
    A narrowing gap between long-term and short-term borrowing costs does not necessarily signal a coming recession, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said on Friday.
  • 9:57 AM » Fed policy to turn mildly restrictive in 2019, Evans says
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 9:57 AM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes will begin to drag on U.S. economic growth and employment by next year, a U.S. central banker said Friday, as the level of borrowing costs appropriately turns "mildly restrictive" after more than a decade of acting as a stimulant.
  • 9:39 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in August
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 9:39 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August for its third consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent on the strength of a 4.0 percent rise for motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies jumped to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April. Excluding the gain in motor vehicles and parts, factory output was unchanged. The output of utilities advanced 1.2 percent, and mining production increased 0.7 percent; the index for mining last decreased in January. At 108.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.9 percent higher in August than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up in August to 78.1 percent , a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.1% is 1.7% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in August to 108.2. This is 24% above the recession low, and 3% above the pre-recession peak. The increase in industrial production was at the consensus forecast - however July was revised down, and capacity utilization was below concensus.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:22 AM » US import prices post largest drop in more than 1-1/2 years
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 9:22 AM by CNBC
    U.S. import prices recorded their biggest drop in more than 1-1/2 years in August amid declines in the cost of fuels and a range of other goods.
  • 8:09 AM » Erdogan Says His Patience on Central Bank Policy Has Limits
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 8:09 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Erdogan Says His Patience on Central Bank Policy Has Limits Bloomberg Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resumed his criticism of the nation's central bank a day after it announced the biggest rate hike of his rule. "It's currently my phase of patience but there is a limit to this patience," Erdogan told members of ... and more »
  • 8:03 AM » Millions of Americans still trapped in debt-logged homes ten years after crisis
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 8:03 AM by Reuters
    School bus driver Michael Payne was renting an apartment on the 30th floor of a New York City high-rise, where the landlord's idea of fixing broken windows was to cover them with boards.
  • 8:03 AM » Factbox: More than 188,000 without power as Florence batters Carolinas
    Published Fri, Sep 14 2018 8:03 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Southeast power companies said more than 188,000 homes and businesses in North Carolina and South Carolina were without power early Friday as Hurricane Florence caused a deluge ahead of its landfall later in the day.
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