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  • Fri, Jun 22 2018
  • 2:38 PM » Increased threat of a trade war is ramping up fears of a 'full-blown recession'
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 2:38 PM by CNBC
    Even as growth ramps up to what could be the fastest rate since before the financial crisis, economists are worried that a trade war could tip the U.S. into a significant slowdown or even a recession. Fears over a GDP pullback comes as President Donald Trump threatens another more severe round of tariffs aimed both at China and the European Union.
  • 12:43 PM » Duy: "No, A Recession Is Not Likely In The Next Twelve Months"
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 12:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from Professor Tim Duy at Fed Watch: No, A Recession Is Not Likely In The Next Twelve Months. Why Do You Ask? Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates. The culprit will be the Fed: "Cycles die, and you know how they die?" Rosenberg told the Inside ETFs Canada conference in Montreal on Thursday. "Because the Fed puts a bullet in its forehead." I get this. I buy the story that the Fed is likely to have a large role in causing the next recession. Either via overtightening or failing to loosen quickly enough in response to a negative shock. And I truly get the frustration of being a business cycle economist in the midst of what will almost certainly be a record-breaking expansion. Imagine a business cycle economist going year after year without a recession to ride. It's like Tinkerbell without her wings. But the timeline here is wrong. And timing is everything when it comes to the recession call. Recessions don't happen out of thin air. Data starts shifting ahead of a recession. Manufacturing activity sags. Housing starts tumble. Jobless claims start rising. You know the drill, and we are seeing any of it yet. For a recession to start in the next twelve months, the data has to make a hard turn now. Maybe yesterday. And you would have to believe that turn would be happening in the midst of a substantial fiscal stimulus adding a tailwind to the economy through 2019. I just don't see it happening. ... Bottom Line: The business cycle is not dead. The future holds another recession. But many, many things have to start going wrong in fairly short order to bring about a recession in the next twelve months. It would probably have to be an extraordinary set of events outside of the typical business cycle dynamics. A much better bet is to expect this expansion will be a record breaker. CR Notes: I agree completely with Duy. I don't see a recession starting...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:18 PM » The Outdoor Features That Will Boost Home Values the Most
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 12:18 PM by www.realtor.com
    Sellers hoping to get the highest prices for their homes this summer should consider these popular outdoor features. The post The Outdoor Features That Will Boost Home Values the Most appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:22 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $930 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-732
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 11:22 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $930 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-732
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:45 AM » Trump threatens 20 percent tariff on European Union cars
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 10:45 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 20 percent tariff on all European Union-assembled cars coming into the United States, a month after the administration launched an investigation into whether auto imports pose a national security threat.
  • 9:51 AM » Europe's Retaliation Takes US Trade Tensions to the Next Level
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 9:51 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Europe's Retaliation Takes US Trade Tensions to the Next Level Bloomberg The European Union's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products came into force on Friday, the latest shots fired in what increasingly looks like a global trade war. The EU, the world's largest trading bloc, imposed levies on 2.8 billion euros ($3.3 billion ... and more »
  • 9:20 AM » Merrill: "The cost of a trade war"
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 9:20 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a research note by Merrill Lynch economists: The cost of a trade war Early this week, trade tensions ratcheted up another notch. President Trump announced that he has directed the US Trade Representative to prepare another round of tariffs on $200bn in Chinese imports at a tax rate of 10%. This comes after China announced that it would retaliate dollar for dollar against the initial round of tariffs that are set to go into effect on July 6. While the actual amount of tariffs that have been imposed by the US to date remain modest at just over $100bn worth of goods imports (only 4.2% of total goods imports), the latest announcement shows that trade tensions are likely to get worse before it gets better. Although we remain of the view that the likelihood of a full blown global trade war remains low, below we try to put some numbers on how a major trade confrontation could potentially impact the US economy. The good news is that we are still many steps away from a full blown global trade war. The bad news is that the tail risks are rising and our work and the literature suggest a major global trade confrontation would likely push the US and the rest of the world to the brink of a recession. So far, the trade actions taken by the Trump White House and trading partners have been relatively modest and in turn have had a limited impact on the economy and financial markets. The next round of $100-$200bn of tariff between US and China may prove more substantial. Further escalation like auto tariffs would lead us to reassess the US economic outlook.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » Global Economy Week Ahead: Soft patch, facade, or great decoupling?
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    Global Economy Week Ahead: Soft patch, facade, or great decoupling?
  • 8:05 AM » Euro zone second-quarter growth likely decent but trade concerns rising
    Published Fri, Jun 22 2018 8:05 AM by Reuters
    Euro zone second-quarter growth likely decent but trade concerns rising
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