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  • Fri, Feb 9 2018
  • 2:43 PM » Lawler on Prime Working Age Population
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 2:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR note: Earlier this week, I wrote Prime Working-Age Population At New Peak, First Time Since 2007 . As I noted, my graph was based on data from the BLS. Housing economist Tom Lawler pointed out that the BLS data doesn't match the Census data. He wrote: "The reason the BLS population data don't jive with the latest Census population estimates is that there have been numerous and in some cases sizable revisions in population estimates from those first reported, and the BLS does NOT go back and adjust historical data for revisions. In re last decade, there were a string of downward population revisions." Here is a table of the recent Census estimates for the prime working age population (Vintage 2016). Note: The Vintage 2017 has been released, but not by age. In general, the data shows the same pattern as the data from the BLS (although the details are different) - the prime working age population was mostly flat in the 2010 to 2014 period (due to demographics, not the great recession), and the prime working age population is now growing again (although this may be impacted by immigration policies going forward). This is important because slower working age population growth impacts GDP. See Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% Prime Working Age Population, Census Vintage 2016 As of July 1 25 to 54 Annual Change 2000 122,972,314 2001 123,909,542 0.8% 2002 123,982,489 0.1% 2003 124,217,955 0.2% 2004 124,696,761 0.4% 2005 125,260,089 0.5% 2006 125,925,139 0.5% 2007 126,449,632 0.4% 2008 126,860,406 0.3% 2009 127,078,241 0.2% 2010 127,191,778 0.1% 2011 127,209,296 0.0% 2012 127,144,275 -0.1% 2013 127,134,500 0.0% 2014 127,302,008 0.1% 2015 127,578,973 0.2% 2016 127,934,078 0.3%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:38 PM » Stock and bond markets are doing a strange thing that is reminiscent of the 1987 crash
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 1:38 PM by CNBC
    David Rosenberg says a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield during a stock market decline is very rare.
  • 1:36 PM » House Again Passes Legislation to Review Points and Fees
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 1:36 PM by
    On February 8, 2018 the United States House of Representatives passed The Mortgage Choice Act, H.R. 1153, to revise the definition of "points and fees" for purposes of the Regulation Z ability to repay/qualified mortgage requirements and high-cost mortgage loan requirements. Although a voice vote was held on February 7, Chairman of the House Financial... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:07 PM » The worst of the bond rout is yet to come, says Piper Jaffray
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 12:07 PM by CNBC
    The bond rout will continue, with yields possibly reaching 3 percent soon, according to Craig Johnson, senior technical strategist at Piper Jaffray.
  • 11:37 AM » BOE's Broadbent Says Rate Path Slightly Higher Than in November
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 11:37 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg BOE's Broadbent Says Rate Path Slightly Higher Than in November Bloomberg Improvements in the economy mean the path for U.K. interest rates is slightly higher than the Bank of England saw in November, according to Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent. While he reiterated than any moves would be "limited and gradual," he echoed BOE ... and more »
  • 10:47 AM » Housing: Inventory is Key
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending , and that boosted price increases.  I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas through January 2018, Phoenix and Sacramento (January 2018 not available yet for Phoenix and Sacramento), and also total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (through December 2017). Click on graph for larger image. This shows the year-over-year change in inventory for Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas.  The black line if the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR. Inventory has increased recently in Sacramento (still very low), but is down Nationally, and in Phoenix and Las Vegas. Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I will be watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:36 AM » Driverless Cars Have Potential Market
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:36 AM by
    NAHB regularly conducts national polls of American adults and home buyers in order to understand new trends and preferences in the housing market. This is the second in a series of posts highlighting poll results, as presented during the 2018 International Builders' Show in Orlando, FL. See previous post on tiny homes. Driverless cars are currently being developed and tested... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:14 AM » Will It Become Harder to Afford a Home? Experts Say Yes
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:14 AM by
    Despite a red-hot real estate market, most aspiring buyers can still afford to own a home. But it may not be that way for much longer. The post Will It Become Harder to Afford a Home? Experts Say Yes appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:09 AM » Wholesale inventories grew more than expected in December
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:09 AM by CNBC
    An advance report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed wholesale inventories increasing 0.2 percent to $611.4 billion in December.
  • 9:30 AM » Merrill: "The $1 trillion dollar budget deficit"
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 9:30 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few brief excerpts from a note by Merrill Lynch economists: The $1 trillion dollar budget deficit The latest developments in Washington imply that the budget deficit will continue to swell in the coming years. The bipartisan Senate agreement would boost spending cap levels for defense and non-defense programs over the next two years by roughly $300bn. As a first pass at estimating the impact on the deficit forecast, we think it would [bring] deficits to $825bn and $1,070bn. This will translate to one of the largest budget deficits during an expansion and, by far, the largest when the economy is at full employment . ... The Senate agreement also suspends the debt limit and staves off a potential Treasury default, which we projected would occur in early March without an increase. The "suspension" of the debt limit does not set a new level for the amount of debt outstanding, but instead sets a date on which the debt limit will be reinitiated. Press reports indicate that the debt limit will be suspended until March 2019, which removes this issue until Congress gets beyond the mid-term elections in November. ... What do higher deficits mean for the economy and markets? The first order impact is greater Treasury supply ... [Merrill] expect the Treasury will look to boost its bill financing and see risks to more near-term supply due to a higher cash balance. These developments further the view of our rates strategy team for higher Treasury rates and a steeper curve. For the economy, a higher deficit will boost near term growth, though it will also threaten to "crowd out" private investment. The US had trillion dollar deficits in the fiscal years during and just following the great recession. Those deficits peaked at close to 10% of GDP; this deficit will be around 5% of GDP, but still very high during the later stages of an expansion.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:19 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $710 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-HG1, Backed by Properties Controlled by Harbor Group International, LLC
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 9:19 AM by
    Freddie Mac Prices $710 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-HG1, Backed by Properties Controlled by Harbor Group International, LLC
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:50 AM » Trillion-dollar risk lurks if market volatility doesn't abate
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:50 AM by Reuters
    LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - As world markets catch their breath after a week of turmoil, investors are concerned that a new era of heightened volatility could eventually lead to a second wave of selling as investment strategies popular for years are forced to unwind.
  • 8:36 AM » A rare market warning sign: People were finally investing in Dow right before it crashed
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    The Dow is the market's bull/bear barometer but was never much of an investment. That changed after Trump's election, and heated up before the Dow crash.
  • 8:36 AM » Wall Street on course for worst week in six years
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:36 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock markets were set to open flat to lower on Friday, on course for their worst week in more than six years.
  • 8:36 AM » Mulvaney announces new CFPB Chief of Staff
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:36 AM by
    Earlier this week, Mick Mulvaney, President Trump’s designee as CFPB Acting Director, announced that he has appointed Kirsten Sutton Mork as CFPB Chief of Staff. Ms. Sutton Mork has been serving as staff director of the House Financial Services Committee under Chairman Jeb Hensarling. We previously blogged about Mr. Hensarling’s announcement that Ms. Sutton Mork... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:30 AM » Congress raids the Federal Reserve's piggy bank again, this time to help pay for the new budget deal
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:30 AM by CNBC
    Analysts say it's a budget gimmick that exposes the central bank's political vulnerability.
  • 8:28 AM » Congress votes to end brief government shutdown
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:28 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives joined the Senate early on Friday morning in approving a bill to end an overnight federal shutdown, sparing Republicans further embarrassment and averting serious interruption of the government's business.
  • 8:26 AM » U.S. oil falls for sixth day as supply fears mount
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 8:26 AM by Reuters
    TOKYO (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices fell for a sixth day on Friday after Iran announced plans to boost production and U.S. crude output hit record highs, adding to concerns about a sharp rise in global supplies.
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