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  • Fri, Feb 23 2018
  • 4:42 PM » Lawler: "Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook"
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 4:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Census: Population Growth Slowed Slightly in 2017: Immigration Uncertainty Clouds Outlook At the end of last year the Census Bureau released its estimate of the US population for July 1, 2017 and its updated estimates for previous years (the so-called "Vintage 2017" estimates). As of July 1, 2017 Census estimated that the US resident population totaled 325,719,178, up 2,313,062 (or 0.71%) from the upwardly-revised estimate for July 1, 2016. The estimated population increase for 2017 was slightly lower than the 2,366,096 estimated gain in 2016, reflecting slightly lower estimated births, slightly higher estimated deaths, and slightly lower net international migration. Revised population estimates for previous years mainly reflected revised estimates of net international migration, which were driven by an updated methodology for estimating foreign-born emigration and net native-born migration. Below is a table comparing Vintage 2017 population estimates compared to the Vintage 2015 and the Vintage 2016 estimates. The Vintage "estimates" for the subsequent year reflect near-term projections for each Vintage. Estimated US Resident Population Vintage 2015 Vintage 2016 Vintage 2017 7/1/2010 309,346,863 309,348,193 309,339,421 7/1/2011 311,718,857 311,663,358 311,644,280 7/1/2012 314,102,623 313,998,379 313,993,272 7/1/2013 316,427,395 316,204,908 316,234,505 7/1/2014 318,907,401 318,563,456 318,622,525 7/1/2015 321,418,820 320,896,618 321,039,839 7/1/2016 323,889,854 323,127,513 323,405,935 7/1/2017 325,344,115 325,719,178 7/1/2018 328,033,240 While Census had originally planned to release updated long-term population projections in December (the last long-term population projections report was released at the end of 2014 with "Vintage 2013" as a starting point), "senior officials" delayed the updated population release until sometime in March. Many analysts use these population projections to project...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:06 PM » Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 2:06 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Inflation-Vexed Bond Traders Are Unconvinced by Hawkish Fed Talk Bloomberg The Federal Reserve may think it's sounding more hawkish these days, yet the debt markets don't quite buy it. Traders are pricing in less than the three quarter-point rate hikes that officials have signaled as likely this year, and the market is still ... and more »
  • 2:03 PM » Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 2:03 PM by
    Freddie Mac February 2018 Insight
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:20 PM » House Prices: NAR Median Prices vs Case-Shiller Index
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 12:20 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    During the housing bubble and subsequent bust, I noted that the median house price could be distorted by the mix of houses sold. I preferred to use the repeat sales indexes from the FHFA, Case-Shiller and Corelogic (and others). Now that most of the distortion from the bubble is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the median (and mean) house price data for existing home sales from the NAR, compared to the Case-Shiller National index. The first graph show the NAR existing home sales median and mean prices since 1999 (Not Seasonally Adjusted), compared to Case-Shiller (Seasonally Adjusted). Click on graph for larger image. The median and mean house prices showed less of an increase in prices during the bubble (this was the distortion I discussed back in 2005 and 2006). Now it appears the median and mean prices are pretty much tracking the Case-Shiller index. The second graph show the same data on a year-over-year basis. On a year-over-year basis, the mean and median track Case-Shiller pretty closely. The Case-Shiller National Index was up 6.2% in November. The NAR median price was up 5.8% in January, and the mean price was up 4.7%. I still prefer the repeat sales indexes, but I think the NAR prices are also useful. The third graph shows the NAR existing home median prices, the Census Bureau's new home median prices, and the Case-Shiller national index. As has been widely reported, the new home builders have been focused on higher priced homes - and this is clear in the house price data. Compared to the bubble peak, the NAR median price is up 4.4%, the Case-Shiller index is up 6.4%, however new home median prices are up 27.5%!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:04 PM » Permits Grow Across Most States Over 2017
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 12:04 PM by
    Over the twelve months ending in December 2017, the total number of single-family permits issued nationwide reached 817,319. This is 9.6% ahead of its level over the first twelve months of 2016, 745,525. The results from the SOC are similar, single-family permits over the first twelve months of 2017, 817,700 are 8.9% ahead of their level over the same period... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:37 AM » Fed sees rate hikes on track; continued U.S. growth
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 11:37 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve, looking past a recent stock market sell-off and concern about inflation, said it sees steady growth continuing and no serious risks on the horizon the might pause its planned pace of rate hikes.
  • 11:06 AM » Fed sees economy past full employment but with only 'moderate' wage gains
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 11:06 AM by CNBC
    Fed policymakers see an economy that may be past full employment, market prices that are high and overall growth that continues to gather steam.
  • 10:24 AM » Fed should lean on rate cuts, not QE, in next recession: paper
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 10:24 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should focus on lowering interest rates in the face of the next recession, and avoid relying on asset purchases that are a less effective policy tool than previously thought, four top U.S. economists told a roomful of Fed officials on Friday.
  • 10:17 AM » Most House Hunters Have Been Searching For 3 Months or More
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 10:17 AM by Market Watch
    Most house hunters have been searching for 3 months or more
  • 9:14 AM » Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share Remains Elevated
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 9:14 AM by
    The market share of rental multifamily construction starts ticked back up to an elevated level of 95% in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to NAHB analysis of Census data. In contrast, the historical low share of 47% was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. The average share of 80% was recorded during the 1980-2002... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:30 AM » Atlanta Fed President Says 'Things Continue to Look Up' for US Economy
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:30 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Atlanta Fed President Says 'Things Continue to Look Up' for US Economy Bloomberg The U.S. central bank is carefully raising interest rates against a brightening economic background that has perked up conditions for the nation's lenders, said Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic. After years of emergency-era ...
  • 8:30 AM » Why Man-Made Hazards Aren't Deterring Buyers in Pricey Areas
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:30 AM by
    Living in an environmentally hazardous area may be risky-but homes in such areas are appreciating more than residences farther away from these risks. The post Why Man-Made Hazards Aren’t Deterring Buyers in Pricey Areas appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:28 AM » JPMorgan's Quants Warn Risks Are Growing for Bond Short-Squeeze
    Published Fri, Feb 23 2018 8:28 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg JPMorgan's Quants Warn Risks Are Growing for Bond Short-Squeeze Bloomberg Investors have become so bearish on U.S. government bonds that they risk getting caught out, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s quantitative and derivatives strategy team. Short positioning in Treasury futures has climbed to a record, increasing the ... and more »
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