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  • Tue, Feb 13 2018
  • 3:49 PM » Market volatility, budget deficits pose test for Fed's Powell
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 3:49 PM by Reuters
    DAYTON, Ohio (Reuters) - When the Federal Reserve's policy meeting ended last month, U.S. stock indexes were near record highs, market volatility was almost non-existent and policymakers chatted about the calm waters welcoming incoming central bank chief Jerome Powell.
  • 3:48 PM » NY Fed Q4 Report: "Household Debt Increased, Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth"
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 3:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Household Debt Jumps as 2017 Marks the Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth Since Post-Recession Deleveraging The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit ,which reported that total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.5%) to $13.15 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017 . This report marks the fifth consecutive year of positive annual household debt growth . There were increases in mortgage, student, auto, and credit card debt (increasing by 1.6%, 1.5%, 0.7% and 3.2% respectively) and another modest decline in home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances (decreasing by 0.9%). The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. Mortgages are the largest form of household debt and their increase of $139 billion was the most substantial increase seen in several quarters. Unlike overall debt balances, which last year surpassed their previous peak reached in the third quarter of 2008, mortgage balances remain 4.4% below it. The New York Fed issued an accompanying blog post to examine the regional differences in mortgage debt growth since the previous peak. ... Bankruptcy notations decreased for the second consecutive quarter. ... Foreclosure notations remained essentially unchanged at the lowest levels observed in the New York Fed's data . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q4.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased substantially during the fourth quarter. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on December 31 stood at $8.88 trillion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:25 PM » Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 12:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Three years ago, I wrote Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% . In that post I pointed out that due to demographics, slower GDP growth should have been expected over the last decade (contrary to political nonsense). Yesterday, Greg Ip at the WSJ noted : Mulvaney: "People thought we were crazy" to forecast 2.3% 2017 growth. "We blew that out of the water." (Referring to John Mulvaney, Director of the Office of Management and Budget). What was real GDP growth in 2017? 2.3% according to the BEA. Too funny.  (Maybe he meant Q4 over Q4, but that was only 2.5% - not exactly blown "out of the water". This give me an excuse to update my graphs from my post three years ago. Overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis. One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with the same gains in productivity. And the opposite is true. So here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the labor force since 1950 (data from the BLS). Click on graph for larger image The data is noisy - because of changes in population controls and the business cycle - but the pattern is clear as indicated by the dashed red trend line. The labor force has been growing slowly after declining for some time. We could also look at just the prime working age population - I've pointed out before the that prime working age population has started growing again. Now here is a look at GDP for the same period. The GDP data (year-over-year quarterly) is also noisy, and the dashed blue line shows the trend. GDP was high in the early 50s - and early-to-mid 60s because of government spending (Korean and Vietnam wars).  As in example, in 1951, national defense added added 6.5 percentage points to GDP.  Of course we don't want another...
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    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:03 PM » Goldman: "The 2018 Inflation Rebound"
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 12:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven: The 2018 Inflation Rebound Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year . ... We highlight three key drivers of the core PCE acceleration to 1.8% by end-2018 in our forecast: a 0.15pp boost from the pass-through from higher energy prices and a weaker dollar, a 0.1-0.15pp lift from a tighter labor market, and a 0.1pp jump from the Verizon effect dropping out. ... We ... now see the risks to our core PCE forecast of 1.8% by end-2018 as moderately tilted to the upside . emphasis added CR Note: The central tendency for core inflation in the December FOMC projections was 1.7% to 1.9%. So this is in line with current FOMC projections, and still below the Fed target of 2%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:06 AM » Here's where Credit Suisse sees the risk of a bear market for bonds
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 11:06 AM by CNBC
    The downtrend in U.S. Treasury yields of the last several years has been broken, though experts disagree on the tipping point for a bear market.
  • 10:42 AM » Most Buyers Actively Trying to Get a Home Have Been Searching for 3 Months+
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:42 AM by
    NAHB regularly conducts national polls of American adults and home buyers in order to understand new trends and preferences in the housing market. This is the third in a series of posts highlighting poll results, as presented during the 2018 International Builders' Show in Orlando, FL. See previous posts on tiny homes and driverless cars. A recent poll revealed that... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:33 AM » Powell says Fed will be vigilant for financial stability risks
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:33 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the Fed would keep watching for financial stability risks and preserve improvements in regulation.
  • 10:16 AM » Volatile Markets Make Tomorrow's CPI Report a Reason to Worry
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:16 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Volatile Markets Make Tomorrow's CPI Report a Reason to Worry Bloomberg Wednesday's report on the U.S. consumer price index will be the most closely watched in recent memory, with investors seeking to understand the recent plunge in the stock and bond markets. They'll probably need to look beyond the main numbers for the ... and more »
  • 10:05 AM » Powell, Remarks at the Ceremonial Swearing-in
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:05 AM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 9:00 AM » Investors cut bond market allocation to 20-year low amid fears of a 'crash'
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 9:00 AM by CNBC
    Fund managers have sliced their bond allocations to the lowest level in 20 years as fears grow that the sector poses the biggest threat to markets.
  • 8:59 AM » Stock market's rout is not impacting the US economic outlook: Cleveland Fed's Mester
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:59 AM by CNBC
    The recent market sell-off and jump in volatility will not damage the economy's overall strong prospects, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said.
  • 8:33 AM » CFPB's Tough Monday: Ripped in Budget and Reined in by New Chief
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:33 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg CFPB's Tough Monday: Ripped in Budget and Reined in by New Chief Bloomberg The Trump administration's determination to revamp the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau took shape Monday with its acting head pledging to narrow the agency's focus just hours after the White House ripped the regulator in its annual budget proposal ... and more »
  • 8:32 AM » Small-Time Real Estate Investors Team Up for Big-Time Profits
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:32 AM by
    These days, many small real estate investors are working with partners. It makes it easier to buy more expensive properties and spreads the risks. The post Small-Time Real Estate Investors Team Up for Big-Time Profits appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:32 AM » Households Are Borrowing More to Fuel Spending, Wells Fargo Says
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:32 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Households Are Borrowing More to Fuel Spending, Wells Fargo Says Bloomberg U.S. households may be borrowing more to fuel their spending as wages grow slowly, according to Wells Fargo & Co. Consumer spending may be rising because Americans are growing more confident, analysts John McElravey and Ryan Brinkoetter wrote in a ... and more »
  • 8:31 AM » The overall U.S. housing market has recovered. But that's not true in every community.
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:31 AM by Washington Post
    TOWN SQUARE | While home values are soaring in California, they still are nearly 10 percent below peak in the Washington, D.C., area, according to Zillow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:31 AM » Refinancing A Mortgage? You Can Now Count Airbnb Income
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:31 AM by
    Refinancing A Mortgage? You Can Now Count Airbnb Income
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:30 AM » Early-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies Dip Again in November as Hurricanes' Impact Wanes
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:30 AM by
    Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.1 Percentage Points Year Over Year Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.2 Percentage Points Year Over Year Transition Rates for 60-Day and 90-Day Delinquency Rose Sharply in Texas and Florida Likely Due to 2017 Hurricanes CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 5.1 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in November 2017. This represents a 0.1 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2016 when it was 5.2 percent. As of November 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from 0.8 percent in November 2016. The foreclosure inventory rate has held steady at 0.6 percent since August 2017, the lowest level since June 2007 when it was also at 0.6 percent. This past November's foreclosure inventory rate was the lowest for the month of November in 11 years, since it was also 0.6 percent in November 2006. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2.2 percent in November 2017, down 0.1 percentage points from 2.3 percent in October 2017 and unchanged from 2.2 percent in November 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in November 2017 was 0.9 percent, unchanged from October 2017 and up from 0.7 percent in November 2016. The serious delinquency rate, reflecting loans 90.....
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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Mortgage Rates:
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