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  • Thu, Oct 4 2018
  • 3:19 PM » With the rise in interest rates, Friday's jobs report just got a lot more important
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 3:19 PM by CNBC
    Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for September comes at an important time for markets: As inflation fears again pop up, the government's measures of not only job creation but also wage growth could provide important signposts for what's ahead.
  • 2:02 PM » Miami Beach cracks down on short-term rentals
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 2:02 PM by CNBC
    Miami Beach, Florida, which already imposes stiff fines for illegal short-term rentals, is now requiring online platforms to list specific business license information on their sites.
  • 2:01 PM » California's Already-High Demand for Tax-Free Debt May Grow More
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 2:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg California's Already-High Demand for Tax-Free Debt May Grow More Bloomberg If you think there's a fight to score California bonds now, just wait until tax season. Certified public accountants are reporting that the Internal Revenue Service continues to issue rulings "week after week" since the tax overhaul that passed in ...
  • 2:01 PM » Good economic news is now bad news for stocks as rising interest rates take hold
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 2:01 PM by CNBC
    To a certain extent, higher yields are already affecting the stock market. Interest-rate-sensitive sectors have been generally down for the past month even as the broader markets have hit new highs.
  • 12:59 PM » Reis: Regional Mall Vacancy Rate increased Sharply in Q3 2018
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 12:59 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was 9.1% in Q3 2018, up from 8.6% in Q2 2018, and up from 8.3% in Q2 2017. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011, and up from the cycle low of 7.8% in Q1 2016. For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was 10.2% in Q3, unchanged from 10.2% in Q2, and up from 10.0% in Q3 2017. For strip malls, the vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in Q3 2011, and the low was 9.8% in Q2 2016. Comments from Reis: Following months of announcements, a number of Sears and Bon-Ton stores closed their doors in the third quarter pushing t he mall vacancy rate to 9.1% from 8.6% in the second quarter and a low of 7.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016. It had earlier peaked at 9.4% in the third quarter of 2011. The jump in vacancy does not account for a number of owner-occupied Sears and Bon-Ton stores that also closed but are not included in the Reis for-rent mall inventory. While we are tracking all of the closures, we only aggregate the stores that are for-lease in our vacancy and rent numbers. The average rent at malls declined 0.3% to $43.25 per square foot in the third quarter. Rent growth had been sluggish over the last few quarters but had remained positive. In 10 years, the average mall rent has cumulatively grown 6.5% from $40.62 per square foot in Q3 2008, which was the peak rate in the last cycle. For the neighborhood and community shopping center sector, the vacancy was unchanged at 10.2% after climbing 20 basis points in the second quarter from 10.0% where it had held steady for four straight quarters. The national average asking rent increased 0.4% in the third quarter as did the effective rent which nets out landlord concessions. At $21.11 per square foot (asking) and $18.48 per square foot (effective), the average rents have increased 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively, since the third quarter of 2017. Conclusion The third quarter saw the brunt of the big department store closings as the vacancy...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:59 PM » New Homes Built with Private Wells and Individual Septic Systems in 2017
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 12:59 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB Economics analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that about 9% of new single-family homes started in 2017 were served by individual wells and more than 16% have private septic systems. These shares, however, vary widely across the nine Census divisions with the corresponding shares reaching 39% and 43% in New England - the highest occurrence rates... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:56 AM » Reis: Office Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q3 to 16.6%
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 11:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged at 16.6% in Q3, from 16.6% in Q2 2018. This is up from 16.4% in Q3 2017, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%. From Reis Economist Barbara Denham: Defying employment trends, the U.S. office market was flat in the third quarter at 16.6% . Once again, leasing activity remains tepid compared to previous expansions. Net absorption, or occupancy growth, was 3.54 million square feet, up from 3.48 million square feet last quarter, but down from an average of 5.9 million square feet absorbed per quarter in 2017. New completions fell to 5.93 million square feet, down from an average of 11.2 million square feet added per quarter in 2017. Rent growth had accelerated a bit earlier in the year but fell to 0.4% in the third quarter, down from 0.7% in the second quarter. Both the average asking rent and average effective rent (that nets out landlord concessions) grew at the same rate in the quarter as they did in the prior six quarters. This suggests that landlord concessions have seen little change over the last year. One year ago, the average asking and effective rent growth was also 0.4%. At $33.20 per square foot (asking) and $26.94 per square foot (effective), the average rents have increased 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively, since the third quarter of 2017. ... The sluggishness in the office market is nothing new, but the deceleration contrasts an otherwise healthy economy as office employment growth has picked up in 2018 from rates seen in 2017 (1.8% in 2018 vs. 1.6% in 2017). The recent higher rent growth had suggested that landlords were gaining confidence in leasing conditions, but net absorption has persistently trailed new completions over the last seven quarters as tenants have been hesitant to take on added space which has kept a lid on rent growth. The office market statistics still reflect the gap between the haves and the have-nots: larger markets in the West, South Atlantic and larger Northeast cities with...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:44 AM » 10-year yield hits highest in 7 years as investors bet on roaring economy, higher inflation
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 11:44 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt yields added to a marked climb higher Thursday, making new multiyear highs a day after strong economic data ushered investors into riskier assets.
  • 11:17 AM » Factory orders post largest gain in 11 months
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 11:17 AM by CNBC
    New orders for U.S.-made goods recorded their biggest increase in nearly a year in August, boosted by a surge in demand for aircraft, but signs of weakness in business spending on equipment suggested that the manufacturing sector could be slowing.
  • 10:33 AM » Here's How Many Americans Can't Afford to Buy a Median-Priced Home
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 10:33 AM by www.realtor.com
    Nearly a third of Americans live in places where they need to make bank to afford a home. That pushes the American dream into fairy-tale territory. The post Here’s How Many Americans Can’t Afford to Buy a Median-Priced Home appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 10:14 AM » Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q3 to 4.8%
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 10:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.8% in Q3 2018, up from 4.7% in Q2, and up from 4.4% in Q3 2017.  This is the highest vacancy rate since Q3 2012. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. From Reis: The apartment vacancy rate increased in the quarter to 4.8% from 4.7% last quarter and 4.4% in the third quarter of 2017 . The vacancy rate has now increased 70 basis points from a low of 4.1% in Q3 2016. The national average asking rent increased 1.2% in the third quarter while the average effective rent, which nets out landlord concessions, also increased 1.2%. At $1,424 per unit (market) and $1,356 per unit (effective), the average rents have increased 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively, from the third quarter of 2017. Net absorption was 35,683 units, lower than the previous quarter's absorption of 57,988 units and below the average quarterly absorption of 2017 of 46,685 units. Construction was 50,475 units, also below the second quarter's 67,417 units and below the 2017 quarterly average of 61,535 units. ... The apartment market had slowed at the end of 2017 and early 2018 as the housing market started to accelerate. However, the passing of the Tax Reform and Jobs Act in December that doubled the standard deduction and cut the deductibility of state and local taxes reduced the incentive to buy a home. This has helped the apartment market, especially in high-taxed localities. We expect construction to remain robust for the rest of 2018 and in the first half of 2019 before completions drop off in subsequent periods. Occupancy is expected to remain positive, although vacancy rates are expected to increase, as new supply will outpace demand growth. Still, as long as job growth holds steady, we expect rent growth to remain positive over the next few quarters. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:47 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 207,000
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 8:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000 , a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 207,000. This was lower than the the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » US Treasury yields jump ahead of more Fed remarks
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 8:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices fell into the red on Thursday.
  • 8:05 AM » Bond Bears Popping Champagne See Treasury Yields Even Higher
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Bears Popping Champagne See Treasury Yields Even Higher Bloomberg A week after Treasuries mysteriously rallied in the wake of the Federal Reserve lifting its long-term interest-rate forecast, short sellers in the $16 trillion market have reason to celebrate. Ten-year notes tumbled the most in more than a year ... and more »
  • 8:01 AM » A red flashing light in the housing market could spell trouble for the economy
    Published Thu, Oct 04 2018 8:01 AM by CNBC
    One warning sign of trouble could be flashing in the housing market, according to forecaster Lakshman Achuthan.
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