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  • Thu, Oct 18 2018
  • 3:22 PM » Undermining EU budget rules carries high price for all: ECB's Draghi
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 3:22 PM by Reuters
    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - There is no evidence that undermining the European Union's budget limits on borrowing leads to prosperity, but it is clear that such actions are costly for all in the single currency area, the head of the European Central Bank said on Thursday.
  • 1:25 PM » CFPB hints at possible disparate impact rulemaking
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 1:25 PM by
    On October 17, the Bureau released its Fall 2018 Rulemaking Agenda, but it included a surprise for those interested in fair lending. Under the section of the associated blog post entitled "Future Planning" appears the following statement: "The Bureau is considering future [rulemaking] activity with regard to specific areas of consumer financial law of significant... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 1:22 PM » Look Ahead to Existing Home Sales for September
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 1:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for September at 10:00 AM tomorrow. The consensus is for 5.30 million SAAR, down from 5.34 million in August. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will reports sales of 5.20 million SAAR for September and that inventory will be up 4.3% year-over-year. Based on Lawler's estimate, I expect existing home sales to be below the consensus for September . Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. Last month, in August 2018, the consensus was for sales of 5.36 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler also estimated 5.36 million, and the NAR reported 5.34 million (both the consensus and Lawler were very close). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 144 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 67 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11 4.92 4.69 4.67 Aug-11 4.75 4.92...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:22 PM » There's a New Bullard Rule That Finds No Need to Raise Rates
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 1:22 PM by Bloomberg
    There's a New Bullard Rule That Finds No Need to Raise Rates Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard is proposing a new monetary policy rule -- effectively the Bullard rule -- that updates popular policy guidelines such as the Taylor Rule and concludes there's no reason to raise interest rates ... and more »
  • 1:22 PM » Fed's Quarles says uncertainty calls for gradual U.S. rate hikes
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 1:22 PM by CNBC
    The Federal Reserve should continue with its gradual interest rate hikes until it becomes undeniable that a change of course is necessary, an influential Fed governor said on Thursday.
  • 12:39 PM » Trump's attacks on Fed could backfire with higher rates, former vice chairman says
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 12:39 PM by CNBC
    Former Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer said Thursday that the central bank might be tempted to raise rates even more aggressively to show that it can't be influenced by the White House.
  • 12:20 PM » European Commission Threatens to Reject Draft Italian Budget
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 12:20 PM by
    The conflict between Rome and Brussels is escalating, with the European Commission considering whether to reject Italy's draft budget for 2019. If it does, the Italian government would have to quickly produce a revised version.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:19 AM » Leading indicators up 0.5% in September, in line with estimates
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 11:19 AM by CNBC
    The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased by 0.5 percent last month, in line with what economists polled by Refinitiv expected.
  • 11:18 AM » US Recession Chances in Next Two Years Top 60%, JPMorgan Says
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 11:18 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Recession Chances in Next Two Years Top 60%, JPMorgan Says Bloomberg The U.S. economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The probability of a U.S. recession within one year is almost 28 percent, and rises to more than 60 ...
  • 11:17 AM » Remodeling Confidence Remains Solid
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 11:17 AM by
    The Remodeling Market Index (RMI) remained stable with a reading of 58 in the third quarter of 2018, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The RMI has been at or above 50 since the second quarter of 2013, which indicates that more remodelers report market activity is higher than report it is lower (Figure 1). The overall... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:45 AM » Wall Street slips at open on hawkish Fed, weak industrial earnings
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 9:45 AM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks opened lower on Thursday as some industrials reported disappointing results, while the Federal Reserve's minutes showed officials broadly agreed on raising interest rates further, fanning concerns that contributed to last week's sharp selloff.
  • 9:15 AM » Fed will ultimately push the US into recession, strategist says
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 9:15 AM by CNBC
    The Fed has signaled it could raise rates 3.5 percent by 2020.
  • 9:13 AM » BMO Harris Downsizing Mortgage Lending Workforce
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 9:13 AM by
    BMO Harris Downsizing Mortgage Lending Workforce
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:13 AM » Tech and real estate turn to the cloud to protect cities from floods
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 9:13 AM by CNBC
    Intense storms are becoming much more frequent, damaging local infrastructures and budgets. New companies are turning to technology to find ways to mitigate the impact of costly flooding nationwide.
  • 8:05 AM » US is seeing 'relentless rise in household wealth,' Credit Suisse report says
    Published Thu, Oct 18 2018 8:05 AM by CNBC
    Household wealth in the U.S. is continuing to see an "unbroken spell of wealth gains" but China has replaced Japan in second place in the world wealth hierarchy, according to Credit Suisse's latest report on global wealth.
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.94%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 4.44%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.57%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 102-21 (0-09)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 104-16 (0-08)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 106-09 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index -0.10%
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  • Purchase Index 0.12%