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  • Tue, Jan 16 2018
  • 4:32 PM » Weidmann Says Predictions for Mid-2019 ECB Rate Hike Are Realistic
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 4:32 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Weidmann Says Predictions for Mid-2019 ECB Rate Hike Are Realistic Bloomberg Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that analysts' expectations that European Central Bank interest rates won't rise before the middle of next year are reasonable. "Those expectations seem to be grosso modo in line with the current forward guidance ... and more »
  • 4:27 PM » Wells Fargo loses bid to end Philadelphia predatory lending lawsuit
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 4:27 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - A federal judge in Philadelphia on Tuesday rejected Wells Fargo & Co's bid to dismiss that city's lawsuit accusing the largest U.S. mortgage lender of predatory lending targeting black and Hispanic borrowers.
  • 2:48 PM » Update: Predicting the Next Recession
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR January 2018 Update: In 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession ". I repeated the post in January 2015  (and  in the summer of 2015 , in January 2016 , in August 2016 , and in April 2017 ) because of all the recession calls. In late 2015, the recession callers were out in force - arguing the problems in China, combined with the impact on oil producers of lower oil prices (and defaults by energy companies) - would lead to a global recession and drag the US into recession.   I didn't think so - and I was correct. I've added a few updates in italics by year.  Most of the text is from January 2013. A few thoughts on the "next recession" ... Forecasters generally have a terrible record at predicting recessions. There are many reasons for this poor performance. In 1987, economist Victor Zarnowitz wrote in " The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting " that there was too much reliance on trends, and he also noted that predictive failure was also due to forecasters' incentives. Zarnowitz wrote: "predicting a general downturn is always unpopular and predicting it prematurely-ahead of others-may prove quite costly to the forecaster and his customers". Incentives motivate Wall Street economic forecasters to always be optimistic about the future (just like stock analysts). Of course, for the media and bloggers, there is an incentive to always be bearish, because bad news drives traffic (hence the prevalence of yellow journalism ). In addition to paying attention to incentives, we also have to be careful not to rely "heavily on the persistence of trends". One of the reasons I focus on residential investment (especially housing starts and new home sales) is residential investment is very cyclical and is frequently the best leading indicator for the economy. UCLA's Ed Leamer went so far as to argue that: " Housing IS the Business Cycle...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:48 PM » U.S. government shutdown looms amid harsh immigration exchange
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Partisan finger-pointing over immigration policy on Tuesday left the U.S. Congress and the White House stumbling closer to a possible federal government shutdown by the end of the week, although Wall Street held out hopes for a deal to prevent that.
  • 2:48 PM » Beware of Landlords Offering Freebies and Discounts to Get You to Sign
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 2:48 PM by www.realtor.com
    While these concessions might excite renters and nudge them to sign the contract, they can become headaches for unwitting renters. The post Beware of Landlords Offering Freebies and Discounts to Get You to Sign appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:57 PM » Dow hits 26,000 for first time on earnings optimism
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 1:57 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average raced past the 26,000 mark for the first time on Tuesday as fourth-quarter earnings season got off to a strong start following upbeat results from UnitedHealth and Citigroup.
  • 12:58 PM » 'Explosion' in US Bond Supply Endangers Global Market Rally - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 12:58 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg 'Explosion' in US Bond Supply Endangers Global Market Rally Bloomberg A "dramatic" increase in U.S. bond supply over the next year risks unhinging global markets from their bullish foundations, warns Torsten Slok at Deutsche Bank AG. The supply of U.S. government debt will almost double to $1 trillion this year to ... and more »
  • 12:35 PM » Freddie Mac Leads Nation as Top Multifamily Lender for Third Straight Year
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 12:35 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Leads Nation as Top Multifamily Lender for Third Straight Year
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:41 AM » Building Materials Prices and Labor Access Top Challenges for 2018
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 10:41 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The monthly NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index includes a set of "special" questions on a topic of current interest to the housing industry. In December 2017, the special questions asked builders about the problems they faced in 2017 and expect to face in 2018. Topping the list of problems builders faced in 2017 and expect to face in 2018 is... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:16 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $793 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-1504
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 10:16 AM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $793 Million Multifamily K-Deal, K-1504
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 9:56 AM » Employment Rose in Most States
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:56 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and decreased in 17 states and the District of Columbia in November 2017 compared to October 2017 while the level of employment in Maine remained unchanged. Year-over-year, 47 states increased employment while four states lost payroll employment during this time. As a result payroll employment nationwide... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:40 AM » NY Fed: "Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip"
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity continued to expand strongly. The general business conditions index was little changed at 17.7 . ... The index for number of employees fell nineteen points to 3.8, a level suggesting only a small increase in employment levels. The average workweek index fell to a level near zero, indicating that hours worked were unchanged. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook. The index for future business conditions edged up two points to 48.6. The index for future inventories rose to 20.3, a record high, indicating that firms expect to build up inventories significantly in the months ahead. The index for future number of employees rose three points to 26.9, a multiyear high. emphasis added This was slightly below expectations, but still a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:19 AM » Treasury to recommend CRA changes
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 9:19 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    According to a Wall Street Journal article, the Treasury Department expects to make recommendations in early 2018 for changing Community Reinvestment Act regulations. The article quotes a Treasury spokesperson who is reported to have said that CRA modernization is needed to align the statute’s goals and ensure that banks’ investments better support community needs. The... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 8:32 AM » Citi reports $18.3 billion loss on tax law; adjusted profit rises 4 percent
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 8:32 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc on Tuesday posted an $18.3 billion quarterly net loss on one-time tax charges, but said adjusted income rose 4 percent from a year earlier as consumer businesses made up for lower revenue from bond and currency trading. The loss for the fourth quarter was due to a $19 billion write-down on the value of deferred tax assets left from losses in the financial crisis and $3 billion of expenses for the new U.S. tax on past profits earned and kept abroad.
  • 8:31 AM » ECB's Hansson Says Bond Purchases Could End After September
    Published Tue, Jan 16 2018 8:31 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB's Hansson Says Bond Purchases Could End After September Bloomberg The European Central Bank should adjust its policy guidance before the summer and shouldn't have any problems ending net asset purchases in one swoop after September, Governing Council member Ardo Hansson said on Monday. While the Estonian policy maker ... and more »
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.63%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 4.12%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.54%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 104-02 (0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 105-24 (0-01)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 106-31 (0-11)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 5.86%
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  • Refinance Index 9.32%
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  • Purchase Index 2.45%