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  • Fri, Jul 14 2017
  • 2:56 PM » Unchanged CPI Slows Pace to Fed's Inflation Goal - Bloomberg
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:56 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Unchanged CPI Slows Pace to Fed's Inflation Goal Bloomberg Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management, examines U.S. CPI data and how inflation plays into the economy and monetary policy. She speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 2:22 PM » Mark Hulbert: What the flattening yield curve is trying to tell us
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:22 PM by Market Watch
    The spread between short- and long interest rates is an excellent leading indicator, writes Mark Hulbert.
  • 2:18 PM » First Look at 2018 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 2:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BLS reported this morning: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 238.813 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments ), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). • In 2016, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 235.057. This was the highest Q3 average, so we have to compare Q3 this year to last year. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year. Note: The year labeled for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year). CPI-W was up 1.5% year-over-year in June, and although this is very early - we need the data for July, August and September - my current guess is COLA will be positive this year, and will probably be around 1% to 2% this year. Contribution and Benefit Base The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero.  However if the there is even a small increase in COLA (seems likely this year), the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index . From Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustment Must Be Greater Than Zero ... ... any amount that is directly dependent for its value on the COLA would not increase. For example, the maximum Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payment amounts would not increase if there were no COLA. ... if there were no COLA, section...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:53 PM » After lofty views, economists see second quarter growth bumping along at same slow trend
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 1:53 PM by CNBC
    Economists in the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update now see second quarter growth tracking at 2.5 percent, in line with the slow pace of the last several years.
  • 1:25 PM » Will SoFi end up buying fallen/revived lender Sindeo?
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 1:25 PM by The Basis Point
    When I wrote about fallen fintech mortgage lender Sindeo a few weeks ago, it was to share lessons learned about a fellow competitor who was struggling in a very tough business. Now that they've been revived after one of their investors acquired them this week, I want to highlight an unspoken lesson from that piece because it might be the most important lesson of all:
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
  • 11:59 AM » Q2 GDP Forecasts: Moving on Down
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 11:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent on July 14, down from 2.6 percent on July 11. The forecast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.1 percent to 2.9 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2017:Q2 and 1.8% for 2017:Q3. From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales disappointed for a third straight month, declining 0.1% mom in June after no growth in May. Expectations were for a strong 0.3% acceleration. ... The industrial production report later in the day revealed no change in utilities production, was below our assumption and suggests weaker utilities consumption. On balance, these data sliced 0.3pp from 2Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.9% qoq saar. CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will be around 2% in Q2.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:16 AM » Key Measures Show Inflation mostly below 2% in June
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 11:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.1% (0.9% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was unchanged (-0.3% annualized rate) in June. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for June here . Motor fuel declined 29% in June annualized. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.7%. Core PCE is for May and increased 1.4% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 1.1% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 0.9% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.4% annualized. Using these measures, inflation was soft again in June.  Overall these measures are mostly below the Fed's 2% target  (Median CPI is slightly above).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:03 AM » Jamie Dimon blows up at DC's dysfunction
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 11:03 AM by CNBC
    JPMorgan Chase reported quarterly earnings Friday. On the bank's earnings call, CEO Jamie Dimon answered a question about his view on Washington's impact on the economy. The executive proceeded to go on a roughly four-minute rant.
  • 11:00 AM » Landlord alert: New index aims to take the risk out of rental investing
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 11:00 AM by CNBC
    Roofstock claims it can gauge the risk of becoming a landlord right down to the neighborhood level.
  • 10:48 AM » Lack of inflation raises new doubts about Fed ability to hike interest rates this year
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 10:48 AM by CNBC
    Flat consumer inflation and weak June retail sales triggered new doubts that the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates again this year.
  • 10:26 AM » Americans are cutting back on spending
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 10:26 AM by CNN
    American consumers account for the majority of economic growth. And they're cutting back on their spending.
  • 10:11 AM » Consumer sentiment hits 93.1 in July vs. 95 estimate
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 10:11 AM by CNBC
    Economists expected consumer sentiment to reach 95 in July, according to a survey from Thomson Reuters.
  • 9:57 AM » Mortgage lending takes a bite out of bank earnings despite brisk spring buying season
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 9:57 AM by Market Watch
    The big banks are feeling the sting of lower refinancing activity and the loss of servicing rights.
  • 9:35 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in June
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 9:35 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in June for its fifth consecutive monthly increase . Manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent; although factory output has gone up and down in recent months, its level in June was little different from February. The index for mining posted a gain of 1.6 percent in June, just slightly below its pace in May. The index for utilities, however, remained unchanged. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent, primarily as a result of strong increases for mining and utilities. Manufacturing output rose at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, a slightly slower increase than in the first quarter. At 105.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in June was 2.0 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.2 percentage point in June to 76.6 percent , a rate that is 3.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2016) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 9.9 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 76.6% is 3.3% below the average from 1972 to 2015 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in June to 105.2. This is 20.8% above the recession low, and is close to the pre-recession peak. The increase was close to expectations, however the previous months were revised down.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:34 AM » US retail sales fall for the second straight month
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 9:34 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in June for a second straight month, which could temper expectations of strong acceleration in economic growth in the second quarter.
  • 9:02 AM » US consumer prices were unexpectedly unchanged in June
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 9:02 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. Consumer Price Index was forecast to rise 0.2 percent in June, after edging up 0.1 percent a month earlier.
  • 8:23 AM » JPMorgan reports 13 percent rise in quarterly profit
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 8:23 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co , the biggest U.S. bank by assets, reported a 13.4 percent increase in quarterly profit on Friday as gains from higher interest rates more than offset a drop in bond trading.
  • 8:23 AM » Exclusive: ECB wary of putting end-date on quantitative easing - sources
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 8:23 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is keen to keep its asset purchases open-ended rather than setting a potentially distant date on which bond-buying will stop, to retain flexibility in case the outlook sours, three sources familiar with the discussion said.
  • 8:22 AM » Citigroup tops profit and revenue estimates
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 8:22 AM by Market Watch
    Citigroup Inc. said Friday it had net income of $3.9 billion, or $1.28 a share, in the second quarter, down from $4.0 billion, or $1.24 a share, in the year-earlier period. Revenue came to $17.9 billion, up from $17.5 billion. The FactSet consensus was for EPS of $1.21 and revenue of $17.4 billion. "During the quarter, we saw continued momentum in our businesses, with loan and revenue growth across both sides of the house," Chief Executive Michael Corbat said in a statement. The bank said its consumer banking business grew revenue by 5% to $4.9 billion as higher revenue from its card business offset lower revenue in retail banking, driven by lower mortgage revenue. Trading revenue fell 6% as fixed income fell 6%, while equity trading rose 11%. Investment banking revenue rose 22%, due to strong equity underwriting and advisory and strength in debt underwriting. Shares were slightly higher premarket, but have gained 13% in 2017, while the S&P 500 has gained 9%.
  • 8:22 AM » Wells Fargo beats on earnings but falls short on revenue; shares fall
    Published Fri, Jul 14 2017 8:22 AM by CNBC
    Wells Fargo was expected to show earnings of $1.01 share on revenue of $22.466 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
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