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  • Fri, May 19 2017
  • 3:19 PM » The 20 most expensive zip codes for renters in America
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 3:19 PM by CNBC
    16 of them are in Manhattan.
  • 1:23 PM » Merrill: "Will it be a summer break for the Fed?"
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 1:23 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research piece: Will it be a summer break for the Fed? The US stock market witnessed its biggest sell-off of the year on Wednesday while Treasuries rallied and the market priced in a shallower path for rate hikes. The expectation for a June hike slipped to approximately 70% from near certainty earlier in the week. We are puzzled that the market remains committed to a hike in June but skeptical about future hikes in 2018. In our view, June is a close call and will be sensitive to financial conditions in the next few weeks. We are therefore holding to our forecast that the Fed will pause at the upcoming meeting , but the Fed's narrative between now and June 3rd (blackout period begins) will be critical for the call. ... Even before this week's events, we had been arguing that June was a close call for the following reasons: 1. Inflation has slowed : While the March weakness was due to "special factors" the disappointment in April was widespread. This has prompted us to revise down our forecast for core PCE inflation this year to 1.7% from 1.9% previously (see the Hot Topic). Meanwhile, wage growth remains sticky, which could lead the Fed to revise down their estimate of NAIRU in June's SEP. 2. Credit conditions have deteriorated : According to the Fed's own loan officer survey, demand for consumer loans declined over the prior three months while banks have continued to tighten lending standards. 3. Real activity data have surprised to the downside : Survey measures have come off the highs and hard data have been mixed to slightly weaker, sending data surprise measures lower. 4. The Fed's narrative is stale: The April FOMC statement was a placeholder given the uncertainty around the data. The Fed can easily change the narrative about the June meeting in the coming two weeks. ... We think the June meeting remains a close call and would put the probability of a hike at just under even odds - 45% chance of a...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:45 PM » The Fed: Fed minutes may quell fresh doubts about a June rate hike
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 12:45 PM by Market Watch
    Minutes of the Fed's May 2-3 meeting are likely to put an end to doubts about a June interest rate hike.
  • 10:38 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 10 states in April, Three States at New Series Lows
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 10:38 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in April in 10 states , higher in 1 state, and stable in 39 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Nineteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, and 31 states and the District had little or no change ... Colorado had the lowest unemployment rate in April, 2.3 percent, followed by Hawaii and North Dakota, 2.7 percent each. The rates in Arkansas (3.5 percent), Colorado (2.3 percent), and Oregon (3.7 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) New Mexico and Alaska had the highest jobless rates, 6.7 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession. The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976. The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. New Mexico, at 6.7%, had the highest state unemployment rate. The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently no state has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); Only two states are at or above 6% (dark blue). The states are New Mexico (6.7%), and Alaska (6.6%).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:21 AM » St. Louis Fed's Bullard says expected rate hikes 'too aggressive'
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 9:21 AM by CNBC
    The Fed is expected to raise rates at its June policy-setting meeting, and will release fresh economic projections at that time.
  • 8:39 AM » BofA opens debate on lowering mortgage down payments
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 8:39 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The head of Bank of America Corp , the United State's fourth-biggest mortgage lender, said on Thursday banks would be able to supply a bigger share of funding for home purchases if the standard down payment for buyers was cut to 10 percent from 20 percent.
  • 8:39 AM » Custom Home Building Market Growth Slows
    Published Fri, May 19 2017 8:39 AM by
    NAHB's analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates a slowing of the growth rate for the custom home building market. Over the last four quarter period, ending with the first quarter of 2017, there were 168,000 total custom single-family home starts, an increase of almost 2% over the previous four quarters. Custom... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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