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  • Wed, Oct 18 2017
  • 3:56 PM » Here's how the Fed is flattening the yield curve
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 3:56 PM by Market Watch
    Traders betting on the yield curve to steepen are looking into a two-barreled shotgun - a Federal Reserve intent on raising rates and lackluster inflation that should justify less aggressive monetary tightening.
  • 2:12 PM » Fed's Beige Book: "Modest to moderate"expansion, Labor markets "Tight"
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 2:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2017" Reports from all 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate . The Richmond, Atlanta, and Dallas Districts reported major disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in some areas and sectors, including transportation, energy, and agriculture. Manufacturing activity and nonfinancial services expanded modestly to moderately in most Districts. Retail spending rose slowly, while vehicle sales and tourism increased in most Districts. Residential construction continued to increase, and growth in commercial construction was up slightly on balance. Low home inventory levels continued to constrain residential sales in many areas, while nonresidential real estate activity increased slightly overall. Loan demand was generally stable to modestly higher. Growth in the energy sector eased slightly. Agricultural conditions were mixed; while some regions were reporting better-than-expected harvests, low commodity prices continued to weigh down farm incomes. ... Employment growth was modest on balance, with most Districts reporting flat to moderate increases. Labor markets were widely described as tight . Many Districts noted that employers were having difficulty finding qualified workers, particularly in construction, transportation, skilled manufacturing, and some health care and service positions. These shortages were also restraining business growth. Firms in several Districts reported that scarcity of labor, particularly related to construction, would be exacerbated by hurricane recovery efforts. Despite widespread labor tightness, the majority of Districts reported only modest to moderate wage pressures. However, some Districts reported stronger wage pressures in certain sectors, including transportation...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:12 PM » Why Fewer New Homes Are on the Horizon Despite the Housing Shortage
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 2:12 PM by
    Builders received fewer permits to put up new homes in September-and that could have a big impact on the housing market and the dearth of homes for sale. The post Why Fewer New Homes Are on the Horizon Despite the Housing Shortage appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights |® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:35 PM » Why the market is wrong about John Taylor, who Trump might make the Fed chief
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 12:35 PM by CNBC
    For Fed chair, Trump is seriously considering John Taylor, whose academic work suggests that interest rates could be nearly triple where they are now.
  • 11:47 AM » CFPB further updates HMDA Rule guidance materials
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 11:47 AM by
    The CFPB recently posted on its website updated versions of guidance in connection with the revisions to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) rules that become effective on January 1, 2018, and also posted a new guidance item. The CFPB updated the chart entitled Collection and Reporting of HMDA Information about Ethnicity and Race, and... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 11:38 AM » Bond market flashing warning sign even as stocks rally to new highs
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 11:38 AM by CNBC
    The bond market is warning that trouble could be on the horizon either from an economic slowdown or eventual recession.
  • 11:16 AM » 'The housing market can't take the shock of a natural event,' real estate economist warns
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 11:16 AM by CNBC
    Given the acute construction labor shortage, reconstruction and its repercussions in residential real estate could be yet another disaster.
  • 11:04 AM » AIA: Architecture Billings Index "Backslides Slightly" in September
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 11:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Backslides Slightly After seven months of steady growth in the  demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) paused in September.  As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the September ABI score was 49.1, down from a score of 53.7 in the previous month . This score reflects a slight decrease in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.0, down from a reading of 62.5 the previous month, while the new design contracts index eased somewhat from 54.2 to 52.9. "We've seen unexpectedly strong numbers in design activity for most of 2017, so the pause in September should be viewed in that context" said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Project inquiries and new design contracts remain healthy, and the continued strength in most sectors and regions indicates stability industry-wide." ... • Regional averages: Northeast (56.9), South (54.0), Midwest (50.4), West (48.8) • Sector index breakdown: commercial / industrial (54.0), mixed practice (52.2), multi-family residential (51.0), institutional (51.0) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.1 in September, down from 53.7 in August. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:55 AM » California housing market eases into fall homebuying season, C.A.R. Reports
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 10:55 AM by PR Newswire
    LOS ANGELES, Oct. 18, 2017 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- California's housing market eased into the fall homebuying season as seasonally adjusted sales rose both month-to-month and year-to-year in September, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.   Closed escrow sal...
  • 10:23 AM » Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield hits fresh 2008 high as prospect of December hike looms
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 10:23 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury prices fall, pushing yields higher, on Wednesday as expectations for a rate increase in December continue to gain traction, adding to selling momentum in government bonds.
  • 10:08 AM » Rising seas threaten nearly $1 trillion worth of US homes, and most are moderately priced: Zillow
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 10:08 AM by CNBC
    More than $900 billion worth of U.S. residential real estate could be lost, a new report says.
  • 8:56 AM » Mnuchin: The stock market will see 'significant' drop if tax reform doesn't pass
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 8:56 AM by CNBC
    In a podcast, Mnuchin gives an "absolute guarantee" President Trump will sign a tax reform bill this year.
  • 8:53 AM » The only thing scary about the Dow is that nothing seems to scare it
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 8:53 AM by CNBC
    The S&P 500 has not had a drawdown greater than 3 percent this year. Nothing at all seems to move the needle. Why is that?
  • 8:52 AM » Mulvaney Sees Tax Bill Pushed to 2018 If Budget Isn't Approved
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 8:52 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Mulvaney Sees Tax Bill Pushed to 2018 If Budget Isn't Approved Bloomberg White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney warned that not passing a budget resolution this week would likely result in tax legislation being delayed until next year. "There's still a chance it gets done this year but more likely it goes over into the ... and more »
  • 8:51 AM » The Wall Street Journal: Germany's top court denies request to halt ECB bond buying
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 8:51 AM by Market Watch
    Germany's top court threw out a cease-and-desist request that could have halted the European Central Bank's giant bond-buying program, offering some comfort to ECB policy makers as they prepare to extend the purchases into 2018.
  • 8:51 AM » U.S. housing starts fall to one-year low
    Published Wed, Oct 18 2017 8:51 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilding fell to a one-year low in September as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma disrupted the construction of single-family homes in the South, suggesting that housing probably remained a drag on economic growth in the third quarter.
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