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  • Tue, Oct 10 2017
  • 3:45 PM » Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2017
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 3:45 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2017 . I followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an overview of what I expected in 2017 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong). By request, here is a quick Q3 review. I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments: 10) Question #10 for 2017: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in 2017? I was wrong on inventory last year, but right now my guess is active inventory will increase in 2017 (inventory will decline seasonally in December and January, but I expect to see inventory up again year-over-year in December 2017).   My reasons for expecting more inventory are 1) inventory is historically low (lowest for November since 2000), 2) and the recent increase in interest rates. According to the August NAR report on existing home sales , inventory was down 6.5% year-over-year in August, and the months-of-supply was at 4.2 months. This was the smallest year-over-year decline this year, but it appears unlikely inventory will be up by year end.  This is a key metric to watch! 9) Question #9 for 2017: What will happen with house prices in 2017? Inventories will probably remain low in 2017, although I expect inventories to increase on a year-over-year basis by December of 2017.  Low inventories, and a decent economy suggests further price increases in 2017. Perhaps higher mortgage rates will slow price appreciation.  If we look back at the "taper tantrum" in 2013, price appreciation slowed somewhat over the next year - but that was from a high level.  In June 2013, the Case-Shiller National index was up 9.3% year-over-year.  By June 2014, the index was up 6.3% year-over-year. If inventory increases year-over-year as I expect by December 2017...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:00 PM » CoreLogic Analysis Shows More Than 172,000 Homes at Risk from Wildfires in Napa and Santa Rosa
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 2:00 PM by
    According to CoreLogic ®  hazard risk analysis, a total of 172,117 homes with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $65 billion are at some level of risk from the wildfires in the Napa and Santa Rosa metropolitan areas. The analysis is calculated based on homes within these two Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) and on five active fires – three in Napa (Patrick, Atlas and Tubbs) and two in Santa Rosa (Nuns and Pocket). Statewide, a total of 9.1 million homes with a combined RCV of $3.1 trillion are at some level of risk from wildfires in California. Of the total at-risk homes in Napa and Santa Rosa, 11,058, or 6 percent, with an estimated RCV of more than $5 billion are at significant risk of damage, falling in the High and Extreme risk categories, according to CoreLogic data. Although the majority of homes, 161,059, or 94 percent, are at Low or Moderate risk of damage, wildfire can easily expand to adjacent properties and cause significant damage even if a property is not considered high risk in its own right. Table 1 shows the total number of homes and RCV at risk in Napa, Santa Rosa and California. These figures are based on the CoreLogic Wildfire Risk Score (1-100), which indicates the level of susceptibility to wildfire damage and includes risk associated due to the property’s location and close proximity to other high-risk properties or areas. The higher the score, the greater the risk of damage. Table 1: Total Number of Homes and RCV by Risk Level CBSA Low (1-50) Moderate (51-60) High (61-80) Extreme (81-100) Napa 35,130 415 1,021 1,564   $13,512,553,932 $189,688,863 $444,491,582 $742,193,815 Santa Rosa 122,925 2,589 5,766 2,705   $46,290,156,192 $924,485,462 $2,677,530,858 $1,164,512,382 California 8,322,108 136,913 382,293 263,152   $2,835,909,802,454 $56,195,773,817 $163,419,491,775 $90,261,926,369 The reconstruction cost values represent estimates to rebuild the home, taking...
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  • 2:00 PM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in August
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 2:00 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for July. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 6.9 Percent in August 2017 August National Home Prices Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.9 percent in August 2017 compared with August 2016 and increased month over month by 0.9 percent in August 2017 compared with July 2017. ...The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from August 2017 to August 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.1 percent from August 2017 to September 2017. emphasis added CR Note: The YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last couple of years. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for over five consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:56 PM » And then there were two: Powell, Warsh at front of Fed chair race
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 1:56 PM by CNBC
    The contest for who will become the next head of the Federal Reserve appears to be coming down to Kevin Warsh and Jerome "Jay" Powell.
  • 1:56 PM » Stock record ride ‘has reached epic proportions,' Morgan Stanley says
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 1:56 PM by Market Watch
    Wall Street isn't just in a bull market, it's in an "epic" one.
  • 12:57 PM » Trump's pick for Fed chair might not be an economist
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 12:57 PM by CNN
    President Trump will soon make one of his most important decisions: Nominating the next leader of the Federal Reserve.
  • 12:40 PM » Top Jumbo Lenders So Far In 2017
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 12:40 PM by The Basis Point
    Stats halfway through 2017 from Inside Mortgage Finance The post Top Jumbo Lenders So Far In 2017 appeared first on The Basis Point .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
  • 12:11 PM » Americans are getting comfortable with debt again, raising risk for financial institutions, Moody's says
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 12:11 PM by Market Watch
    Households in certain income categories are increasing their debt - or taking on especially high amounts, which may pose a risk to banks and securitizations, according to a credit-ratings agency.
  • 11:41 AM » Fed Minutes May Underline Depth of Backing for December Hike
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 11:41 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Minutes May Underline Depth of Backing for December Hike Bloomberg Federal Reserve officials last month stuck with their forecast to raise interest rates one more time this year. A description of the debate during that confidential meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, to be released at 2 p.m. on Wednesday ... and more »
  • 11:23 AM » Growth Trend Is No Longer a Friend to Bond-Market Investors
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 11:23 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Growth Trend Is No Longer a Friend to Bond-Market Investors Bloomberg Synchronized and stable economic growth has lulled market volatility this year. Now it's raising the danger that yields will rise in concert around the world. Rising global rates could set off a "negative" feedback loop as investors facing losses on ... and more »
  • 10:59 AM » What's behind the sudden optimism among homebuyers
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 10:59 AM by CNBC
    There has been a sudden burst of optimism among potential homebuyers in a monthly sentiment survey from Fannie Mae.
  • 10:47 AM » Gap Between Owner and Appraiser Opinions of Home Values Narrows for Fourth Straight Month
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 10:47 AM by PR Newswire
    DETROIT, Oct. 10, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Homeowners still don't see eye-to-eye with those who appraise their homes. Appraiser's valuations were 1.14 percent lower, in September, than what owner's expected - according to the National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). Even...
  • 10:16 AM » Bond Report: Treasurys see modest buying as investors await Fed minutes
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 10:16 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury prices fell, pushing yields higher, on Tuesday as investors waited for the Fed minutes from September's policy meeting on Wednesday.
  • 10:09 AM » NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index decreased in September
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 10:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Business Optimism Slides in September, Expected business conditions tumble in NFIB Optimism Index The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism tumbled in September from 105.3 to 103 led by a steep drop in sales expectations, not just in hurricane-affected states, but across the country . "The temptation is to blame the decline on the hurricanes in Texas and Florida, but that is not consistent with our data," said Juanita Duggan, NFIB President and CEO. "Small business owners across the country were measurably less enthusiastic last month." ... Job creation weakened in the small business sector as business owners reported an adjusted average employment change per firm of -0.17 workers . Decreases were reported by owners in six of the nine Census regions, so it wasn't just a hurricane effect . ... Nineteen percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem (unchanged), second only to taxes. This is the top ranked problem for those in construction (30 percent) and manufacturing (28 percent), getting more votes than taxes and regulations. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 103.0 in September.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:43 AM » Lot Values Stable at Record High
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 9:43 AM by
    Single-family lot prices remained at record high levels in 2016, with half of the lots priced at or above $45,000. According to NAHB's analysis of the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC) data, the median lot value reached $45,000 for the first time in 2015 exceeding the previous record of $43,000 reached in 2006, in the midst of the housing... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:33 AM » US Treasurys higher as investors switch focus to Fed speeches, bills auctions
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 8:33 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher Tuesday, as investors switched focus to the next batch of speeches set to be delivered by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
  • 8:27 AM » "On Track For a December Rate Hike"
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 8:27 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Tim Duy at Fed Watch: On Track For a December Rate Hike The headline figure on nonfarm payrolls report came in well below already withered expectations, but the disappointment was more than compensated for in the details of both the establishment and household survey. The Fed is looking for data that allows them to overlook the weak inflation data. This was just that sort of data. ... An unemployment rate at 4.2% will rattle Fed officials already worried about pushing too far below full employment under the current projections. This will go a long way toward offsetting their nagging worries about low inflation. ... The data calendar is a bit slower this week. Look for the JOLTS report (Wednesday), inflation indicator reports PPI (Thursday) and CPI (Friday), and readings on the demand side of the economy from retail sales and business inventories (both on Friday). In addition, we have plenty of Fed speakers, including regional Presidents Kashkari (Tuesday), Evans (Wednesday), Bostic (Thursday), and Rosengren and Kaplan (Friday). I don't think we will see anything new from these speakers regarding monetary policy. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell speaks Thursday (keynote address on emerging markets) and Friday ("Are Rules Made to be Broken? Discretion and Monetary Policy," an event for which I foolishly forgot to make an effort to attend). Neither speech will likely give direct policy guidance, but with Powell rumored to be a contender for the top spot at the Fed, they will offer additional opportunity to explore his thinking. Bottom Line: December rate hike still a go; low unemployment outweighs low inflation for now. That will change next year if job growth slows further and unemployment stabilizes.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:18 AM » Bill Gross of Janus blames US Fed for 'fake markets'
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 8:18 AM by CNBC
    Influential bond investor Bill Gross of Janus Henderson Investors said Monday that financial markets are artificially compressed and capitalism distorted because of the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy.
  • 8:18 AM » Japan Slashes Treasury Purchases as Demand for US Debt Wanes
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 8:18 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Japan Slashes Treasury Purchases as Demand for US Debt Wanes Bloomberg Japanese investors are slashing their purchases of U.S. government bonds, the latest sign of waning demand for Treasuries as the Federal Reserve starts to rein in its balance sheet. Investors bought 597.7 billion yen ($5.3 billion) of American ... and more »
  • 8:18 AM » CoreLogic Reports Serious Delinquency Rate for Home Loans Holds Steady at a Near 10-Year Low
    Published Tue, Oct 10 2017 8:18 AM by
    Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell Almost 1 Percentage Point Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.2 Percentage Points Early-Stage Delinquencies Declined 0.3 Percentage Points CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 4.6 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in July 2017. This represents a 0.9 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with July 2016 when it was 5.5 percent. As of July 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.7 percent, down from 0.9 percent in July 2016 and the lowest since the rate was also 0.7 percent in July 2007. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2 percent in July 2017, down slightly from 2.3 percent in July 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in July 2017 was 0.7 percent, unchanged from July 2016. The serious delinquency rate (90 days or more past due) declined from 2.5 percent in July 2016 to 1.9 percent in July 2017 and remains near the 10-year low of 1.7 percent reached in July 2007. Alaska was the only state to experience a year-over-year increase in its serious delinquency rate. “While the U.S. foreclosure rate remains at a 10-year low as of July, the rate across the 100 largest metro areas varies from 0.1 percent in Denver to 2.2 percent in New York,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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