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  • Fri, Jul 17 2009
  • 4:02 PM » Expect Seven Years of Subpar Growth and High Unemployment
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 4:02 PM by Google News
    BLS data shows . Unemployment topped 10 percent in 15 states and the District of Columbia last month, according to federal data released Friday. The rate in Michigan surpassed 15 percent, the first time any state hit that mark since 1984. The Federal Reserve this week projected that the national unemployment rate, currently at a 26-year high of 9.5 percent, will pass 10 percent by the end of the year. The Labor Department said it's the first time in 25 years that any state has suffered an unemployment rate of at least 15 percent. In 1984, it was West Virginia. The state unemployment report underscores the damage that the longest recession since World War II has inflicted on companies, workers and communities. The other 14 states where unemployment topped 10 percent last month were: Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina and Tennessee. While Michigan's rate was the highest in the U.S. in June, the record-high for the state was 16.9 percent in November 1982. Fed Walks Prediction Up As noted in the Fed previously forecast the unemployment rate at 8.4% for 2009 while I called for 9.8% by August. The Fed's adverse scenario for 2009 was 8.9%. Here are the Fed's assumptions for the recently conducted "stress-free test" as laid out in the . Now that the unemployment rate is 9.5% the Fed is calling for 10% by the end of the year. We could see that by September. What the Fed is doing is slowly walking its prediction up, to match the dismal jobs picture as it unfolds. No Return to ‘Full’ Employment Until 2015 Former Fed governor Meyer sees . The U.S. won’t see a return to “full” employment for another six years, helping to hold down inflation, according to former Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer. “I think there’s going to be a long legacy of the financial crisis and the deep recession,” Meyer said in an interview today on Bloomberg Radio. The economy...
  • 4:02 PM » Celebrate Appraiser's Independence, Not Yet!!!
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 4:02 PM by Google News
    [Editor's Note: I've been taking a little time off from Appraisal Scoop and so apologize for not keeping up with the "normal" flow of articles. This article by Bryan Reynolds is a little late getting posted but is still great food-for-thought!] Celebrate Appraisers Independence, Not Yet!!! by Bryan S. Reynolds, AQB Certified USPAP Instructor The 4th of July is around the corner and millions of Americans will celebrate their Independence. However should the appraiser be celebrating their appraiser independence as a result of the HVCC or any other pending or proposed legislation? Although the number of requests to “hit the number” may be fading, appraisers are certainly shackled by the client dictating requirements many of which are unreasonable and unfounded. Yet when clients demand appraisers to jump it appears many appraisers typical response is How High? It's time for appraisers to stand up, become truly independent and learn to say no! Let’s have the tail quit wagging the dog. When you are asked to do something you should not do or something perverse have the courage and backbone to say no. Recently I appraised a property on 13 acres with a portion of the site being in a flood hazard zone. The client received a flood certification indicating the improvement was not located in the flood zone. After repeated requests, which turned into demands, to have me change the first page of the URAR to check the box no under flood zone I was successful in speaking directly to the underwriter. If you get to speak with the underwriter I have found most are pretty reasonable people. After providing her with the Fannie Mae Guideline, as listed below, she said thank you and nothing further was needed from me. Special Flood Hazard Areas Fannie Mae’s appraisal report forms provide an area for the appraiser to indicate whether the property is located in a Special Flood Hazard Area that is identified on the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Flood Insurance...
  • 3:34 PM » Fannie Mae Bumps Up 125% Program Start Date to August 1
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 3:34 PM by view.exacttarget.com
    To help lenders get started with originating Refi Plus™ loans under the manual underwriting option with LTV ratios of 105.01-125 percent, Fannie Mae will make this option available for whole loan committing beginning August 1 -- one month sooner than the September 1 date included in Announcement 09-23: Updates to Home Affordable Refinance -- 125 Percent LTV Limit for Refi Plus Loans.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: view.exacttarget.com
  • 11:54 AM » States: More Record Unemployment Rates in June
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 11:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: the BLS started keeping state records in 1976. From the BLS: Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate, 15.2 percent, in June. (The last state to have an unemployment rate of 15.0 percent or higher was West Virginia in March 1984.) The states with the next highest rates were Rhode Island, 12.4 percent; Oregon, 12.2 percent; South Carolina, 12.1 percent; Nevada, 12.0 percent; California, 11.6 percent; Ohio, 11.1 percent; and North Carolina, 11.0 percent. The Nevada, Rhode Island, and South Carolina rates were the highest on record for those states. Florida, at 10.6 percent, Georgia, at 10.1 percent, and Delaware, at 8.4 percent, also posted series highs .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:18 AM » Housing: Sticky Prices
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 8:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier today, DataQuick that home sales increased in the California Bay Area. The report mentioned "a perception among potential buyers that prices have bottomed out." First, a little history: When the housing bubble was inflating, the demand for housing surged with the widespread use of non-traditional mortgage products. Looking at a supply-demand diagram, this surge in demand pushed the curve to the right. At the same time speculators were buying up properties, reducing the supply with the intention of selling later at a higher price. This activity shifted the supply curve to the left (this activity was classic storage). So with the surge in demand, combined with speculators removing supply from the market, prices skyrocketed. This is exactly what I described in April 2005: Of course, once the bubble burst, the supply curve shifted back to the right with speculators unloading properties and all the distressed sales. At the same time, demand declined sharply as speculators disappeared and lenders tightened standards. If housing was a perfect market, prices would have fallen rapidly to the market clearing price. However housing prices are sticky downward - as I described in 2005 post: "[R]eal estate prices display strong persistence and are sticky downward. Sellers tend to want a price close to recent sales in their neighborhood, and buyers, sensing prices are declining, will wait for even lower prices. This means real estate markets do not clear immediately, and what we usually observe is a drop in transaction volumes." This doesn't mean prices are stuck - just sticky. Prices have been falling in most areas for three years, and will probably fall further. And this brings us back to the DataQuick article. Just because demand is picking up a little, doesn't mean prices have bottomed. Note: Ignore the median price in the article - that is rising because of the change in mix. Assume the following diagram shows the current housing market supply...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:17 AM » Earnings season vs Revenue season
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 8:17 AM by Google News
    Earnings season continues to be on a solid track with upside surprises from IBM, GOOG, BAC, GE, and MAT. However, if we refer to Q2 reports as Revenue season in terms of gauging economic activity, the quarter so far from companies that have reported is more of a mixed bag. The discrepancy is similar to what we saw in Q with a majority of companies beating EPS estimates but missing revenue estimates. It’s a tribute to corporate America’s ability to keep a lid on costs and improve margins but also highlights the tough economic environment. Most importantly, guidance on the economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. June Housing Starts are expected to total 530k, little changed with May but still above the record low of 454k in April. In terms of a market that still has too much inventory, let’s root for less starts and permits. The sustainability of any US recovery still comes down to home prices and the consumer.
  • 8:17 AM » JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Sounds Off on the Future of Credit Cards
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 8:17 AM by Seeking Alpha
    submits: CEO Jamie Dimon gave us his vision of the future of credit cards during ) Q2 conference call . Dimon predicted that will incur a few years of credit card losses until the business is restructured. Even though the new regulatory environment is still evolving, it is clear that the old business model of credit cards as a profitable standalone product is over. Credit cards will become a tool in the overall customer relationship, rather than a product marketed as a single service. JPM will begin issuing credit cards based on the customers’ behavior observed by their retail banking organization. Dimon sees many new credit card products evolving from this relationship model.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
  • 8:17 AM » Mega Jumbo Loan Default Rates Rising in Florida
    Published Fri, Jul 17 2009 8:17 AM by Seeking Alpha
    Mortgage defaults in Florida are nothing new. Even my four-year old niece is aware that there is a problem with condos in Miami. However a call from a friend prompted a closer look. This fellow owns a house in a 600 home gated community in Collier County FL. This place has all the amenities and has been around for fifteen years. Two years ago the minimum house price was $1mm and the max was $3mm. Because of the relative age and stability of the resident members it was believed that values would not be impacted as they were in newer and more speculative communities.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
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More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.89%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.25%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.12%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 106-21 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 108-01 (0-01)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 108-29 (0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 23.07%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 26.40%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 10.33%
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