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  • Wed, Nov 25 2009
  • 5:59 PM » Bankruptcies Jump, Hitting Highest Level in Four Years
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:59 PM by CNBC
    Filings rose 33 percent in the third quarter to the highest number since 2005, government data show, as rising unemployment and tight credit made it more difficult for consumers and businesses to stay current on their debts.
  • 5:58 PM » Judge Voids Mortgage Due to Bank’s “Bad Faith”
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:58 PM by Google News
    “[The adjustable rate bank note issued Aug. 4, 2004 is' hereby canceled, voided, nullified, set aside and is of no further force and effect . . . the lender and its successors are barred, prohibited and foreclosed from attempting, in any manner, directly or indirectly, to enforce any provision of" the mortgage loan." -Suffolk County Supreme Court Justice Jeffrey A. Spinner "We never asked for this. I was shocked, honestly. It's not like we said, 'Judge, please throw the loan away.' We just wanted them [the bank] to be reasonable.” -Greg Horoski, East Patchogue Home owner. > Here’s a fascinating development: A Long Island judge voided the mortgage of a home-owner after the legal team for the creditor behaved in an egregious manner. The lender lied in various dunning notices and court papers, claiming a balance due of $527,437.73, including an escrow overdraft of $46,627.88 for advanced taxes — even though the outstanding loan balance was $283,992.48 as of Aug. 10 and the taxes were already paid. Excerpt: A Suffolk judge awarded a Long Island family their East Patchogue house, wiping the slate clean on their mortgage debt and ruling that the bank holding their home loan had acted in a manner “so completely devoid of good faith that equity cannot be permitted to intervene on its behalf.” In a terse, no-holds-barred decision rendered Nov. 19, Suffolk County Supreme Court Justice Jeffrey A. Spinner blasted the actions of IndyMac Mortgage Services, a division of OneWest Bank F.S.B., and its representatives – and awarded the home to Diana J. Yano-Horoski and husband Greg Horoski. The decision came after a series of state-mandated, pre-foreclosure settlement conferences between the lenders and borrowers of subprime loans. Spinner wrote in his decision: “It was celeritously made clear to the Court that Plaintiff had no good faith intention whatsoever of resolving this matter in any manner other than a complete and forcible devolution of title...
  • 5:57 PM » Ratio of Existing to New Home Sales
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:57 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is more on the "distressing gap" between existing and new home sales. The following graph shows the ratio of existing home sales divided by new home sales through October. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This ratio has increased again to a new all time high. The ratio of existing to new home sales increased at first because of the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties. The recent increase in the ratio was due primarily to the timing of the first time homebuyer tax credit (before the extension). New home sales are counted when the contract is signed, and usually before construction begins. So to close before the original Dec 1st deadline, the contract had to be signed early this Summer (that might explain the dip in the ratio earlier this year). Existing home sales are counted when escrow closes, and escrow usually takes less than 60 days. So the recent surge in sales were boosted by buyers rushing to beat the tax credit. And this has pushed the ratio to a new record. The second graph shows the same information with existing home sales (left axis), and new home sales (right axis). This is updated through the October data released this morning. Although distressed sales will stay elevated for some time, I expect this gap to eventually close. The ratio could decline because of an increase in new home sales, or a decrease in existing home sales - I expect a combination of both.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 5:56 PM » Federal Reserve to run public service announcement with credit card tips for holiday shoppers
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:56 PM by www.federalreserve.gov
    Federal Reserve to run public service announcement with credit card tips for holiday shoppers
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.federalreserve.gov
  • 5:55 PM » Fannie Mae: New Affordable Housing Options
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:55 PM by Realtor.Org
    The government-sponsored enterprise is seeking to promote home purchases by low-income buyers and owner occupants.
  • 5:54 PM » Tax Credit Quandaries Answered
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:54 PM by Realtor.Org
    Buyers are likely to have many questions about their eligibility for the extended and expanded tax credits. Here are some key features.
  • 5:53 PM » Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:53 PM by CNBC
    Citi Mortgage Reveals What Treasury Won't
  • 5:52 PM » HUD Lightens Up on FHA Second Appraisal Requirements
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:52 PM by www.mortgageprocessor.org
    Written By: Stacey Sprain, Certified Ambassador Loan Processor (CALP) which was issued November 18, 2009 communicates the immediate elimination of requirements for second appraisals on high balance loans in declining market areas. Second appraisals are no longer required effective for cases pulled on and after November 19th. As you may recall, second appraisal requirements were originally added for high balance loans in declining market areas with the issuance of which HUD now rescinds in its entirety. HUD has also rescinded the second appraisal requirements listed in which originally implemented second appraisal requirements for cash-out refinances exceeding $417000 loan amounts when the subject property was considered in an area of market decline. The only remaining second appraisal requirements apply for situations that fall under HUD’s Property Flipping Prohibition. These requirements were communicated in which states the following second appraisal requirements: • If the resale date is between 91 and 180 days following acquisition by the seller, the lender is required to obtain a second appraisal made by another appraiser if the resale price is 100 percent or more over the price paid by the seller when the property was acquired. • If the resale date is more than 90 days after the date of acquisition by the seller but before the end of the twelfth month following the date of acquisition, FHA reserves the right to require additional documentation from the lender to support the resale value if the resale price is 5 percent or greater than the lowest sales price of the property during the preceding 12 months. At FHA’s discretion, such documentation may include, but is not limited to, an appraisal from another appraiser. Underwriters are also allowed to use discretion and may require review appraisals to justify questionable value in certain circumstances. The important thing I always remind people in these situations is to always request an interior/exterior inspection...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.mortgageprocessor.org
  • 5:50 PM » Judge blasts bad bank, erases $525G debt
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 5:50 PM by www.nypost.com
    A Long Island couple is home free after an outraged judge gave them an amazing Thanksgiving present -- canceling their debt to ruthless bankers trying to toss them out on the street. Suffolk Judge Jeffrey Spinner wiped out $525,000 in mortgage payments demanded by a California bank, blasting its "harsh, repugnant, shocking and repulsive" acts. The bombshell decision leaves Diane Yano-Horoski and her husband, Greg Horoski, owing absolutely no money on their ranch house in East Patchogue.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nypost.com
  • 1:53 PM » FHA, Fannie/Freddie Tell it Like it is (to them)
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:53 PM by www.orep.org
    by David Brauner, Editor The appraiser Valuation 2009 conference in New Orleans this month offered unprecedented access to key regulators, AMCs and other decision makers regarding the future of the appraisal industry- that’s the good news. The bad news is that you may not like what they are saying. Honchos from FHA, Fannie Mae, [...]
  • 1:43 PM » FDIC Data Reflects Continued Economic Slump
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:43 PM by Seeking Alpha
    The Third Quarter FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile shows a deteriorating economy. Case-Shiller shows stability in home prices, but I project this to be just a pause. The Number of Problem Banks increased dramatically in the third quarter to 552 from 416. What’s significant in this is that 50 banks failed in the third quarter, up from 24 in the second quarter and 21 in the first quarter. An additional 29 banks have failed since the end of the third quarter. If you assume that the 50 seized banks were on the Problem List, the FDIC added 186 banks to the list in the third quarter. Most bank failures and the 552 problem banks are overexposed to C&D and CRE loans, which I have been warning about since April 2006. The Deposit Insurance Fund was in arrears by $8.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. The FDIC notes that they have big enough cash cushion to make it to the end of the year when member banks must pony up $45 billion in pre-paid fees for 2010 through 2012. If you add the cost of the 29 failures so far in the fourth quarter the Deposit Insurance Fund is $10.4 billion in the hole. The FDIC expects bank closures to cost the Deposit Insurance Fund $100 billion through 2013, but by June 2013 the fund must return to 1.15% of insured deposits. This will be difficult without help from tax payers through the $100 billion line of credit with the US Treasury. The FDIC has a $500 billion temporary line of credit with the US Treasury, but considers tapping that a last resort. In my opinion, with almost 3,000 banks overexposed to C&D and CRE loans, several banks will not be able to pre-pay Deposit Insurance Fund fees, which will put them on the FDIC list of Problem banks. Noncurrent loans continue to rise at a faster pace than Reserves for Losses. Reserves for Losses increased $9.2 billion in the third quarter, while Noncurrent Loans increased $34.7 billion. Year-over-year reserves are up 40.8% while noncurrent loans are up 95.7%. This puts significant stress on the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
  • 1:42 PM » Treasury On Mortgage Modifications
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:42 PM by CNBC
    A little follow up to my post yesterday. I knew I'd probably upset the folks at Treasury, and I did.
  • 1:41 PM » Housing Bottom? “Not Even Close”
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:41 PM by Google News
    > Source : Aaron Task Tech TIcker, Nov 24, 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/378885/Housing-Bottom-”Not-Even-Close”-Barry-Ritholtz-Says?
  • 1:40 PM » US Federal Tax Dollars Payments/Allotments by State
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:40 PM by Google News
    Via , we get this map showing the states that contribute the most in Federal tax dollars, and consumes the most in Federal Tax monies: > click for ginormous chart > Hat tip
  • 1:39 PM » A Case Study: To Default or Not?
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:39 PM by llenrock.com
    I recently bought a duplex both as an investment and as a place to live for the next few years. Because I intended to live there and it was less than four units, I was able to get a 96.5% loan to value, 30 year fixed rate 5.00% mortgage. I know, I was amazed as [...]
  • 1:38 PM » "Interest Rates at Center Stage"
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:38 PM by Google News
    Like Tim Duy in the post above this one, David Altig is also puzzled by analysts who, to quote from the highlighted in Tim's post, that "banks might seek to reduce appreciably their excess reserves as the economy improves by purchasing securities or by easing credit standards and expanding their lending substantially": : In case you were just yesterday wondering if interest rates could get any lower, The Treasury sold $44 billion of two-year notes at a yield of 0.802 percent, the lowest on record, as demand for the safety of U.S. government securities surges going into year-end. "Demand for safety" is not the most bullish sounding phrase, and it is not intended to be. It does, in fact, reflect an important but oft-neglected interest rate fundamental: Adjusting for inflation and risk, interest rates are low when times are tough. ... The intuition behind this point really is pretty simple. When the economy is struggling ... the demand for loans sags. All else equal, interest rates fall. In the current environment, of course, that "all else equal" bit is tricky, but is informative: "In the October survey, domestic banks indicated that they continued to tighten standards and terms over the past three months on all major types of loans to businesses and households. ..." Demand also appears to be quite weak: "Demand for most major categories of loans at domestic banks reportedly continued to weaken, on balance, over the past three months." This economic fundamental is, in my opinion, a good way to make sense of the FOMC's most recent : The Committee… continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. Not everyone is buying my story, of course, and there is a growing global chorus of : Germany's new finance minister...
  • 1:38 PM » Changes in the Composition of Consumption
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:38 PM by Google News
    I was curious how the the composition of durable and nondurable goods consumption changes during recessions. This graph shows the monthly variation in the ratio of nondurable to durable consumption since 1959 (click on figures for larger versions): And, for a better comparison over time, the log of the ratio: As you can see, there has been a fairly consistent decline in this ratio over time, from about 7 dollars of nondurables per dollar of durables in 1960 to close to 2 dollars in nondurables per dollar of durables today. But there is also variation around the declining trend. Most of the deviation around the trend appears to be due to recessions, but there are also time periods such as the late 70s and the late 80s where the series takes noticeable upward turn outside of recessionary conditions (and in other cases the increase in the ratio appears to lead -- as opposed to being caused by -- the recession, e.g. in the 69-70 and 73-74 downturns). In most recessions the ratio rises as consumers cut back on durables more than they cut back on nondurables, and the ratio falls once the recession ends (the 2000 recession is an obvious exception). What has happened in this recession? In the earlier part of the downturn, the ratio rose abruptly (this is the unlogged series). It then fell sharply in August of this year, and increased again in September. The dip in the ratio this August appears to be due to the Cash for Clunkers program: What will happen after the crisis? If the economy grows as before and as incomes grow along with it, there's no reason to rule out the possibility that the ratio will continue to decline. So it will be interesting to see if the economy picks up this long-run downward trend again once things return to (the new?) normal. In the meantime, though I'm not quite sure what to make of this ratio, whatever good news might have been taken from its sharp decline in August was surely tempered in September.
  • 1:38 PM » Half of Bank Losses May Be Hidden, I.M.F. Chief Says
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 1:38 PM by dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com
    Half of the losses suffered by banks could still be hidden in their balance sheets, more so in Europe than in the United States, the International Monetary Fund's chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, told Le Figaro.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com
  • 11:15 AM » October PCE and Saving Rate
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 11:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BEA: Personal income increased $30.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $68.3 billion, or 0.7 percent. ... Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in October, in contrast to a decrease of 0.7 percent in September. ... Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $490.3 billion in October, compared with $510.4 billion in September. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.4 percent in October, compared with 4.6 percent in September. Click on graph for large image. This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month centered average for smoothing) through the October Personal Income report. The saving rate was 4.4% in October. I expect the saving rate to continue to rise - possibly to 8% or more - slowing the growth in PCE. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . The quarterly change in PCE is based on the change from the average in one quarter, compared to the average of the preceding quarter. The colored rectangles show the quarters, and the blue bars are the real monthly PCE. Note that PCE in Q3 was distorted by the cash-for-clunkers program (especially August). Just using the October numbers, PCE would increase at about a 2.6% annualized rate in Q4. In general PCE growth will probably be below normal well into 2010 as households continue to repair their balance sheets.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:15 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decline Sharply
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 11:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reports on weekly : In the week ending Nov. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 466,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 501,000 [revised from 505,000]. The 4-week moving average was 496,500, a decrease of 16,500 from the previous week's revised average of 513,000. ... The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 14 was 5,423,000, a decrease of 190,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,613,000. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 16,500 to 496,500. This is the lowest level since last November. This is good news - although the level is still high suggesting continuing job losses in November.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:15 AM » Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:15 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    So much data, so little time ... just catching up. This was released earlier today: Click on map for larger image. Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Thirty seven states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 12 states, and was unchanged in 1. Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index for October. In the past month, the indexes increased in 15 states (Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, and West Virginia), decreased in 27, and remained unchanged in eight (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, and Nevada) for a one month diffusion index of -24. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 12 states (Indiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, and West Virginia), decreased in 37, and remained unchanged in one (Idaho) for a three-month diffusion index of -50. The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator. Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged). Although the number of states in recession has been declining, a majority of states still showed declining activity in October.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:14 AM » Negative Equity Report for Q3
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the Q3 negative equity from First American CoreLogic mentioned last night. From the report: Negative equity, often referred to as “underwater” or “upside down,” means that borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth. Data Highlights Nearly 10.7 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity as of September, 2009. An additional 2.3 million mortgages were approaching negative equity, meaning they had less than five percent equity. Together negative equity and near negative equity mortgages account for nearly 28 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide. The distribution of negative equity is heavily concentrated in five states: Nevada (65 percent), which had the highest percentage negative equity, followed by Arizona (48 percent), Florida (45 percent), Michigan (37 percent) and California (35 percent). Among the top five states, the average negative equity share was 40 percent, compared to 14 percent for the remaining states. In numerical terms, California (2.4 million) and Florida (2.0 million) had the largest number of negative equity mortgages accounting for 4.4 million or 42 percent of all negative equity loans Click on image for larger graph in new window. This graph shows the negative equity and near negative equity by state. Although the five states mentioned above have the largest percentgage of homeowners underwater, a number of other states have 20% or more homeowners with mortgages with little or negative equity. Note: Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming are NA in the graph above. The second graph shows homeowners with severe negative equity for five states. These homeowners are far more likely to default. The rise in negative equity is closely tied to increases in pre-foreclosure activity. At one end of the spectrum, borrowers with equity tend to have very low default rates. At the other end, investors tend to default...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:13 AM » FOMC Minutes: "Unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time"
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:13 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The FOMC now sees economic risks balanced, as opposed to tilted towards the downside (I think this is too optimistic). And they also expect unemployment to remain elevated for some time. Here are the November . Committee Policy Action: [M]ost members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's objectives . Based on this outlook, members decided to maintain the federal funds target range at 0 to 1/4 percent and to continue to state their expectation that economic conditions were likely to warrant exceptionally low rates for an extended period. Low levels of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations were among the important factors underlying their expectation for monetary policy, and members agreed that policy communications would be enhanced by citing these conditions in the policy statement. Members noted the possibility that some negative side effects might result from the maintenance of very low short-term interest rates for an extended period, including the possibility that such a policy stance could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets or an unanchoring of inflation expectations. While members currently saw the likelihood of such effects as relatively low, they would remain alert to these risks. All agreed that the path of short-term rates going forward would be dependent on the evolution of the economic outlook. emphasis added Economic outlook: Most participants now viewed the risks to their growth forecasts as being roughly balanced rather than tilted to the downside , but uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was still viewed as quite elevated. Downside risks to growth included the continued weakness in the labor market and its implications for income growth and consumer confidence, as well as the potential for credit availability to remain...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:12 AM » The Future of the Securitization Business, Part II
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:12 AM by Seeking Alpha
    submits: The following is the second part of a 2-part series of posts on the future of the securitization business. To read Part I, which details a less rosy outlook for credit derivatives, go . It’s (semi-)official: securitization is making a comeback. Barring , most expect the securitization market to pick up rapidly in the next year or so, as evinced by the Federal Reserve’s of its mortgage-related assets purchase program.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
  • 10:12 AM » The Future of the Securitization Business, Part I
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:12 AM by Seeking Alpha
    submits: The following is the first part of a 2-part series of posts on the future of the securitization business. To read Part II, in which a brighter opinion of the securitization market is formed, go . Credit default swaps, once all the rage among investors in the days when multi-billion dollar investment banks such as Morgan Stanley () and Goldman Sachs () faced bankruptcy a little over a year ago, have slowed in appeal this year as global markets have made a big push towards risk.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
  • 10:12 AM » Single Family Homes Remain Oversupplied by Over 900,000 Units
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2009 10:12 AM by Seeking Alpha
    submits: Inventory of single-family homes fell 136,000 units in October, but they remain oversupplied by 913,000 units when compared to the long-run average.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Seeking Alpha
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