From The Times: The Government of Dubai said today that it will not stand behind its wholly-owned subsidiary Dubai World, prompting fears that the company’s creditors could lose billions of dollars. Today's comment, from Abdulrahman al-Saleh, the director general of Dubai’s Department of Finance, effectively confirms that country does not have enough money to repay Dubai World’s $60 billion of liabilities. ... From the Financial Times: From MarketWatch:

submits: The news of Willem Buiter’s role as Chief Economist at Citigroup () comes via DealBook at the New York Times: Citigroup said on Monday that it has hired Willem Buiter, a professor at the London School of Economics, as its chief economist, effective January 2010.

As noted in the October 19, 2009 Statement Regarding Reverse Repurchase Agreements, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been working internally and with market participants on operational aspects of triparty reverse repurchase agreements to ensure that this tool will be ready if the Federal Open Market Committee decides it should be used. In the coming weeks, as an extension of this work, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York plans to conduct a series of small-scale, real-value transactions with primary dealers. Like the earlier rounds of testing, this work is a matter of prudent advance planning by the Federal Reserve. It does not represent any change in the stance of monetary policy, and no inference should be drawn about the timing of any change in the stance of monetary policy in the future.

WASHINGTON - The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) today proposed new regulations to further reduce risks to its single-family insurance fund as it continues to play a critical role in today's housing market. FHA proposes to increase the net worth requirements of FHA-approved lenders, strengthen lender approval criteria, and make lenders liable for the practices of their correspondent mortgage brokers.

New York Fed purchases $16 billion net ($16 billion gross) in agency mortgage-backed securities

From the NRF: ... a National Retail Federation survey conducted over the weekend confirms the expected: more people spent less. According to NRF’s Black Friday shopping survey, conducted by BIGresearch, 195 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 172 million last year. However, the average spending over the weekend dropped to $343.31 per person from $372.57 a year ago. ... “Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to open their wallets for a bargain, heading out to take advantage of great deals on less expensive items like toys, small appliances and winter clothes,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. ... “During a more robust economy, people may be inclined to hit the “snooze” button on Black Friday, but high unemployment and a focus on price caused shoppers to visit stores early in anticipation of the best deals,” said Phil Rist, Executive Vice President, Strategic Initiatives, BIGresearch. * NRF’s definition of “Black Friday weekend” includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for Sunday. This is for "stores and websites" - not just brick and mortar.

It sounds like the permanent mod numbers will be grim ... From Peter Goodman at the NY Times: The Obama administration on Monday plans to announce a campaign to pressure mortgage companies to reduce payments for many more troubled homeowners, as evidence mounts that a $75 billion taxpayer-financed effort aimed at stemming foreclosures is foundering . “The banks are not doing a good enough job,” Michael S. Barr, Treasury’s assistant secretary for financial institutions, said in an interview Friday. ... “ I’ve been very frustrated by the pace of the program ,” said Senator Jeff Merkley , an Oregon Democrat who sits on the Senate Banking Committee. “ Very few people have emerged from the trial period .” ... Capitol Hill aides in regular contact with senior Treasury officials say a consensus has emerged inside the department that the program has proved inadequate , necessitating a new approach. ... "[A]t senior levels, where people are looking at this and thinking ‘Good God,’ there’s a sense that we need to think about doing something more.” said a Senate Democratic aide, who spoke on the condition he not be named for fear of angering the administration. emphasis added There is much more in the article. We will see the numbers in a couple of weeks.

Stock markets around the world cracked on Friday with the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 150 points ( Fig. 1 ), and commodities plunging as Dubai debt woes unnerved investors, and sent tremors of uncertainty throughout all markets.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board warned bluntly on Saturday that provisions in financial legislation before the House and Senate would "seriously impair" the Fed as it struggled to maintain financial and economic stability.

With the foreclosure crisis showing no signs of relenting, the Obama administration plans to expand a program aimed at helping people remain in their homes.

This mornings must read work is an article in the Sunday Washington Post by none other than Ben Bernanke, titled . It is a rational pushback against the like of Ron Paul and Chris Dodd’s programs to either hamstring or completely get rid of the Federal Reserve. As I have previously noted, being the only country with out a Central Bank would be like unilateral disarmament.Its a nice theory, but you will eventually be destroyed by your enemies. Here’s helicopter Ben: “These matters are complex, and Congress is still in the midst of considering how best to reform financial regulation. I am concerned, however, that a number of the legislative proposals being circulated would significantly reduce the capacity of the Federal Reserve to perform its core functions. Notably, some leading proposals in the Senate would strip the Fed of all its bank regulatory powers. And a House committee recently voted to repeal a 1978 provision that was intended to protect monetary policy from short-term political influence. These measures are very much out of step with the global consensus on the appropriate role of central banks, and they would seriously impair the prospects for economic and financial stability in the United States. The Fed played a major part in arresting the crisis, and we should be seeking to preserve, not degrade, the institution’s ability to foster financial stability and to promote economic recovery without inflation. The proposed measures are at least in part the product of public anger over the financial crisis and the government’s response, particularly the rescues of some individual financial firms. The government’s actions to avoid financial collapse last fall — as distasteful and unfair as some undoubtedly were — were unfortunately necessary to prevent a global economic catastrophe that could have rivaled the Great Depression in length and severity, with profound consequences for our economy and society. (I know something about this, having spent my career prior...

submits: By Paul Amery Does the announcement of a debt restructuring by a state-backed Dubai conglomerate signal a new wave of the crisis?

James Pressler at Northern Trust provides an overview of the Dubai situation: (pdf) A few excerpts: The complexities of the UAE’s governmental structure make the situation difficult to grasp at first glance, but the problem can be captured by a few basic points. First, Dubai is the second-largest emirate in the UAE next to Abu Dhabi, but Abu Dhabi is also the power of the national government and has been challenged by Dubai’s meteoric rise. Next, the UAE has a sovereign wealth fund estimated at one half-trillion dollars in case of emergency, so money is clearly available at the national level to bail out Dubai if that route is chosen. Lastly, the national government wants to emerge from this situation with international markets assured that a state-run entity has the backing of the government and will be subsequently subject to reform and accountability. Taken together, these points plus an appreciation of the politicial undercurrents suggest a scenario that avoids outright default. This suggests that Abu Dhabi will bailout Dubai, but that isn't certain: The first sign of things to come could be as early as the first week in December, when Gulf markets re-open from the Eid al-Adha holiday (Dubai World announcing its debt postponement plans just before Eid celebrations was in all likelihood not a coincidence). This will mark the first chance for officials to state positions and make confidence-building claims, with the further interest of calming international markets. Between that time and the December 14 due date for Dubai World’s next debt payment, we expect to see a concrete plan laid out for bailing out the conglomerate and some pressure taken off the credit markets. However, if no settlement can be reached, it would not surprise us if another major entity started talking about restructuring or a debt freeze before year-end – and not necessarily a company in the UAE. And from the Financial Times: [W]ith Dubai raising the possibility that one of its flagship entities...

Market Research Findings is reporting . Despite Challenging Economy, Black Friday Traffic To Online Shopping Sites Grows 10 Percent Year Over Year Nielsen Online, a service of the Nielsen Company, reported today that Web traffic from home and work to the Holiday eShopping Index increased 10 percent year over year on Black Friday, growing from 28.8 million unique visitors in 2007 to 31.7 million unique visitors in 2008 across more than 120 representative online retailers. Holiday eShopping Index Category Growth Consumer Electronics was the fastest growing product category on Friday, increasing 219 percent from the previous Friday, November 21st. Shopping Comparison/Portals and Toys/Videogames took the No. 2 and No. 3 spots, with 83 and 73 percent Web traffic growth, respectively. “Even with the weakening economy, an unstable stock market and a rising unemployment rate, Black Friday traffic to online retail sites grew at a double digit rate this year,” said Ken Cassar, vice president, industry insights, Nielsen Online. “Consumers are continuing to shift their holiday shopping to the Web for the convenience of not having to fight the crowds and to further stretch shrinking budgets. The fact that the Shopping Comparison/Portals category was the second fastest growing segment indicates that consumers continue to see the Web as the source for determining the best deals and prices of the season, which we expect to be top of mind for holiday shoppers this year.” Cassar continued, “With the season underway and consumers back at work, it will be interesting to compare activity for Cyber Monday and to see if the initial growth rate we saw on Black Friday holds up throughout the holiday shopping season.” Black Friday Top 10 Online Retail Destinations eBay was the top online retail destination on Black Friday with 9.8 million unique visitors, while Amazon and Wal-Mart followed with 8.4 million and 6.0 million unique visitors, respectively. Among the top ten online retail destinations...

The source of the current deficit matters when you try to figure out what kind of problem we have.

How far away can an appraiser be? - That's the question Charles W. Elliot Jr., MAI, SRA asked in his article "This question reminds me of the question of how long a man’s legs should be. U.S. President Abraham Lincoln is reported to have answered that question by saying, “Long enough to reach the ground.” "In appraisal distances, an analogy may be made that it varies with the person and the circumstance. Not to trivialize the issue, there are distances and locations that individual appraisers will find excessive to travel in order to provide professional appraisal service." "Having said that, some circumstances will warrant further distances than others and there can be no hard and fast rule. The circumstances that matter most in addressing the question, in my opinion are, the number of appraisers available to serve a specific location at a specific time, the geographic experience and competence of the appraiser, whether the assignment is commercial or residential and the availability of sales data." A couple of examples of some real-life issues relating to the above are: ■ The property is located in a rural county and there are only two appraisers serving the area. One has a reputation of providing poor service and the other is located 50 miles away from the subject property. The latter does good work, has access to all market data and has time in his schedule. ■ A known and trusted appraiser has served a radius of 60 miles for 20 years successfully, has performed many appraisals near the subject, has access to all MLS data, but lives 43 miles away from a subject property requiring evaluation. The bank assigning the appraisal is not able to confirm the availability of any other competent appraiser; however, there are a number of other appraisers located near the subject. Charlie W. Elliott Jr., MAI, SRA, is president of Elliott & Company Appraisers , a national real estate appraisal company. He can be reached at (800) 854-5889.

From Donna St. George at the WaPo: [A]ll of this began in the heady days of the mortgage boom ... [Ms. White] only knew that there seemed to be possibilities, even to those with little means such as herself, which is how a woman who had never paid more than $700 a month in rent and who had relied in recent years on Section 8 housing vouchers suddenly owned a house. A four-bedroom house. With 3 1/2 bathrooms. And walk-in closets, black granite countertops and a fireplace. You can already tell how this story will end. On settlement day, reality bore down. ... Papers were read and presented, most of which White did not try to decipher. ... White's papers cited income of $163,320 a year, even though she says her 2005 income-tax earnings were less than $15,000 and she relied at times on food stamps. ... White signed papers while waiting for the one she cared most about: her monthly payment. ... "Please let this be something I can afford," she said to herself. She was pretty sure she could afford $2,000. She told herself that if her day-care business did well, perhaps she could afford $2,500. If it was $2,800, she would struggle. Here, now, came reality: $5,635 a month. To get White to sign, the sellers - who were real estate agents - agreed to make the first two mortgage payments for Ms. White. According to the article, White received $40,000 in cash out at closing - and the seller made over $200,000 on the house. Naturally it went into foreclosure and Ms. White is back living in an apartment.

A short excerpt from the WSJ Developments: Already, builders report weak November traffic. One private builder in Raleigh, N.C. - long considered a strong market because of tech and higher-education employers - reports no shoppers in the first week, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. I've heard similar reports from real estate agents that the first two weeks of November were exceptionally weak, but that the phones started ringing again once the word spread that the tax credit had been extended. I wouldn't be surprised by a dip in New home sales in November - although existing home sales will probably still be fairly strong from people buying in September (existing home sales are reported at the close of escrow).

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index may have improved (48.7 in October to 49.5 in November) and beaten consensus expectations, but it remains firmly in recession terrain. It is so obvious that consumers are tired of the over-borrowing and over-spending days of yesteryear. Despite all the temptations provided by the government, auto buying plans dropped to an eight-month low (from 4.7 in October to 4.4 in November); home buying plans slipped to a new 27-year low of 2.3 (from 2.5 in October and 3.0 in September); and intentions to buy a major appliance stayed at a 14-year low (23.2). Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff When we first introduced the theme of U.S. consumer frugality well over a year ago, it was met in many circles with guffaws … Again, those expecting much better things from the labour market were probably not happy to see the job sub-indices in this report either; jobs hard to get (49.4 in October to 49.8 in November) and jobs are plentiful (3.5 to 3.2) hit their worst levels in 26 years. In terms of financial markets, and this is a good contrary indicator, those expecting the equity market to go up (33.1 to 36.3) and those expecting it to go down (28.7 to 23.8) have moved to levels last seen in July 2007 (right when the market was peaking out and about to roll over). Interest rate expectations, meanwhile, have moved in a bullish direction for bonds. Those respondents expecting yields to rise went from 50.1 to 51.3 in November and those expecting yields to fall slipped from 15.3 to 12.9 — levels last posted in August 2007 in what were the early stages of one of the biggest bond rallies in the past 30 years. When we first introduced the theme of U.S. consumer frugality well over a year ago, it was met in many circles with guffaws. But indeed, Americans do have resolve and do have the ability to live within their means. Have a look at the front cover of the USA Today — The Spirit of This Season: Be Thankful...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were sharply lower on Friday, a day after markets were shut for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, as a possible debt default at a Dubai state-owned conglomerate sparked fears of renewed global financial turmoil.