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  • Wed, Apr 25 2018
  • 3:26 PM » LendingClub plunges after FTC charges the online lender of 'deceiving customers'
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 3:26 PM by CNBC
    LendingClub, a pioneer in online marketplace lending, is facing yet another challenge, this time from the FTC.
  • 3:26 PM » NMHC: Apartment Market Tightness Index remained negative for Tenth Consecutive Quarter
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 3:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): April NMHC Quarterly Survey Shows Greater Supply Improving Affordability Apartment market conditions were uneven, according to results from the April National Multifamily Housing Council's (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. The Market Tightness (38), Sales Volume (43) and Debt Financing (36) Indexes landed below the breakeven level of 50, while the Equity Financing Index decreased to 54. "Apartment markets continue to send mixed signals," said NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. " While respondents indicated more markets are loosening than tightening, this was focused in markets that have experienced greater supply . So, the message is clear, if unsurprising: Increasing supply improves affordability." The Market Tightness Index increased two points to 38. This was the tenth consecutive quarter of overall declining conditions. Thirty-eight percent of respondents reported looser market conditions than three months prior, compared to only 14 percent who reported tighter conditions. Meanwhile, nearly half of respondents (47 percent) felt that conditions were no different from last quarter. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index. Any reading below 50 indicates looser conditions from the previous quarter. This indicates market conditions were looser over the last quarter. As I've mentioned before, this index helped me call the bottom for effective rents (and the top for the vacancy rate) early in 2010. This is the tenth consecutive quarterly survey indicating looser conditions - it appears supply has caught up with demand - and I expect rent growth to continue to slow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:20 PM » Two-Thirds of Americans Say They Would Likely Move If It Wasn't Such a Hassle
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 1:20 PM by PR Newswire
    AUSTIN, Texas, April 25, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The month of May marks the official start of moving season, the timeframe between Memorial Day and Labor Day when many Americans make the decision to pack their belongings and move to a new home. SpareFoot, the world's largest online...
  • 11:36 AM » Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 47 states in March
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 11:36 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2018. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. In the past month, the indexes increased in 47 states , decreased in one, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 92. emphasis added Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state's index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state's index matches long-term growth in its GDP. Click on map for larger image. Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and all or mostly green during most of the recent expansion. Once again, the map is mostly green on a three month basis. Source: Philly Fed. Note: For complaints about red / green issues, please contact the Philly Fed . And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged). In March, 48 states had increasing activity (including minor increases). The downturn in 2015 and 2016, in the number of states increasing, was mostly related to the decline in oil prices.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:55 AM » Everyone's watching the 10-year yield, but this is the real rate that matters
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 10:55 AM by CNBC
    While the 10-year Treasury note is garnering all the headlines, investors might be better off watching much shorter duration debt to figure out what's really happening in the markets. The 2-year note rose above 2.5 percent Wednesday, a level it last saw in July 2008, just two months before the financial crisis imploded with the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
  • 9:58 AM » Chemical Activity Barometer "Eases" in April
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 9:58 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Eases Following Six Consecutive Monthly Gains; Trends Suggest Growth into Early 2019 The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), slipped 0.1 percent in April to 121.6 percent on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis . This follows six consecutive monthly gains and a dip from the barometer's highest point since modeling began. The barometer remains up 3.8 percent on a 3MMA compared to a year earlier. ... Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue). The year-over-year increase in the CAB has been solid over the last year, suggesting further gains in industrial production in 2018.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:35 AM » Can't Blame 3% Bond Yield for This Stock Rout
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 8:35 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The Daily Prophet: Can't Blame 3% Bond Yield for This Stock Rout Bloomberg There's been a lot of handwringing lately over what would happen to stocks once benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields reached 3 percent. Well, yields breached that level on Tuesday for the first time since January 2014, but that wasn't really why the ... and more »
  • 8:35 AM » Stock futures slip as U.S. yield holds above 3 percent
    Published Wed, Apr 25 2018 8:35 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. equity futures pointed to a fifth day of losses for the main indexes on Wednesday, spooked by a rise in bond yields and nerves ahead of earnings from scandal-hit Facebook.
  • Tue, Apr 24 2018
  • 4:50 PM » It's clear the market is telling us there is a problem up ahead
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 4:50 PM by CNBC
    It's clear there is some kind of problem ahead, whether its peak economic growth, peak profits, a looming trade war, political upheaval at home or a geopolitical event abroad.
  • 2:26 PM » Wall Street sunk by corporate cost warnings, bond nerves
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 2:26 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Wall Street dropped sharply on Tuesday as concerns over marquee companies warning of higher costs were exacerbated by the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield piercing the 3-percent level for the first time in four years.
  • 2:26 PM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 2:26 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.3% year-over-year in February It has been eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 8.2% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 10.8% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 6%. In February, the index was up 6.3% YoY. Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $284,000 today adjusted for inflation (42%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through February) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA)and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) are both at new all times highs (above the bubble peak). Real House Prices The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to November 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to May 2004. In real terms, house prices are back to 2004 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value . Kainer and Wei presented a price-to-rent ratio using the OFHEO house price...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:40 PM » U.S. consumer confidence, housing data highlight economy's strength
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 1:40 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in April and new home sales increased more than expected in March, pointing to underlying strength in the economy despite signs that growth slowed in the first quarter.
  • 12:41 PM » Homebuyers are stretching their budgets and mortgage limits to win bidding wars
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 12:41 PM by CNBC
    As the housing market gets ever more competitive and affordability weakens, buyers are doing all they can to win bidding wars and homes.
  • 10:09 AM » Consumer confidence at 128.7 in April, vs 126 reading expected
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 10:09 AM by CNBC
    Consumer confidence at 128.7 in April, vs 126 reading expected|| 105154682
  • 10:03 AM » Tax Changes Mean Mortgage-Interest Deduction Finds Fewer Takers
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 10:03 AM by www.realtor.com
    The new mortgage-interest deduction is smaller and much more concentrated among high-income households. The post Tax Changes Mean Mortgage-Interest Deduction Finds Fewer Takers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:50 AM » This trader sees the 10-year yield close to 4 percent
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 8:50 AM by CNBC
    Investors are watching for 3 percent on the 10-year, but one trader says it could reach 3.9 percent this year.
  • 8:45 AM » The New Way to Invest in Real Estate Starts With Emailing Rich People
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 8:45 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg The New Way to Invest in Real Estate Starts With Emailing Rich People Bloomberg Real estate fund managers Michael Episcope and David Scherer had Georgia on their minds-specifically, Atlanta. The city, part of the third-largest-gaining metro area in the U.S. last year, according to Census Bureau data, was only getting hotter. So ... and more »
  • 8:44 AM » Is the Great Bull Market in Bonds Over? - Bloomberg Video
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 8:44 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Is the Great Bull Market in Bonds Over? Bloomberg The nearly forty-year bull market in bonds is still in place per the downtrend in the ten-year yield, but is it about to be broken to the upside? Is this a possibility that could herald a bear market for bonds? On "Charting Futures," Mike O'Rourke ... and more »
  • 8:44 AM » Redfin Housing Demand Index Fell 6.5% From February to March as Fewer Homes Hit the Market
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 8:44 AM by www.redfin.com
    The Redfin Housing Demand Index fell 6.5 percent month over month to 105 in March, the second consecutive month of declines this year. The post Redfin Housing Demand Index Fell 6.5% From February to March as Fewer Homes Hit the Market appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:39 AM » The 10-year Treasury yield above 3% could cause 'proper herding' into tech stocks, fund manager says
    Published Tue, Apr 24 2018 8:39 AM by CNBC
    Higher U.S. bond yields could cause investors to herd into technology stocks, according to one fund manager.
  • Mon, Apr 23 2018
  • 4:20 PM » Tax bill will slash by half the number of homeowners claiming the mortgage deduction
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 4:20 PM by CNBC
    About 13.8 million taxpayers will use the mortgage interest deduction in 2018, down from 32.3 million last year.
  • 3:39 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in March: Sales up 3%, Inventory down 13% YoY
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 3:39 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in March were up 3.3% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes). 2) Active inventory is now down 12.9% year-over-year.   This is the seventeenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory . March Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Sales Cash Sales Percent Cash Active Inventory YoY Change Inventory Mar-08 4,303 --- 822 19.1% 57,081 1 --- Mar-09 7,636 77.5% 2,994 39.2% 49,743 -12.9% Mar-10 8,969 17.5% 3,745 41.8% 42,755 -14.0% Mar-11 9,927 10.7% 4,946 49.8% 37,632 -12.0% Mar-12 8,868 -10.7% 4,222 47.6% 21,863 -41.9% Mar-13 8,146 -8.1% 3,384 41.5% 20,729 -5.2% Mar-14 6,708 -17.7% 2,222 33.1% 30,167 45.5% Mar-15 7,884 17.5% 2,172 27.5% 26,623 -11.7% Mar-16 8,555 8.5% 2,107 24.6% 27,580 3.6% Mar-17 9,304 8.8% 2,226 23.9% 24,871 -9.8% Mar-18 9,615 3.3% 2,435 25.3% 21,669 -12.9% 1 March 2008 probably included pending listings
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:29 PM » First Time Homebuyer Costs Up 9% In Last Year: TABLE
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 3:29 PM by The Basis Point
    Table from John Burns Real Estate Consulting shows market getting tougher for new buyers. The post First Time Homebuyer Costs Up 9% In Last Year: TABLE appeared first on The Basis Point .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
  • 2:54 PM » Bill to Require Issuance of Guidance by CFPB Introduced in House
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 2:54 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    A recent bill introduced in the US House of Representatives would require the CFPB to issue guidance on federal consumer financial laws, and also provide a framework for civil money penalties. H.R. 5534 would create the Give Useful Information to Define Effective Compliance Act or GUIDE Compliance Act. The bill was introduced by Representative Sean... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 2:38 PM » 'Bond King' Gundlach says closing above 3% on 10-year yield will spark even higher rates
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 2:38 PM by CNBC
    Gundlach's comments came from the sidelines of the Sohn Conference in New York.
  • 1:55 PM » Fannie Mae Announces Updates to its Mortgage-Backed ...
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 1:55 PM by Fannie Mae
    News Release. Share This: April 23, 2018. Fannie Mae Announces Updates to its Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Prospectus ...
  • 12:37 PM » Freddie Mac Names Sam Khater Vice President and Chief Economist
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 12:37 PM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Names Sam Khater Vice President and Chief Economist
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:49 AM » Morgan Stanley Expects 10-Year Yield Below 2.5% by Year End
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 11:49 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Expects 10-Year Yield Below 2.5% by Year End Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Interest-Rate Strategy Global Co-Head Matthew Hornbach and BlackRock Portfolio Manager Tony Despirito discuss the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 3 percent. They speak on "Bloomberg Markets: The Open." (Source: Bloomberg). Terms ...
  • 11:36 AM » State Employment Performance- March 2018
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 11:36 AM by blog.stewart.com
    Jobs are everything to an economy. Period. The following table shows the top-10 states' job growth rates for the 12-months ending March 2018 using the 2018 revised data from the BLS (which tweaked numbers all the way back to 1990). In addition to the one-year job growth rate, also included are the overall rankings for … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 9:18 AM » Chicago Fed "Index points to a moderation in economic growth in March"
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 9:18 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index points to a moderation in economic growth in March Led by slower growth in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.10 in March from +0.98 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from February, but two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in March. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.27 in March from +0.31 in February. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was above the historical trend in February (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:36 AM » The 10-year Treasury yield could be about to hit 3 percent — here's why this matters
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    All eyes are on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield on Monday as it could imminently hit the 3 percent threshold.
  • 8:34 AM » 10 Surprising Cities Where Bidding Wars Are Booming
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 8:34 AM by www.realtor.com
    We already know the places that have the most bidding wars. So instead, the data team at realtor.com set out the find the places where bidding wars are increasing at the fastest clip. The post Housing Knife Fights! 10 Surprising Cities Where Bidding Wars Are Booming appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:33 AM » World Stocks stumble as U.S. yields near 3 percent
    Published Mon, Apr 23 2018 8:33 AM by Reuters
    LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks slipped on Monday as investors braced for a blizzard of earnings from the world's largest firms, while keeping a wary eye on U.S. bond yields as they approach peaks that have triggered market spasms in the past.
  • Fri, Apr 20 2018
  • 4:30 PM » U.S. banks push mortgage apps as home lending slows
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 4:30 PM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Big U.S. banks are racing to launch websites and mobile apps to make getting a mortgage faster and easier, investments that may have modest near-term payoffs as home lending activity slows.
  • 3:17 PM » Flat yield curve? Not to worry, Fed policymakers say
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 3:17 PM by Reuters
    CHICAGO/SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - As the gap between short- and long-term borrowing costs hovers near its lowest in 10 years, some investors worry the so-called yield curve is flashing red: that a recession, always preceded by such a flattening, could be around the corner.
  • 3:14 PM » Fed's Kashkari: Bond market is 'yellow light flashing' about a possible recession
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 3:14 PM by CNBC
    The bond market is indicating that the economy could be nearing a recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said.
  • 2:12 PM » A Debt Crisis Seems To Have Come Out Of Nowhere
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 2:12 PM by www.npr.org
    Two dozen countries are at risk. What's behind this looming disaster? And can it be fixed?
  • 2:11 PM » Fed governor Brainard: Rising trade tensions are a 'material uncertainty' to the economic outlook
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 2:11 PM by CNBC
    Further escalation of trade tensions could raise worries about the global economic recovery, a top Federal Reserve official said Friday.
  • 2:11 PM » Four Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 2:11 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The advance Q1 GDP report will be released next Friday, April 27th.   The consensus is for real GDP growth of 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Here are four Q1 GDP forecast. From Merrill Lynch: We expect real GDP growth to slow to 1.7% qoq saar in the advance 1Q report [April 20 estimate]. From Nomura: We expect the first reading of Q1 real GDP growth to come in at 1.6% q-o-q saar [April 20 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.0 percent on April 17, up from 1.9 percent on April 16. [April 17 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.9% for 2018:Q1 and 3.0% for 2018:Q2. [April 20 estimate] CR Note: It looks like another quarter around 2% or so, although there might still be some residual seasonality in the first quarter.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:10 PM » What consumers need to know about the Wells Fargo settlement
    Published Fri, Apr 20 2018 2:10 PM by CNBC
    Car and home loan borrowers who are affected by the Wells Fargo settlement can expect to get a refund.
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