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Bond Markets Move Into Positive Territory After NFP; Could be Better, Could be Worse
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, August 1, 2014 8:45 AM

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  • July NFP +209k vs +233k forecast, June revised to 298k from 288k, May revised to 229k from 224k
  • Unemployment Rate 6.2 vs 6.1 forecast, 6.1 previously
  • participation rate 62.9 vs 62.8 forecast/previous
  • Private payrolls 198k vs 230k forecast, June revised toe 270k from 262k
  • Hourly earnings 0.0 vs +0.2 forecast/previous
  • Workweek unchanged at 34.5

After coming into the domestic session at slightly weaker levels, the NFP miss has been enough to get Treasuries and MBS back into positive territory.  That's great, and much better than the alternative, but the rally is lackluster so far, and has already seen the first major bounce. 

If we end up not gaining much ground (or even losing ground) by the end of the day, it would be a strong negative statement on the longer term trend.  Or rather, it would add to the strong negative statement on the longer term trend we received with Wednesday's GDP.  Sadly, the absence of a stronger move right out of the gate already says a lot about the current state of play in bond markets.  Uphill battle.

Fannie 3.5s are up 4 ticks on the day at 101-31 and 10yr yields are down only half a bp at 2.552.  S&P futures moved 6-7 points higher from overnight lows, but aren't yet back to yesterday's latest levels.

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