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Quick Move to New Lows; No Major Reprice Risk Yet
Posted to: Micro News
Monday, July 14, 2014 10:44 AM
Fannie 3.5s just moved from 102-11 to 102-08 in fairly short order. In the same 3-4 minutes, 10yr yields spiked (relatively) to 2.550 from 2.535. That's not necessarily a big move in the grand scheme, but it stands out in the context of a fairly narrow morning.
So far, we don't have any obvious scapegoat for the move. It's worth remembering just how light participation has been so far today though. The thinner the market, the easier it is for one big trade to kick off a run in either direction. Given the absence of a an accompanying move in stocks, and the fact that Treasuries already made a reasonable attempt to bounce, this could simply be "nothing."
It's also worth remembering that the technical landscape began shifting a bit at the end of last week, and we could simply be witnessing a bumpy reversal at recent rate lows before yet another move back to the higher end of a narrow range.
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