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Gains Mostly Holding; Slight Pull-Back in MBS; Uneventful Trading Day so Far
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, July 11, 2014 2:34 PM

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At the risk of "calling it" before "it" is technically over, the trading day was essentially over at 11am.  Participation fell off and we've spent a roughly equal time on either side of the 11am prices/yields. 

There continues to be no salient connection between events in the market place and movements in MBS/Treasuries.  If we were forced to pick one, we might note the LOOSE correlations with equities. 

With that in mind, stocks have been improving since just after 12:30pm and bond markets have come off their best levels.  But until/unless we see a bit more weakness here in bonds, the "over at 11am" thing looks like the case. 

To be fair and cautious, there's always a chance that prices will leak lower into the afternoon.  Lighter participation means it takes less initiative (read: less $) to move prices.  If that's going to happen, it will probably be apparent soon.   

MBS, specifically are already pushing it a bit with prices down 3 ticks from the highs (102-15 vs 102-18).  That said, we've seen very few positive reprices, and none of them priced in the full move up to 102-18.  That would suggest no reprice risk at the moment.  We'd need to see 2-3 ticks of further weakness before that changed materially.

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