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Bond Markets Under Pressure as New Quarter Begins
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, July 01, 2014 9:31 AM

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This is one of those days where MBS and Treasuries' day-over-day changes look far apart (MBS down 5 ticks, Treasuries down 11), but this is a factor of Treasuries marking yesterday's closing prices at 3pm, combined with additional bond market weakness after 3pm. 

That 'weakness' is the only story so far in that there's no event or headline to blame.  If anything, we're seeing that bounce back in tradeflows with the start of the new quarter that we've discussed in the run up to today. 

Overnight, Asian trading hours were fairly uneventful, if slightly weaker for Treasuries.  European hours brought more concerted selling (and again, for no overt reason) with 10yr yields hitting 2.558 by 6:30am ET.  There was a modest bounce back to slightly better levels as the domestic session got underway, but it's just been completely wiped out in the space of 10 minutes.

During that time, 10yr yields moved up from 2.547 to 2.5611 moments ago.  MBS are on the ropes as well (but still standing/fighting), down 7 ticks at 102-19 after being as high as 102-23 earlier this morning.  The dividing line between nominal post-quarter-end weakness and something more serious would be a sustained break above 2.57 in 10yr yields--not quite there yet.

The next major event on the calendar is ISM Manufacturing at 10am. 




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Mortgage Rates:
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.11%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.73%
MBS Prices:
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-27 (-0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-29 (-0-01)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%