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Quarter-End Rebalancing Flows Helping Bonds
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, June 27, 2014 9:44 AM

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There is precious little going on in bond markets overnight and this morning apart from the 'tradeflow considerations' referenced in The Day Ahead.  When it comes to identifying trading patterns likely stemming from quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, one of the clues is the stock lever (i.e. stock prices and bond yields moving together).

In the case of rebalancing though, it's just a bit different than the normal stock lever because while the relative movements are similar in magnitude, the peaks and valleys are offset just slightly.  Normally, they'd be right on top of each other.  In other words, it's almost as if you can see the script: "sell stocks, then buy bonds" and vice versa. 

Asian and European market participants danced this tango all night with most of the gains for Treasuries seen during Asian hours.  Bonds started the domestic session in mildly positive territory and have added to those gains just slightly. 

The only data on tap is Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.  Markets haven't been too keen on responding to this data in 2014, but a gentle nudge isn't out of the question.

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