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Bond Markets at Better Levels on Stock Swoon, Fed-Speak, Europe Sympathy
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, June 26, 2014 10:11 AM

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Prices briefly approached levels consistent with positive reprices, but have pulled back just slightly in the past few minutes.  MBS were up another 4 ticks from morning rate sheet print times, but that gain has been pared to only 2 ticks now.  Fannie 3.5s are up 6 ticks in total on the day at 102-26 and 10yr yields are down 3.2bps to 2.527. 

Several sources to consider:

  • S&P dropped a quick 10 points in the first 20 minutes of trade.  The bounce at 9:50am coincides with Treasury yields hitting their lows so this "stock lever" hypothesis is as good as any.
  • Fed's Bullard and Lacker have both been speaking during the rally.  There are no glaringly obvious market movers among their sound bytes, but Bullard did say he believes long run growth potential is in the "low 2's" and also that he would push back his forecast for a Q2 rate hike if data disappointed
  • Europe...  European bond markets continue to rally to the best levels of the year.  That's always worth at least some sympathy bid from Treasuries.

At 2.527, 10yr yields are trading below the 2.529 resistance level set yesterday.  That's as strong a showing as could be hoped for before this afternoon's 7yr Auction.  That said, trading levels after the auction will be more relevant to the outlook (i.e. we could forgive some volatility between now and then as mere pre-auction hesitation).  For now, things are good--almost good enough for positive reprices.

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.67%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (0-00)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 11.33%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 8.43%