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Bond Markets Weakening after Philly Fed, and Technical Resistance
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, June 19, 2014 10:39 AM

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Treasuries were already hitting some turbulence around the 2.57 technical level (what's a technical level?) and continue to head back from whence they came following the Philly Fed data.  Here's a run-down:

  • Philly Fed (June) 17.8 vs 14.0 forecast (15.4 in May)
  • Big jump in 6-month outlook 52.0 vs 37.4 in May
  • New Orders jumped from 10.5 to 16.8
  • Employment improved modestly from 7.8 to 11.9

All told, it's a strong report, and probably worthy of more selling pressure than it initially created at 10am.  Since then, however, 10yr yields have had that ongoing problem getting through 2.57.  If they're not getting through 2.57, there's only one other place to go.

10's are currently back up to 2.5844.  Fannie 3.5s are still up 2 ticks on the day, but down 3 from the highs.  Lender rate sheet print times also line up with the highs, so the next tick or two weaker will bring us into a "reprice risk" situation.

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