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MBS and Treasury Rally Continues; Best Levels of 2014
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, May 29, 2014 10:57 AM

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The sideways vibe in place this morning has now given way to moderate gains.  That's pretty impressive considering the morning was sideways near the year's best levels.  As such, the moderate gains make for new 2014 records.

More importantly, 10yr yields are currently below 2.42% which has been an important technical level in the past.  But keep in mind that we're dealing with technical levels so long term that there's no perfectly precise trading level that acts as "the one" inflection point.  In this zone, anything from 2.42 to 2.33 could be considered one big "inflection zone." 

Some technicians will likely key in on the fact that 2.41 is the 38% retracement of the move from 2012 lows to 2013 highs.  That sets the bar a bit higher for labeling today's move significant, but 10's are already at 2.406, so it's certainly a possibility.  Moving lower past 2.40 would increase the odds of another snowball rally today, but if we see that, be aware that such a rally would set us up for a quick snap back to this 2.40-2.42 range.

MBS have backed off a bit from their recent streak of outperformance, though they're still into their best levels of the year.  Fannie 3.5s are currently up 6 ticks at 103-14.

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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%