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Bond Markets Reasonably Flat Following GDP, Claims
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, May 29, 2014 9:07 AM

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If part of yesterday's rally had indeed been to cover the risk of a worse-than-expected GDP print (more on that here), then bond markets did a pretty good job of 'buying the rumor.'  Reason being: despite a reading of -1.0 vs a -0.5 forecast, bond markets are still holding steady near yesterday's latest levels.  Stronger Jobless Claims data could also be offsetting the data somewhat.  Here's a run-down of both sets of data:

GDP

  • Q1 preliminary GDP (1st revision) -1.0 vs -0.5 forecast
  • First decline since 2011
  • most of decline due to drop in business inventories +$49 bln vs +87.4 bln previously

Jobless Claims

  • Claims 300k vs 318k forecast, 327k previously
  • Continued Claims 2.631 mln vs 2.65 mln forecast

Ahead of the data, Treasuries were coming off a reasonably strong overnight session that saw 10yr yields as low as 2.4219.  By 8am, yields were nearly unchanged at 2.434--pretty uneventful for the morning after a big rally.  MBS opened just slightly stronger but still within yesterday's range.

Immediately following the data, both MBS and Treasuries improved briefly and then pulled back to microscopically weaker levels.  Fannie 3.5s are currently down only 1 tick at 103-08, and 10yr yields just made it back to positive territory, down 0.004 at 2.434.




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