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Rally Getting Progressively More Serious
Posted to: Micro News
Wednesday, May 28, 2014 10:20 AM

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If bond markets were to close right now, current levels would officially constitute a break below the epic 2.47% inflection point.  While such epic breaks would still require 'confirmation' from a consecutive close in the new territory, momentum is clearly tilted toward better buying.

Unlike the last run at 2.47, this one isn't inspired by European markets.  10yr Treasuries just moved noticeably into new lows of the day even as Germany's 10yr yields held their previous lows.

Some of the snowball in bond market tradeflows is being chalked up to early 'month-end' buying among money managers who are forced to match their portfolios to various indices. Other, more tactical traders may be taking a 'lead-off' ahead of tomorrow's GDP revision.  While these factors don't explain all of the gains, they're both in line with the existing positivity. 

10's are now down to 2.459 and Fannie 3.5s are up more than 3/8th of a point at 103-04.  Most of these gains were intact before the first rate sheets of the day, thus limiting positive reprice potential.




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